I. Risks for local government financing platforms are controllable but banks non-performing loan ratios on e rise Local governments raise financing through a variety (PBOC)released a report which found that since 20 of approaches including platforms, and have achieved government financing platforms throughout China, in positive results in promoting economic and social regard to the specific investigations made into the loans, development from these financial platforms, particularly state-owned commercial banks and policy-orient in public infrastructure construction. An estimated banks are the major suppliers for this type of specialized 80 percent of the debt held by local government lending. The loans issued for local government financing investment and financing platforms in China was platforms are primarily mortgages and pledges originally obtained as bank credit. Despite management and other risks, much can be done to control loan risks Among these loans, more than fifty percent are invested of local government platforms in China, including highways and municipal infrastructure promoting the reformation of the national and local debt management system; clarifying financial allocations On June 27, 2011, the National Audit Office of among various levels of government; improving the local China released a comprehensive audit report on local finance and taxation system; and actively expanding government debts, which further clarified the scale and financing channels. classification of such debts. The Audit Office reported local government debt of Renminbi(RMB)10.7 he volume of loans on local government financing trillion Of that amount, RMB 8.5 trillion yuan latforms is massive, and the peak period for maturity 79 percent-consisted of bank loans. Based on the falls between 2011 and 2013. Local investment and average platform repayment period of 2 to 5 years, the financing platforms may expand financing channels peak period for debt repayment of financing platforms that support funds for central rill fall between 2011 and bout 5.6 trillion projects by issuing corporate bonds or medium-term close to 53 percent of local debt, will mature within notes On June 1, 2011, the peoples Bank of China his three-year period (see Figure 1) Figure 1. Annual Distribution of debts due by local governements as of the end of 2010 3.5Unit: Trillion Yuan 3.2 a Debts payable by local governments Debts guaranteed by local overnments 1.8 a Other relevant local 1.0 0.8 2016 and later Data Source nal Audit office Announcement No 35. June 27. 201 Although risk surrounding local government financing In recent years, nationwide fiscal revenue has also platform loans is controllable, non-performing loan ratios grown at a high rate. Nationwide, fiscal revenue in 2010 at banks are expected to rise in 2012; non-performing increased by 21.3 percent compared to the same period loans are not, however, expected to develop into large the previous year. At the same time, among the large balances of bad debts. The smooth, stable and rapic volumes of ownership rights formed by expenditures of development of Chinas economy remains unchanged, local governments in China, many belong to effective and local fiscal revenue is stable on the whole, which assets and are cashable to a certain degree. Collectively, both provide support for loan repayment. The ability of these factors reflect improvements in conditions for debt various levels of government in China to meet mid-to repayment. According to the CBrC, the non-performing nnouncement No 35 of loan ratio of commercial banks has risen somewhat At 2011,June27.2011 long-term debt repayment will continue to improve hrough their onomic development efforts and year-end 2011, the balance of non-performing loans at Wind Information commercial banks was 427.90 billion yuan, and was up2 2 一、地方政府融资平台风险可控， 但银行的不良贷款率将温和上升 1 2 国家审计署，2011年第35 号公告，2011年6月27日 国家统计局，Wind资讯 地方政府通过平台等多种方式融资，在推动经 济与社会发展特别是公共基础建设方面取得了 积极成果。据测算，在我国地方政府投融资平 台的负债中，80% 都是通过银行信贷获得资 金。由于地方政府融资平台存在管理不规范不 审慎、监督机制缺失等问题，也埋下了一些风 险隐患。但整体来说，我国地方政府平台贷款 风险基本可控；可是要真正化解地方政府性债 务风险，还得深入推进国家和地方债务管理体 制改革，进一步理顺各级政府间的财政分配关 系，健全地方财税体系，并积极拓宽融资渠道。 地方政府融资平台贷款规模巨大，2011 至 2013 年迎来到期高峰期。地方投融资平台可 以通过发行企业债券、中期票据等方式，拓宽 中央政府投资项目的配套资金融资渠道。中国 人民银行在 2011 年 6 月 1 日发布的报告中对 2008 年以来全国各地区政府融资平台贷款情 况的专项调查显示，国有商业银行和政策性银 行是贷款的供给主力。当前对地方政府融资平 台发放的贷款以抵、质押方式为主，约五成以 上地方政府融资平台贷款投向公路与市政基础 设施。2011 年 6 月 27 日，中国国家审计署发 布了对地方政府债务的全面审计报告，进一步 明晰了此类负债的规模和分类。审计署将地方 政府债务总额评估为人民币 10.7 万亿元，其 中人民币 8.5 万亿元为银行贷款。由于地方政 府建设性债务暴涨出现在2008年下半年之后， 因此，以 2 到 5 年的平台平均还款期计算， 融资平台真正的还债高峰将出现在 2011 年至 2013 年。根据国家审计署报告的披露，约 5.6 万亿，近 53% 的地方债务将在这段时期到期 1 （见图 1）。 资料来源：国家审计署，2011年第35号公告，2011年6月27日 预计 2012 年，地方政府融资平台贷款风险基 本可控，但银行的不良贷款率将有所上升。地 方政府融资平台贷款虽然存在着潜在风险，但 并不会演化成大规模的坏账。从偿债条件看， 我国经济平稳较快发展的总体趋势未变，地 方财政收入总体稳定。从中长期来看，我国各 级政府通过自身的经济发展和财力增长，偿债 图1 2010年底全国地方政府性债务偿债年度分布 能力不断提高。近年来，全国财政收入继续保 持高速增长，2010 年全国财政收入同比增长 21.3%2 。同时，我国地方政府支出所形成的大 量权属中，有许多属于有效资产，具有一定的 变现能力。这些都有利于改善偿债条件。根据 银监会数据显示，商业银行的不良贷款率有所 上升。2011 年末，商业银行不良贷款率余额 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年及以后 单位：万亿元 3.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 政府负有偿还责任的债务 政府负有担保责任的债务 其他相关债务 I. Risks for local government financing platforms are controllable but banks’ non-performing loan ratios on the rise Local governments raise financing through a variety of approaches including platforms, and have achieved positive results in promoting economic and social development from these financial platforms, particularly in public infrastructure construction. An estimated 80 percent of the debt held by local government investment and financing platforms in China was originally obtained as bank credit. Despite management and other risks, much can be done to control loan risks of local government platforms in China, including: promoting the reformation of the national and local debt management system; clarifying financial allocations among various levels of government; improving the local finance and taxation system; and actively expanding financing channels. The volume of loans on local government financing platforms is massive, and the peak period for maturity falls between 2011 and 2013. Local investment and financing platforms may expand financing channels that support funds for central government investment projects by issuing corporate bonds or medium-term notes. On June 1, 2011, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) released a report which found that since 2008 government financing platforms throughout China,in regard to the specific investigations made into the loans, state-owned commercial banks and policy-oriented banks are the major suppliers for this type of specialized lending. The loans issued for local government financing platforms are primarily mortgages and pledges. Among these loans, more than fifty percent are invested in highways and municipal infrastructure. On June 27, 2011, the National Audit Office of China released a comprehensive audit report on local government debts, which further clarified the scale and classification of such debts. The Audit Office reported total local government debt of Renminbi (RMB) 10.7 trillion yuan. Of that amount, RMB 8.5 trillion yuan – or 79 percent – consisted of bank loans. Based on the average platform repayment period of 2 to 5 years, the peak period for debt repayment of financing platforms will fall between 2011 and 2013. About 5.6 trillion yuan, or close to 53 percent of local debt, will mature within this three-year period (see Figure 1).1 1 National Audit Office, Announcement No. 35 of 2011, June 27, 2011 2 National Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information Figure 1. Annual Distribution of debts due by local governements as of the end of 2010 Data Source: National Audit Office, Announcement No. 35, June 27, 2011 n Debts payable by local governments n Debts guaranteed by local governments n Other relevant local government debts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 and later Although risk surrounding local government financing platform loans is controllable, non-performing loan ratios at banks are expected to rise in 2012; non-performing loans are not, however, expected to develop into large balances of bad debts. The smooth, stable and rapid development of China’s economy remains unchanged, and local fiscal revenue is stable on the whole, which both provide support for loan repayment. The ability of various levels of government in China to meet mid- to long-term debt repayment will continue to improve through their own economic development efforts and financial growth. In recent years, nationwide fiscal revenue has also grown at a high rate. Nationwide, fiscal revenue in 2010 increased by 21.3 percent compared to the same period the previous year.2 At the same time, among the large volumes of ownership rights formed by expenditures of local governments in China, many belong to effective assets and are cashable to a certain degree. Collectively, these factors reflect improvements in conditions for debt repayment. According to the CBRC, the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks has risen somewhat. At year-end 2011, the balance of non-performing loans at commercial banks was 427.90 billion yuan, and was up Unit: Trillion Yuan