716 Conflict Expectations Sender STATUS QUO ANTE (o,c) Make a Demand Small Large Demand Target Demand Back Down Stand Firm Sender ACQUIESCENCE (D,-D) Back Down Stand Firm STATUS QUO DEADLOCK (0,0) (-c(s,-c(t) FIG.1.The coercion game costs.The only way Sender's threat to coerce can produce concessions is if it genuinely prefers Deadlock to the Status Quo. I now introduce conflict expectations into the model.Sender's and Target's utility functions are a linear,weighted function of absolute and relative preferences.Note that the utility functions incorporating conflict expectations do not require a direct interpersonal comparison of utility,but rather are derived from the observable differences in the various payoffs.8 USENDER=US B(PSENDER)+(1-B)(PSENDER-PTARGET) (1) UTARGET UT B(PTARGET)+(1-B)(PTARGET-PSENDER) (2) s One could argue that assuming both states place an equal value on the demand in question does introduce interpersonal utility comparisons.However,allowing for different valuations of the issue in question does not affect any of the comparative statistics of the model,so the assumption is in the interest of simplicity.Con$ict Expectations Sender -STATUS QUO ANTE (a,a> / Demand Small STATUS QUO DEADLOCK (090) (-c(s), -c(t)) FIG.1. The coercion game costs. The only way Sender's threat to coerce can produce 'concessions is if it genuinely prefers Deadlock to the Status Quo. I now introduce conflict expectations into the model. Sender's and Target's utility functions are a linear, weighted function of absolute and relative preferences. Note that the utility functions incorporating conflict expectations do not require a direct interpersonal comparison of utility, but rather are derived from the observable differences in the various payoffs.8 8 One could argue that assuming both states place an equal value on the demand in question does introduce interpersonal utility comparisons. However, allolving for different valuations of the issue in question does not affect any of the comparative statistics of the model, so the assumption is in the interest of simplicity