12 PART 1: RECENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS over the past 12 months. 6(For more discussion of inflation both in the United States and abroad. see the box " Low Inflation in the Advanced Economies. Oil and metals prices increased notably 8. Brent spot and futures prices Headline inflation was a little higher than Weekly Dollars per barrel core inflation last year, which reflected a rise in consumer energy prices. The price of crude Spot price oil rose from $48 per barrel at the end of Jur to a peak of about $70 per barrel early in the year and, even after recent declines, remains futures contracts more than 30 percent above its mid-2017 level -70(figure 8). The upswing in oil prices appears to have been driven primarily by strengthening global demand as well as OPEC's decision to further extend its November 2016 production LLLlll⊥」 cuts through the end of 2018. the higher oil prices fed through to moderate increases in the NoTE: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through cost of gasoline and heating oil February 21, 2018 OURCE: ICE Brent Futures via Bloombe Inflation momentum was also supported by nonfuel import prices, which rose throughout 9. Nonfuel import prices and industrial metals indexes 2017 in part because of dollar depreciation ( figure 9). That development marked a turn from the past several years, during which 120一 nonfuel import prices declined or held flat In addition to the decline in the dollar nonfuel import prices were driven higher by a substantial increase in the price of industrial metals. Despite recent volatility, metals prices 00 remain higher, on net, boosted primarily by Nonfuel import prices improved prospects for global demand and Industrial metals also by government policies that restrained 94 production in China L」 01520162017 In contrast headline inflation has been industrial metals are a monthly average of daily data and extend through held down by consumer food prices, which increased only about 7 percent in 2017 after SOURcE: For nonfuel import pr Labor Stat ndustrial metals, S&P GSCI Indu Metals s having declined in 2016. Food prices have 6. The trimmed mean index excludes whatever prices showed the largest increases or decreases in a given month; for example, the sharp decline in prices fo wireless telephone services in March 2017 was excluded from this index12 Part 1: Recent Economic and Financial Developments over the past 12 months.6 (For more discussion of inflation both in the United States and abroad, see the box “Low Inflation in the Advanced Economies.”) Oil and metals prices increased notably Headline inflation was a little higher than core inflation last year, which reflected a rise in consumer energy prices. The price of crude oil rose from $48 per barrel at the end of June to a peak of about $70 per barrel early in the year and, even after recent declines, remains more than 30 percent above its mid-2017 level (figure 8). The upswing in oil prices appears to have been driven primarily by strengthening global demand as well as OPEC’s decision to further extend its November 2016 production cuts through the end of 2018. The higher oil prices fed through to moderate increases in the cost of gasoline and heating oil. Inflation momentum was also supported by nonfuel import prices, which rose throughout 2017 in part because of dollar depreciation (figure 9). That development marked a turn from the past several years, during which nonfuel import prices declined or held flat. In addition to the decline in the dollar, nonfuel import prices were driven higher by a substantial increase in the price of industrial metals. Despite recent volatility, metals prices remain higher, on net, boosted primarily by improved prospects for global demand and also by government policies that restrained production in China. In contrast, headline inflation has been held down by consumer food prices, which increased only about ½ percent in 2017 after having declined in 2016. Food prices have 6. The trimmed mean index excludes whatever prices showed the largest increases or decreases in a given month; for example, the sharp decline in prices for wireless telephone services in March 2017 was excluded from this index. Spot price 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Dollars per barrel 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8. Brent spot and futures prices Weekly 24-month-ahead futures contracts NOTE: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through February 21, 2018. SOURCE: ICE Brent Futures via Bloomberg. Nonfuel import prices 94 96 98 100 102 104 January 2014 = 100 70 80 90 100 110 120 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9. Nonfuel import prices and industrial metals indexes January 2014 = 100 Industrial metals NOTE: The data for nonfuel import prices are monthly. The data for industrial metals are a monthly average of daily data and extend through February 21, 2018. SOURCE: For nonfuel import prices, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for industrial metals, S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index via Haver Analytics