A Simple Concurrent State Model a device is described by a set of components communicating through shared variables A component has a set of modes and state variables Modes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive All components include the unknown mode A mode has a vv=open→> v= stuck open→> probability Outflow= M,(inflow); Outflow =M,(inflow); Open state constraint open Stuck Closed closed lv= closed→> vlv= stuck closed→> Outflow =0: Outflow= 0 Unknown Simple Mode Estimation Find most likely modes consistent with observations Goal: Left engine on Observe no thrust 自点 Enumerate by decreasing prior probability Update by Bayes rule19 Closed Open Stuck open Stuck closed Cost 5 Prob .9 A Simple Concurrent State Model ƒ A device is described by a set of components communicating through shared variables. ƒ A component has a set of modes and state variables. ƒ Modes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive ƒ All components include the unknown mode. ƒ A mode has a: ƒ probability ƒ cost ƒ state constraint Vlv = closed => Outflow = 0; vlv=open => Outflow = Mz + (inflow); vlv=stuck open => Outflow = Mz + (inflow); vlv=stuck closed=> Outflow = 0; Unknown 20 Simple Mode Estimation Goal: Left engine on Observe “no thrust” Enumerate by decreasing prior probability. Update by Bayes rule. Find most likely modes consistent with observations