工程科学学报，第38卷，第10期：1438-1446,2016年10月 Chinese Journal of Engineering,Vol.38,No.10:1438-1446,October 2016 D0l:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2016.10.013;http://journals..ustb.edu.cn 三元乙丙橡胶老化与气候关联性及老化程度全国分 布预测 吴德权”，高瑾四，卢琳”，李文倩”，李晓刚2) 1)北京科技大学腐蚀与防护中心，北京1000832)中国科学院宁波材料技术与工程研究所，宁波315201 ☒通信作者，E-mail:gaojin@usth.cdu.cn 摘要利用三元乙丙橡胶(EPDM)在我国11个典型大气站点暴晒3年的老化数据及气候环境数据，基于对EPDM老化行 为分析以及气候环境对EPDM作用机制，探究EPDM老化与气候因子之间的关联性.通过因子分析与逼近理想解排序法，将 多个老化指标转化为综合老化值：由灰色关联度分析，得到影响EPDM老化的关键气候因子为辐照度、湿度、温度和降雨：通 过BP人工神经网络，建立EPDM综合老化值与气候因子间关联模型.利用我国97个地市级城市气象数据，预测EPDM在未 试验地区综合老化值，可视化得到EPDM在我国的老化分布图.图形表明，EPDM在我国西部地区，新疆南部、云南南端、广东 南部、海南、台湾等地区老化程度较严重. 关键词三元乙丙橡胶；老化：大气环境：关联性：预测 分类号TQ333.4 Correlation between EPDM aging properties and climate as well as prediction of the distribution of EPDM aging degree in China WU De-quan',GA0Jim)回，LU Lin',lWen-gian”,山Xiao-gang2 1)Corrosion and Protection Center,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China 2)Ningbo Institute of Material Technology Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Ningho 315201,China Corresponding author,E-mail:gaojin@ustb.edu.cn ABSTRACT Based on the analysis of aging behavior of ethylene propylene diene rubber (EPDM)and the mechanism of action of climate on EPDM,the aging data of EPDM exposed for 3 years in 11 typical material weathering test stations and the meteorological data there were studied to find out the relation between atmospheric environment and EPDM aging properties.By using the factor anal- ysis and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS),the comprehensive values of aging properties were gained.With the grey correlation analysis,sever environmental parameters including irradiance,humidity,temperature were found to be the key climate factors which had a significant relation with the degradation of EPDM.Then a BP artificial neural network that con- nected the climate factors and EPDM aging properties was built.By inputting the meteorological data of cities,the comprehensive val- ues of EPDM aging properties where weathering test had not been performed were predicted and a distribution map of these comprehen- sive values was draw out.The results show that the aging of EPDM in the south of Guangdong Province,Hainan Island,Taiwan Is- land,Tibet,and south of Xinjiang are the most serious. KEY WORDS EPDM:aging;atmospheric environment:correlation:prediction 收稿日期：2015-12-16 基金项目：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(51133009)：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2014CB643300):国家材料环境腐蚀平台资助 项目(2005DKA10400)工程科学学报，第 38 卷，第 10 期: 1438--1446，2016 年 10 月 Chinese Journal of Engineering，Vol． 38，No． 10: 1438--1446，October 2016 DOI: 10． 13374 /j． issn2095--9389． 2016． 10． 013; http: / /journals． ustb． edu． cn 三元乙丙橡胶老化与气候关联性及老化程度全国分 布预测 吴德权1) ，高 瑾1) ，卢 琳1) ，李文倩1) ，李晓刚1，2) 1) 北京科技大学腐蚀与防护中心，北京 100083 2) 中国科学院宁波材料技术与工程研究所，宁波 315201  通信作者，E-mail: gaojin@ ustb． edu． cn 摘 要 利用三元乙丙橡胶( EPDM) 在我国 11 个典型大气站点暴晒 3 年的老化数据及气候环境数据，基于对 EPDM 老化行 为分析以及气候环境对 EPDM 作用机制，探究 EPDM 老化与气候因子之间的关联性． 通过因子分析与逼近理想解排序法，将 多个老化指标转化为综合老化值; 由灰色关联度分析，得到影响 EPDM 老化的关键气候因子为辐照度、湿度、温度和降雨; 通 过 BP 人工神经网络，建立 EPDM 综合老化值与气候因子间关联模型． 利用我国 97 个地市级城市气象数据，预测 EPDM 在未 试验地区综合老化值，可视化得到 EPDM 在我国的老化分布图． 图形表明，EPDM 在我国西部地区，新疆南部、云南南端、广东 南部、海南、台湾等地区老化程度较严重． 关键词 三元乙丙橡胶; 老化; 大气环境; 关联性; 预测 分类号 TQ333. 4 Correlation between EPDM aging properties and climate as well as prediction of the distribution of EPDM aging degree in China WU De-quan1) ，GAO Jin1)  ，LU Lin1) ，LI Wen-qian1) ，LI Xiao-gang1，2) 1) Corrosion and Protection Center，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 100083，China 2) Ningbo Institute of Material Technology ＆ Engineering，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Ningbo 315201，China  Corresponding author，E-mail: gaojin@ ustb． edu． cn ABSTＲACT Based on the analysis of aging behavior of ethylene propylene diene rubber ( EPDM) and the mechanism of action of climate on EPDM，the aging data of EPDM exposed for 3 years in 11 typical material weathering test stations and the meteorological data there were studied to find out the relation between atmospheric environment and EPDM aging properties． By using the factor anal￾ysis and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ( TOPSIS) ，the comprehensive values of aging properties were gained． With the grey correlation analysis，sever environmental parameters including irradiance，humidity，temperature were found to be the key climate factors which had a significant relation with the degradation of EPDM． Then a BP artificial neural network that con￾nected the climate factors and EPDM aging properties was built． By inputting the meteorological data of cities，the comprehensive val￾ues of EPDM aging properties where weathering test had not been performed were predicted and a distribution map of these comprehen￾sive values was draw out． The results show that the aging of EPDM in the south of Guangdong Province，Hainan Island，Taiwan Is￾land，Tibet，and south of Xinjiang are the most serious． KEY WOＲDS EPDM; aging; atmospheric environment; correlation; prediction 收稿日期: 2015--12--16 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目( 51133009) ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目( 2014CB643300) ; 国家材料环境腐蚀平台资助 项目( 2005DKA10400)