Herding: What happens 口 What happens? a is person: guess the color drawn a 2nd person: guess the color drawn person: If the two before made different guesses then go with his own color Else: just go with their guess(regardless of the color you see o Can be modeled Bayesian rule( the first two guesses may bias the prior) a P(RIrrb)=P(rrb R)P(R)/P(rrb)=2/3 口 Non-optimal outcome: a With prob 1/3x1 3=1 /9, the first two would see the wrong color from then on the whole population would guess wrongHerding: What happens?  What happens?  1 st person: guess the color drawn  2 nd person: guess the color drawn  3 rd person: ◼ If the two before made different guesses, then go with his own color ◼ Else: just go with their guess (regardless of the color you see)  Can be modeled Bayesian rule(the first two guesses may bias the prior)  P(R|rrb)=P(rrb|R)P(R)/P(rrb)=2/3  Non-optimal outcome:  With prob 1/3×1/3=1/9, the first two would see the wrong color, from then on the whole population would guess wrong 4