肖外径份氨多本是 高级商务英语阅读 The second explanation is that Greenspan believes the US economic recovery is much less robust than the public has been led to believe,and that withdrawing monetary stimulus could bring the house of cards down.This is not a message much heard in the US (where the predominant voice is that of Wall Street economists who have a vested interest is talking up the stock market)but it is true that Greenspan solved the problems caused by the collapse of the bubble in the stock market by creating two new bubbles-in the housing and bond markets Economist Kurt Richebacher puts it this way:"The stock market bubble of the 1920s ended with an unprecedented consumption boom,and just that has been happening again since 1997, and in particular since 2001.Since then,consumer spending has accounted for 92%of GDP growth.Yet,to keep it rising in the face of grossly lacking income growth,the Fed has invented a policy stance that has no precedent in history:boosting home prices with artificially low interest rates in order to provide rapidly growing collateral for consumer borrowing." Richebacher's view is that Greenspan has papered over the "existing maladjustments from the boom through even bigger,new bubbles and macroeconomic maladjustments,heralding much worse to come in the future". What next? The key question is what happens once policymakers try to wean the US off its growth drugs. Unless Bush is prepared to push through new tax cuts-the ultimate dud cheque,given the size of the budget deficit-the boost to consumers from higher take-home pay will fade.Raising interest rates would pull the rug from under the housing market,while if the Fed's negligent approach allows inflation to pick up over the coming months watch out for a crash in the bond market.Even the tiniest threat of higher short-term rates spooked Wall Street last week:it's not hard to imagine what some aggressive tightening would do,particularly if it looked as though the Fed was struggling to catch up. All that said,there is still enough momentum in the US economy to carry it along into next year,by which time the presidential election will be over.This is the third possible explanation for Greenspan's actions;that having been seen as a contributory factor in the downfall of one member of the Bush family,he is making sure he doesn't fluff his lines second time around.If this is the case,it doesn't say much for the independence of the Fed,and it will add to the economic problems of whoever wins in November.It's a good bet that there will be a large dollop of both monetary and fiscal belt-tightening in 2005,and Greenspan might be well advised to bow out gracefully before the brown stuff attaches itself to the fan.As Gordon Brown always says,there are only two types of finance minister:those who fail and those who get out in time.The same applies to central bankers 1.For the best part of 20 years,Alan Greenspan A.has been regarded as a stupid man. B.has been the doyen of central bankers C.has demonstrated his ability in spite of old age. 第7页共9页高级商务英语阅读 The second explanation is that Greenspan believes the US economic recovery is much less robust than the public has been led to believe, and that withdrawing monetary stimulus could bring the house of cards down. This is not a message much heard in the US (where the predominant voice is that of Wall Street economists who have a vested interest is talking up the stock market) but it is true that Greenspan solved the problems caused by the collapse of the bubble in the stock market by creating two new bubbles - in the housing and bond markets. Economist Kurt Richebächer puts it this way: "The stock market bubble of the 1920s ended with an unprecedented consumption boom, and just that has been happening again since 1997, and in particular since 2001. Since then, consumer spending has accounted for 92% of GDP growth. Yet, to keep it rising in the face of grossly lacking income growth, the Fed has invented a policy stance that has no precedent in history: boosting home prices with artificially low interest rates in order to provide rapidly growing collateral for consumer borrowing." Richebächer's view is that Greenspan has papered over the "existing maladjustments from the boom through even bigger, new bubbles and macroeconomic maladjustments, heralding much worse to come in the future". What next? The key question is what happens once policymakers try to wean the US off its growth drugs. Unless Bush is prepared to push through new tax cuts - the ultimate dud cheque, given the size of the budget deficit - the boost to consumers from higher take-home pay will fade. Raising interest rates would pull the rug from under the housing market, while if the Fed's negligent approach allows inflation to pick up over the coming months watch out for a crash in the bond market. Even the tiniest threat of higher short-term rates spooked Wall Street last week: it's not hard to imagine what some aggressive tightening would do, particularly if it looked as though the Fed was struggling to catch up. All that said, there is still enough momentum in the US economy to carry it along into next year, by which time the presidential election will be over. This is the third possible explanation for Greenspan's actions; that having been seen as a contributory factor in the downfall of one member of the Bush family, he is making sure he doesn't fluff his lines second time around. If this is the case, it doesn't say much for the independence of the Fed, and it will add to the economic problems of whoever wins in November. It's a good bet that there will be a large dollop of both monetary and fiscal belt-tightening in 2005, and Greenspan might be well advised to bow out gracefully before the brown stuff attaches itself to the fan. As Gordon Brown always says, there are only two types of finance minister: those who fail and those who get out in time. The same applies to central bankers. 1. For the best part of 20 years, Alan Greenspan ________ A. has been regarded as a stupid man. B. has been the doyen of central bankers. C. has demonstrated his ability in spite of old age. 第 7 页 共 9 页