If you havent received a signal-your probability assessment is(1-z)p/ (z+p-2pz If you have recieved a signal, your probability assessment is zp/(1-z-p+2pz) If there are two people, the situation is even harder- there are actually eight states of the world based on the signal that each person has recievedIf you haven’t received a signal– your probability assessment is (1-z)p/(zp-2pz). If you have recieved a signal, your probability assessment is zp/(1-z-p2pz). If there are two people, the situation is even harder– there are actually eight states of the world based on the signal that each person has recieved