98 Theory,Culture Society 'railroad sickness'from the end of the preceding century? And finally,aren't risks a central concern of the engineering and physical sciences?What business has the sociologist here?Isn't that once again typical? The Calculus of Risk:Predictable Security in the Face of an Open Future Human dramas -plagues,famines and natural disasters,the looming power of gods and demons-may or may not quantifiably equal the destructive potential of modern mega-technologies in hazardousness.They differ essentially from 'risks'in my sense since they are not based on decisions,or more specifically,decisions that focus on techno-economic advantages and opportunities and accept hazards as simply the dark side of progress.This is my first point: risks presume industrial,that is,techno-economic decisions and considerations of utility.They differ from 'war damage'by their 'normal birth',or more precisely,their 'peaceful origin'in the cen- tres of rationality and prosperity with the blessings of the guarantors of law and order.They differ from pre-industrial natural disasters by their origin in decision-making,which is of course never con- ducted by individuals but by entire organizations and political groups.! The consequence is fundamental:pre-industrial hazards,no matter how large and devastating,were 'strokes of fate'raining down on mankind from 'outside'and attributable to an 'other'- gods,demons or Nature.Here too there were countless accusations, but they were directed against the gods or God,religiously motiv- ated',to put it simply,and not like industrial risks-politically charged.For with the origin of industrial risks in decision-making the problem of social accountability and responsibility irrevocably arises,even in those areas where the prevailing rules of science and law permit accountability only in exceptional cases.People,firms, state agencies and politicians are responsible for industrial risks.As we sociologists say,the social roots of risks block the 'external- izability'of the problem of accountability.2 Therefore,it is not the number of dead and wounded,but rather a social feature,their industrial self-generation,which makes the hazards of mega-technology a political issue.The question remains however:must one not view and assess the past 200 years as a period of continual growth in calculability and precautions in dealing with industrially produced insecurities and destruction?In fact,a very Downloaded from lcs.sagepub.com at Shanghai Jiaotong University on June 17,2012Downloaded from tcs.sagepub.com at Shanghai Jiaotong University on June 17, 2012