上海文通大学 SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Supply Chain Management 2013 80 70 60 50 Manufacturer Produce -Trader Order 40 -Wholesaler Order 30 米米 Retailer Order 量-Customer 20 10 腾 1357911131517192123252729 Figure 1 Demand in the supply chain From Figure 1,we can see that orders of retailer,wholesale and trader,as well as manufacturer'production,are in high variability,while the demand of customer doesn't change a lot.This phenomenon is also called bullwhip effect. From the data of my team,it indicates that the variability is a bit higher than normal.Associated with the process we played the game,the main reason maybe existed in the wholesaler and the distributor(trader in the chart).As the demand of the customer went up,distributor and wholesaler didn't place enough orders to the upper one in the supply chain causing that they didn't have enough goods to meet the orders as time went on. Answer the Questions 1.Conducting the Beer Game by Software has the advantage of various modes,please list the factors that can affect the volatility of the supply chain data(bullwhip effect). The main factors contributing to the Bullwhip Effect are:Batching ordering,Price fluctuation,Inflated orders,Demand forecasting and Long lead times. 2.Compare the changes of the bullwhip effect under different modes. Comparing the three different conditions,we can get the conclusion that: 1.The decreasing in lead time will decrease the bullwhip effect. 2.Centralized demand information can significantly reduce the bullwhip effect, but will not eliminate it. Page 2 Total 2Supply Chain Management 2013 Page 2 Total 2 Figure 1 Demand in the supply chain From Figure 1, we can see that orders of retailer, wholesale and trader, as well as manufacturer’ production, are in high variability, while the demand of customer doesn’t change a lot. This phenomenon is also called bullwhip effect. From the data of my team, it indicates that the variability is a bit higher than normal. Associated with the process we played the game, the main reason maybe existed in the wholesaler and the distributor (trader in the chart). As the demand of the customer went up, distributor and wholesaler didn’t place enough orders to the upper one in the supply chain causing that they didn’t have enough goods to meet the orders as time went on. Answer the Questions 1. Conducting the Beer Game by Software has the advantage of various modes, please list the factors that can affect the volatility of the supply chain data (bullwhip effect). The main factors contributing to the Bullwhip Effect are: Batching ordering, Price fluctuation, Inflated orders, Demand forecasting and Long lead times. 2. Compare the changes of the bullwhip effect under different modes. Comparing the three different conditions, we can get the conclusion that: 1. The decreasing in lead time will decrease the bullwhip effect. 2. Centralized demand information can significantly reduce the bullwhip effect, but will not eliminate it