1314 Timothy Hildebrandt forward,she was not deterred.Li's same-sex marriage proposal has become an annual event,a singular effort to bring about legislation that could give gays and lesbians equal rights under a regime that has long-professed its commitment to egalitarianism in theory but often falls short in practice.2 Given growing support for same-sex marriage in other countries,as well as the tenacity of some activists like Li,what is the possibility of China promulgating a policy that would legalise same-sex marriage?What would the state to gain from doing so?And how would such a policy affect gay and lesbian citizens? Although there is no large Lesbian,Gay,Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) movement in China,'a recent case allows us to theorise about what effects might be felt in China if such a progressive policy were implemented.In the often divisive world of Chinese HIV/AIDS organisations,there has been much to fight over- resources and turf-and little to agree on.But in recent years,groups began to find common ground on a few issues.At a gathering in autumn 2007,several organisations began to coordinate efforts to oppose a government ban on HIV-positive individuals travelling into the country.Non-governmental organis- ation (NGO)leaders planned to present their argument at the annual meeting of the Global Fund (an inter-governmental organisation to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria,and tuberculosis),at which high-ranking Chinese government officials were expected to attend.But before they had time to present their case-and commencing an anticipated battle-the government announced,to great fanfare, that it would change the policy.Future meetings to coordinate opposition were cancelled.There was a noticeable bitter-sweet reaction among the activists.?A key interest of the groups was met,but the government's abrupt reversal also created a significant opportunity cost:the chance for social organisations to coalesce was also gone. China has no domestic campaigns to legalise same-sex marriage on the scale of those in the West.The nascent civil society sector representing the LGBT community has been most concerned with stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS;far less time is devoted to same-sex marriage.But despite the lack of a significant indigenous push for such a policy,legalised same-sex marriage is not improbable in China.In this article,I theorise that the impetus for such a policy is likely to come not from the grassroots but rather the political centre.Although this policy 2 In this article I use the term 'Same-sex marriage'rather than 'Same-sex union'simply because LGBT activists in China overwhelmingly use the term 'tongxing hunyin /same-sex marriage /' 3 Although some groups were LGBT in name,few were so in practice.The vast majority of informants for this research were leaders of organisations that represented self-identified gay men or lesbian women.For reasons I explore elsewhere (Forging a Harmonious Middle Path'The Rise of Social Organizations and the Persistance of the Authoritarian State in China,book manuscript,2010). there is limited networking between groups;organisations representing gay men and lesbian women have,in recent years,grown apart.As for bisexuals,one activist noted that the number of bisexual men in China is probably far higher than in the West,due to the frequency of homosexual men who marry straight women to avoid social or family pressure.There are no known groups working exclusively for the interests of transsexual/gendered persons.However,a handful of gay men's groups have reached out to this community,particularly in China's southwestern Yunnan province.With these qualifications in mind,I use LGBT throughout this article as shorthand for the universe of these types of activists,social organisations,and citizens. 4Although the government stated its intentions in 2007,the ban was not officially reversed until April 2010. 5 Participant observation,Kunming.China (11 November 2007).forward, she was not deterred. Li’s same-sex marriage proposal has become an annual event, a singular effort to bring about legislation that could give gays and lesbians equal rights under a regime that has long-professed its commitment to egalitarianism in theory but often falls short in practice.2 Given growing support for same-sex marriage in other countries, as well as the tenacity of some activists like Li, what is the possibility of China promulgating a policy that would legalise same-sex marriage? What would the state to gain from doing so? And how would such a policy affect gay and lesbian citizens? Although there is no large Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) movement in China,3 a recent case allows us to theorise about what effects might be felt in China if such a progressive policy were implemented. In the often divisive world of Chinese HIV/AIDS organisations, there has been much to fight over – resources and turf – and little to agree on. But in recent years, groups began to find common ground on a few issues. At a gathering in autumn 2007, several organisations began to coordinate efforts to oppose a government ban on HIV-positive individuals travelling into the country. Non-governmental organis￾ation (NGO) leaders planned to present their argument at the annual meeting of the Global Fund (an inter-governmental organisation to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis), at which high-ranking Chinese government officials were expected to attend. But before they had time to present their case – and commencing an anticipated battle – the government announced, to great fanfare, that it would change the policy.4 Future meetings to coordinate opposition were cancelled. There was a noticeable bitter-sweet reaction among the activists.5 A key interest of the groups was met, but the government’s abrupt reversal also created a significant opportunity cost: the chance for social organisations to coalesce was also gone. China has no domestic campaigns to legalise same-sex marriage on the scale of those in the West. The nascent civil society sector representing the LGBT community has been most concerned with stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS; far less time is devoted to same-sex marriage. But despite the lack of a significant indigenous push for such a policy, legalised same-sex marriage is not improbable in China. In this article, I theorise that the impetus for such a policy is likely to come not from the grassroots but rather the political centre. Although this policy 2 In this article I use the term ‘Same-sex marriage’ rather than ‘Same-sex union’ simply because LGBT activists in China overwhelmingly use the term ‘tongxing hunyin [same-sex marriage]’. 3 Although some groups were LGBT in name, few were so in practice. The vast majority of informants for this research were leaders of organisations that represented self-identified gay men or lesbian women. For reasons I explore elsewhere (Forging a Harmonious Middle Path: The Rise of Social Organizations and the Persistance of the Authoritarian State in China, book manuscript, 2010), there is limited networking between groups; organisations representing gay men and lesbian women have, in recent years, grown apart. As for bisexuals, one activist noted that the number of bisexual men in China is probably far higher than in the West, due to the frequency of homosexual men who marry straight women to avoid social or family pressure. There are no known groups working exclusively for the interests of transsexual/gendered persons. However, a handful of gay men‘s groups have reached out to this community, particularly in China‘s southwestern Yunnan province. With these qualifications in mind, I use LGBT throughout this article as shorthand for the universe of these types of activists, social organisations, and citizens. 4 Although the government stated its intentions in 2007, the ban was not officially reversed until April 2010. 5 Participant observation, Kunming, China (11 November 2007). 1314 Timothy Hildebrandt