Predictions for Scientific Computing Fifty Years From Now Lloyd N.Trefethen Oxford University Computing Laboratory LNT@comlab.ox.ac.uk This essay is adapted from a talk given June 17,1998 at the conference "Numerical Analysis and Computers-50 Years of Progress"held at the University of Manchester in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Mark 1 computer. Fifty years is a long,long time in any technological field.In our own field of scientific computing or numerical analysis,think back to 1950.Around the world,numerical problems in 1950 were solved with slide rules andon paper,or with mechanical calculators that had little in common with today's computers.Some of the algorithms we use today were in existence then,but on the whole,the last fifty years have changed numerical computing beyond recognition.The next fifty will do it again. My remarks consist of twelve predictions.I did not aim for these to orbit around a unifying theme,but that is nevertheless what happened 1.We may not be here. In the 20th century,everything tecnological seems to be changing exponentially. This raises a problem.Exponentials do not go on for ever;something happens to them. Now in my opinion,many of the exponentials we are sitting on have not yet started to level off.Here at the beginning of the third millennium,biology is just beginning its great explosion,and although electronics got a head start of a few decades,it is hardly slowing down yet. The presence of exponentials all around us overshadows any attempt to predict the future.I feel I must dwell for a moment on one of the shadows,one that has nothing specifically to do with computing.In my opinion,our position on an exponential trajectory is evidence that technological civilisations do not last very long.I do not claim that our civilisation must end within fifty years,or five hundred,but I do believe there is reason to doubt it can survive for,say,ten thousand years. My reasoning has nothing to do with any particular catadlysm that may befall us, such as environmental catastrophe or exhaustion of resources or asteroid impact or bio- logical or nuclear war.The argument is more abstract,and it goes like this.The indus trial explosion on earth began just two or three hundred years ago.Now if technological civilisations can last tens of thousands of years,how do you explain the extr aordinary coincidence that you were born in the first few generationsof this one?-in the very first century of radio,television,light bulbs,telephones,phonogr aphs,lasers,refriger ators, 1Predictions for Scientic Computing Fifty Years From Now Lloyd N Trefethen Oxford University Computing Laboratory LNTcomlaboxacuk This essay is adapted from a talk given June   at the conference Numerical Analysis and Computers Years of Progress held at the University of Manchester in commemoration of the th anniversary of the Mark computer Fifty years is a long long time in any technological eld In our own eld of scientic computing or numerical analysis think back to  Around the world numerical problems in  were solved with slide rules and on paper or with mechanical calculators that had little in common with today s computers Some of the algorithms we use today were in existence then but on the whole the last fty years have changed numerical computing beyond recognition The next fty will do it again My remarks consist of twelve predictions I did not aim for these to orbit around a unifying theme but that is nevertheless what happened  We may not be here In the th century everything technological seems to be changing exponentially This raises a problem Exponentials do not go on for ever something happens to them Now in my opinion many of the exponentials we are sitting on have not yet started to level o Here at the beginning of the third millennium biology is just beginning its great explosion and although electronics got a head start of a few decades it is hardly slowing down yet The presence of exponentials all around us overshadows any attempt to predict the future I feel I must dwell for a moment on one of the shadows one that has nothing specically to do with computing In my opinion our position on an exponential tra jectory is evidence that technological civilisations do not last very long I do not claim that our civilisation must end within fty years or ve hundred but I do believe there is reason to doubt it can survive for say ten thousand years My reasoning has nothing to do with any particular cataclysm that may befall us such as environmental catastrophe or exhaustion of resources or asteroid impact or bio logical or nuclear war The argument is more abstract and it goes like this The indus trial explosion on earth began just two or three hundred years ago Now if technological civilisations can last tens of thousands of years how do you explain the extraordinary coincidence that you were born in the rst few generations of this one  in the very rst century of radio television light bulbs telephones phonographs lasers refrigerators