Expected Time Time of individual phase Expected Time Rate of Complete Success at the Beginning of that Phase Time for Likelihood of Expected Phase Success in Phase Time Phase 5 50% 39 Months months Phase 6 23 2 Phase 12 70 26 Phase4 65 4 Total 27 13 9410-17 Expected Time Expected Time = Time of individual phase Rate of Complete Success at the Beginning of that Phase Total 27 13 94 Phase 4 65 6 4 Phase 12 70 26 3 Phase 6 57 23 2 5 50% 39 Months 39 Months months Phase 1 Expected Expected Time Likelihood of Likelihood of Success in Phase Success in Phase Time for Time for Phase