NATIONAL AFFAIRS WINTER 2013 students. They have black students with admissions statistics [that are very high, tops. But these students wind up majoring in sociology or recreation or get wiped out altogether. a more recent study by University of Virginia psychologists Frederick Smyth and John McArdle(now at the University of Southern California)confirmed Elliotts findings. And the effects were not subtle In"Ethnic and gender Differences in Science graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admissions Policy and College Choice, Smyth and McArdle found that, among a sample of under-represented minority students at 23 universities who intended to mathematics, or engineering, 45% more of the women and 35%more of the men would have succeeded in attaining their goals if they had at- tended schools where their entering credentials had been about average Another study-this one by richard Sander, co-author of Mismatch and UCLA statistician Roger Bolus-pulled data from nine University of California campuses. The authors came to a similar conclusion "Minority attrition in science is a very real problem, they wrote, "and the evidence in this paper suggests that negative mismatch' probably plays a role in it. Their multiple approaches to the data yielded con- sistent results: "[S]tudents with credentials more than one standard deviation below their science peers at college are about half as likely to end up with science bachelor degrees, compared with similar students attending schools where their credentials are much closer to, or above, he mean credentials of their peers he evidence that mismatch has hurt African-American and Hispanic tudents chances of having careers in science or engineering was high lighted in a report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 20l0. The data and methodology of the research have not been challenged. The researchers' conclusions have not been rebutted. Nevertheless. the find ings have been ignored by colleges and universities. Indeed, one of the arguments that the University of Texas makes before the Supreme Court in the Fisher case is that there are not enough minority students study- ing science and engineering to make those classrooms racially diverse As a result, it claims, greater race preferences in admissions are needed But Texas's race-preferential admissions will likely aggravate rather than alleviate this problem. The more colleges and universities engage in pref- erential treatment, the fewer the African-Americans and Hispanics who will graduate with degrees in science and engineering 84National Affairs · Winter 2013 84 students. They have black students with admissions statistics [that are] very high, tops. But these students wind up majoring in sociology or recreation or get wiped out altogether.” A more recent study by University of Virginia psychologists Frederick Smyth and John McArdle (now at the University of Southern California) confirmed Elliott’s findings. And the effects were not subtle. In “Ethnic and Gender Differences in Science Graduation at Selective Colleges with Implications for Admissions Policy and College Choice,” Smyth and McArdle found that, among a sample of under-represented minority students at 23 universities who intended to major in science, mathematics, or engineering, 45% more of the women and 35% more of the men would have succeeded in attaining their goals if they had at￾tended schools where their entering credentials had been about average. Another study—this one by Richard Sander, co-author of Mismatch, and UCLA statistician Roger Bolus—pulled data from nine University of California campuses. The authors came to a similar conclusion. “Minority attrition in science is a very real problem,” they wrote, “and the evidence in this paper suggests that ‘negative mismatch’ probably plays a role in it.” Their multiple approaches to the data yielded con￾sistent results: “[S]tudents with credentials more than one standard deviation below their science peers at college are about half as likely to end up with science bachelor degrees, compared with similar students attending schools where their credentials are much closer to, or above, the mean credentials of their peers.” The evidence that mismatch has hurt African-American and Hispanic students’ chances of having careers in science or engineering was high￾lighted in a report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in 2010. The data and methodology of the research have not been challenged. The researchers’ conclusions have not been rebutted. Nevertheless, the find￾ings have been ignored by colleges and universities. Indeed, one of the arguments that the University of Texas makes before the Supreme Court in the Fisher case is that there are not enough minority students study￾ing science and engineering to make those classrooms racially diverse. As a result, it claims, greater race preferences in admissions are needed. But Texas’s race-preferential admissions will likely aggravate rather than alleviate this problem. The more colleges and universities engage in pref￾erential treatment, the fewer the African-Americans and Hispanics who will graduate with degrees in science and engineering