工程科学学报，第40卷，第4期：397-406,2018年4月 Chinese Journal of Engineering,Vol.40,No.4:397-406,April 2018 DOI:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2018.04.002:http://journals.ustb.edu.cn 三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用 辛 星2》，张帆宇12)区 1)兰州大学西部灾害与环境力学教有部重点实验室，兰州7300002)兰州大学土木工程与力学学院，兰州730000 ☒通信作者，E-mail:Zhangfy@.c.cn 摘要浅层黄土滑坡是黄土高原广泛分布和频繁发生的地质灾害，造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.尽管二维确定性模 型已被广泛用于浅层滑坡稳定性预测，但不能充分考虑岩土性质、地层结构、地下水等条件的三维空间变化，这可能与实际的 斜坡稳定性不相符.因此，利用能考虑复杂斜坡环境的三维确定性模型评价滑坡稳定性，对获取更真实的评价结果以及指导 滑坡防治工作具有重要意义.本文利用Scoops3D三维确定性模型评价了在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的适应性和可靠性. 首先，模型计算参数敏感性的分析发现黏聚力、滑动视倾角和栅格单元重量对安全系数准确度影响较大，并用于指导获取详 细的关键参数.然后，选取不同分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)数据，利用Scoops3D模型对典型黄土沟壑中的浅层黄土滑坡稳 定性进行预测，并通过详细的点状和面状滑坡分布图与预测结果的对比发现，该模型对黄土沟壑区的浅层滑坡稳定性预测准 确度较高，且点状滑坡分布图可能更适合模型适应性的检验.最后，混淆矩阵法和成功率曲线法对不同分辨率数字高程模型 预测结果可靠性的检验显示，该模型能够有效地预测黄土浅层滑坡的稳定性，且在高分辨率数字高程模型数据下可以获得可 靠的预测精度. 关键词浅层黄土滑坡：三维确定性模型：稳定性预测；数字高程模型分辨率；精度检验：Scoops3D 分类号P642.2 Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability XIN Xing),ZHANG Fan-yu) 1)Key Laboratory of Mechanies on Disaster and Environment in Westem China,Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China 2)School of Civil Engineering and Mechanies,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China Corresponding author,E-mail:Zhangfy@lzu.edu.cn ABSTRACT In the loess plateau,shallow loess landslides are especially widespread and frequent geological disasters,causing seri- ous casualties as well as huge property damage.Although two-dimensional deterministic models are widely applied to assess the stability of shallow landslides,they could not sufficiently consider the three-dimensional spatial variation of geotechnical property,layering con- figurations and groundwater.It might not conform with the actual situation of slope stability.Therefore,the three-dimensional determin- istic model with considering complicated slope situation has the great significance to acquire the results that are more accordant with the actual situation.At the same time,it will exercise a profound and far-reaching influence to effectively mitigate landslide disasters.This paper takes the three-dimensional deterministic model Scoops3D to evaluate its adaptation and reliability of predicting shallow loess landslide stability.Firstly,the sensitivity analysis of model calculating parameters indicates that the most influential parameters on ac- curacy of safety factor are cohesive force,sliding direction of visual angle and the weight of grids,so it could guide to acquire the detail key input parameters.Then,the different resolution digital elevation models (DEMs)and geotechnical parameters are selected and used to predict the stability of shallow loess landslides in the typical gully and ridge physiographic region by using the Scoops3D.Com- paring the calculated results with the detail inventory of point landslides and facial shape landslides shows that this model has a high ac- 收稿日期：2017-04-07 基金项目：国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(41402240)：973国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2014CB744701):兰州大学中央高校基本 科研业务费专项资金资助项目(zujbky-2017k19)工程科学学报，第 40 卷，第 4 期: 397--406，2018 年 4 月 Chinese Journal of Engineering，Vol． 40，No． 4: 397--406，April 2018 DOI: 10． 13374 /j． issn2095--9389． 2018． 04． 002; http: / /journals． ustb． edu． cn 三维确定性模型在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的应用 辛 星1，2) ，张帆宇1，2)  1) 兰州大学西部灾害与环境力学教育部重点实验室，兰州 730000 2) 兰州大学土木工程与力学学院，兰州 730000  通信作者，E-mail: Zhangfy@ lzu． edu． cn 摘 要 浅层黄土滑坡是黄土高原广泛分布和频繁发生的地质灾害，造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失． 尽管二维确定性模 型已被广泛用于浅层滑坡稳定性预测，但不能充分考虑岩土性质、地层结构、地下水等条件的三维空间变化，这可能与实际的 斜坡稳定性不相符． 因此，利用能考虑复杂斜坡环境的三维确定性模型评价滑坡稳定性，对获取更真实的评价结果以及指导 滑坡防治工作具有重要意义． 本文利用 Scoops3D 三维确定性模型评价了在浅层黄土滑坡稳定性预测中的适应性和可靠性． 首先，模型计算参数敏感性的分析发现黏聚力、滑动视倾角和栅格单元重量对安全系数准确度影响较大，并用于指导获取详 细的关键参数． 然后，选取不同分辨率的数字高程模型( DEM) 数据，利用 Scoops3D 模型对典型黄土沟壑中的浅层黄土滑坡稳 定性进行预测，并通过详细的点状和面状滑坡分布图与预测结果的对比发现，该模型对黄土沟壑区的浅层滑坡稳定性预测准 确度较高，且点状滑坡分布图可能更适合模型适应性的检验． 最后，混淆矩阵法和成功率曲线法对不同分辨率数字高程模型 预测结果可靠性的检验显示，该模型能够有效地预测黄土浅层滑坡的稳定性，且在高分辨率数字高程模型数据下可以获得可 靠的预测精度． 关键词 浅层黄土滑坡; 三维确定性模型; 稳定性预测; 数字高程模型分辨率; 精度检验; Scoops3D 分类号 P642. 2 收稿日期: 2017--04--07 基金项目: 国家自然科学青年基金资助项目( 41402240) ; 973 国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目( 2014CB744701) ; 兰州大学中央高校基本 科研业务费专项资金资助项目( lzujbky--2017--k19) Application of a 3D deterministic model for predicting shallow loess landslide stability XIN Xing1，2) ，ZHANG Fan-yu1，2)  1) Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China，Ministry of Education，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730000，China 2) School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730000，China  Corresponding author，E-mail: Zhangfy@ lzu． edu． cn ABSTＲACT In the loess plateau，shallow loess landslides are especially widespread and frequent geological disasters，causing seri￾ous casualties as well as huge property damage． Although two-dimensional deterministic models are widely applied to assess the stability of shallow landslides，they could not sufficiently consider the three-dimensional spatial variation of geotechnical property，layering con￾figurations and groundwater． It might not conform with the actual situation of slope stability． Therefore，the three-dimensional determin￾istic model with considering complicated slope situation has the great significance to acquire the results that are more accordant with the actual situation． At the same time，it will exercise a profound and far-reaching influence to effectively mitigate landslide disasters． This paper takes the three-dimensional deterministic model Scoops3D to evaluate its adaptation and reliability of predicting shallow loess landslide stability． Firstly，the sensitivity analysis of model calculating parameters indicates that the most influential parameters on ac￾curacy of safety factor are cohesive force，sliding direction of visual angle and the weight of grids，so it could guide to acquire the detail key input parameters． Then，the different resolution digital elevation models ( DEMs) and geotechnical parameters are selected and used to predict the stability of shallow loess landslides in the typical gully and ridge physiographic region by using the Scoops3D． Com￾paring the calculated results with the detail inventory of point landslides and facial shape landslides shows that this model has a high ac-