540 地理学报 58卷 水循环系统抗干扰的一种可恢复能力 一黄河上游河段 的体现。对于变化环境中的河流而v10 言,当系统输入和输出发生变化时,080 黄河下游河段 系统的状态便偏离平衡状态。偏离的 越远,河流系统遭到破坏的可能性就≡ 越大,可恢复能力就越小。如果河流蒙4 系统处于稳定状态,输入和输出平020 衡,河流就不会发生断流,河流水资0 源量可再生性就能得到维持。基于这 种理解,从河流水循环系统的稳定性 和抗干扰能力出发,提出的河流水资图8黄河各河段人类耗冰量70年仁楼153m 源量可再生性指数是一种简便易行的rig8 Scenario evaluation of river water renewability:(c)on the 途径。 assumption that from the 1970s water use in the mainstreams of (3)通过对黄河干流上、中、下 the Yellow River is11.,55and75×1 m/a respectively 游河段不同年代的水资源量可再生能 力的宏观评价结果看,本文提出的河流水资源量可再生性指数,能够客观地反映和揭示 黄河断流的实际情况。从黄河干流水资源量的调控分析,20世纪9年代严重的黄河断流 问题主要受人为因素的影响,可以通过人类活动耗水量的调节加以控制。而这些模拟分 析结果,都能通过河流水资源量可再生性指数的变化,十分直观的表现出来 (4)水资源量可再生性的研究工作,刚刚起步。本文仅针对河流水循环系统,提出河 流水资源量可再生性的量化和评价指数。关于河流水质可再生性的问题,还有大量研究 工作需要开展。 参考文献( References) [1] Zuo Qiting, Wang Zhonggen. Modern Hydrology. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Water Conservancy Press, 2002. 100-130. [左其亭,王中根著.现代水文学.郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002.100-130.] [2 Wood E F Global scale hydrology. Reviews of Geophysics, 1991, ( Supplement): 193-201 3 Newson M D. Land, Water, and Development. London: Routledge, 1992. [4 Biswas A K et al. Water for Sustainable Development in the 21st Century. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993 5 Wigmosat M S, L W Vail, D P Lettenmaier. A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain. Water Resources Research, 1994, 30(6): 1665-1679 [6 American Geophysical Union, U S. National Report to IUGG, 1991-1994, Contributions in Hydrology, Boulder [xIa Jun, Tan Ge. Hydrological science towards global change: progress and challenge. Resources Science, 2002, 24(3) -7.[夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战.资源科学,2002,243):1-7 [8 Xia Jun, Zhu Yizhong. The meas nt of water resources security: Journal of Natural Resources, 2002. 17 (3) 62-269.[夏军,朱一中水资源安全度量.自然资源学报,2002,17(3):262-269] [9] Yellow River Dry-up and Basin Sustainable Development. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 1997. [inJHT 流与流域可持续发展.北京:中国环境科学出版社,1997 [10] Meng Qingmei. Soil and Water Conservation of Loess Plateau. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Water Conservancy Press, 1997.[孟庆枚.黄土高原水土保持.黄河水利科技丛书.郑州:黄河水利出版社,1997] [11 Comprehensive Science Investigation of Loess Plateau of CAS. Water Resources Problems and Its Countermeasures Loess plateau. Beijing: China Scientific and Technological Press1996.[中科院黄土高原综合科学考察队.黄土高原 地区水资源问题及其对策.北京:中国科技出版社,1996.] [2] Liu Changming. Research on Water Problems in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press.1996.[刘昌明.中国水 问题研究.北京:气象出版社,1996] ssessment on Yellow River dry-up. Water Conservancy Economy, 19924549谬黄河断流的环境经济评估浅杯利经济19(1 45$49.All rights!"#$%&’()*+,-./0 )123 4567#89):;< => ?$%@AB@CDE67F> $%)GHIJKLMGHN JK) OP> :;$%QRST),/UV OW> ,-./0VOXN YZ:; $%[5\]GH> @AB@CL M> :;V^_DE‘;a :;!b cd,eEUV/fRghN i5j +kl> m:;!"#$%)\]U B&’(/0CD> nC):;!b cd,eEUopq*+rIst) uvN !"# wx4y:’;z{ 9{ | }:~^€)!bcd,eE/ 0)‚ƒ„…†Z‡ˆ ‰ŠnC):;!bcd,eEUop> /‹ŒƒŽB‘ y:‘;)’•N my:’;!bcd)™ˆ %& š› ’& €œ)y:‘; žŸ ¡¢£¤¥¦)§¨ˆ ,©wx£ª«¬­!d)®¯©°3 <j±²³ ™†Z´ µ/wx:;!bcd,eEUop)¶7´ ·¸ƒ)¹2Cº3 ()# !bcd,eEU)»¼½¾´ ¿¿ÀÁ ÊÄÅ4:;!"#$%´ nC: ;!bcd,eEU)d7B„…op3 Æ5:;!Ç,eEU)žŸ´ ÈÉWd»¼ ½¾Ê¡ËÌ3 !"#$ !"#$#%#&’#() *+, ./0 1232456 7845 .90455:4; <0=:>4 ?@=>0A05@; .9:45B90/C D:AA0E F2G:> 783:> H04I:>G84J@ K>:II6 %&&%; +&&L+"&; *ÍÎÏ6 Ð9Ñ Ò; 2!ŠÓ; ÔÕC y:!ÖC×Ø6 %&&%; +&&L+"&;, *%, 700= M N; OA0P8A IJ8A: 9@=>0A05@; F:G2:EI 0Q O:0R9@I2JI6 +’’+6 ST/RRA:U:43VC +’"L%&+; *", W:EI04 < X; Y84=6 783:>6 84= X:G:A0RU:43; Y04=04C F0/3A:=5:6 +’’%; *), Z2IE8I [ \ :3 8A; 783:> Q0> T/I38248PA: X:G:A0RU:43 24 39: %+I3 H:43/>@; ]^Q0>=C ]^Q0>= _42G:>I23@ K>:II6 +’’"; *‘, 725U0I83 < T6 Y 7 a82A6 X K Y:33:4U82:>; [ =2I3>2P/3:= 9@=>0A05@LG:5:383204 U0=:A Q0> J0URA:^ 3:>>824; 783:> F:I0/>J:I F:I:8>J96 +’’)6 "&SbVC +bb‘L+bc’; *b, [U:>2J84 O:0R9@I2J8A _42046 _ T; W832048A F:R0>3 30 d_OO6 +’’+L+’’)6 H043>2P/3204I 24 ?@=>0A05@6 Z0/A=:>6 H0A0>8=06 e/A@6 +’’‘; *c, f28 e/46 g84 O:; ?@=>0A052J8A IJ2:4J: 30E8>=I 5A0P8A J9845:C R>05>:II 84= J98AA:45:; F:I0/>J:I TJ2:4J:6 %&&%6 %)S"VC +Lc; *ÙÚ6 ÛÜ; ÝÞ¶7ß!ŠàÓá)âÌßãä; bcàÓ6 %&&%6 %)S"VC +Lc;, *h, f28 e/46 .9/ D2B9045; g9: U:8I/>:U:43 0Q E83:> >:I0/>J:I I:J/>23@C e0/>48A 0Q W83/>8A F:I0/>J:I6 %&&%6 +c S"VC %b%L%b’; *ÙÚ6 å*9; !bcæÝçd; èébcÓê6 %&&%6 +cS"VC %b%L%b’;, *’, D:AA0E F2G:> X>@L/R 84= Z8I24 T/I38248PA: X:G:A0RU:43; Z:2i245C H9248 M4G2>04U:438A TJ2:4J: K>:II6 +’’c; *y:‘ ;ß;ë,hìDÌ; íîC 9ï#8àÓC×Ø6 +’’c;, *+&, <:45 1245U:2; T02A 84= 783:> H04I:>G83204 0Q Y0:II KA83:8/; .9:45B90/C D:AA0E F2G:> 783:> H04I:>G84J@ K>:II6 +’’c; *ðñò; yóôõ!óöh; y:!Öà÷øù; ÔÕC y:!ÖC×Ø6 +’’c;, *++, H0UR>:9:4I2G: TJ2:4J: d4G:I32583204 0Q Y0:II KA83:8/ 0Q H[T; 783:> F:I0/>J:I K>0PA:UI 84= d3I H0/43:>U:8I/>:I 24 Y0:II KA83:8/; Z:2i245C H9248 TJ2:432Q2J 84= g:J940A052J8A K>:II6 +’’b; *9àúyóôõûüàÓýþÿ; yóôõ !!bcžŸ"Î4#; íîC 9ïà÷C$Ø6 +’’b;, *+%, Y2/ H9845U245; F:I:8>J9 04 783:> K>0PA:UI 24 H9248; Z:2i245C H9248 <:3:0>0A052J8A K>:II; +’’b; *%&’; 9ï! žŸ»¼; íîC ()C$Ø6 +’’b;, *+", T92 .9:4; M4G2>04U:438A :J040U@ 848A@I2I 84= 8II:IIU:43 04 D:AA0E F2G:> =>@L/R; 783:> H04I:>G84J@ MJ040U@6 +’’’6 S+VC )‘L)’; **+; y:‘;)#8,-„./™; !Ö,-6 +’’’6 S+VC )‘L)’;, ‘)&  k Ó ê ‘h 0