78 C.Z.Guilmoto (hereafter SRB)has increased above the standard range of 104-106 male births per 100 female births,reaching values above 110 or even 120.This process of demographic masculinization stems mostly from the increasing frequency of sex- selective abortions across Asia,from the Caucasus to South and East Asia.While discrimination against unborn girls today is a dismal reflection of the status of women,sex imbalances may also lead tomorrow to the potential disruption of marriage systems set off by the unavoidable shortage in prospective brides. In this article,I aim to evaluate the potential severity of the marriage crisis and to explore the potential responses of nuptiality systems to future changes in China and India.I selected these two countries because of their demographic weight in the world and their early rise in SRB over the last two decades.For this article, compared with previous studies,demographic parameters have been updated and the study period extended from the conventional year 2050 to 2100 in view of the especially long-term impact of SRB imbalances on marriage patterns.But the most important difference from previous research is the use of a longitudinal simulation procedure to simulate future male and female marriages rather than relying on cross- sectional indicators of sex ratio imbalances. The article starts with a presentation of the data and models used to simulate future marriage patterns.Taking 2005 as baseline year,my simulations rely on various population projections based on three scenarios of change in SRB over the coming decades.I also describe the different marriage models used in the simulations.Next,I present results from the simulations,starting with new estimates of the extent of the marriage squeeze and the analysis of the respective contribution to it of changes in age structures and in birth masculinity.Two additional simulations illustrate the extent to which mere changes in marriage timing could reduce the intensity of the marriage squeeze.The article concludes with a synthesis of the results and a review of some of the implications of my findings. Data and Models for Marriage Simulations The simulation of marriage pattems in China and India requires first a set of population projections based on different SRB scenarios for the future.Since other long-term trends in age structures may also affect the marriage-sex ratio,I also develop a set of projections without rise in SRB levels.I examine two dimensions of population change in the first sections and describe the parameters used in the population projections.I then discuss the limitations of the cross-sectional sex ratio indicators of marriage squeeze and present a more realistic indicator of marriage squeeze based on longitudinal marriage simulations.These simulations are based on specific parameters for projecting female marriage patterns in the future.At the end of this section,I also explore what other responses of male nuptiality to the increasing marriage squeeze conditions could be by presenting two alternative marriage functions. Impact of Population Structures on Sex Imbalances Since men usually marry younger women,the birth cohorts of future husbands tend to be older (Esteve and Cabre 2005;McDonald 1995).But the size of these birth ②Springer(hereafter SRB) has increased above the standard range of 104–106 male births per 100 female births, reaching values above 110 or even 120. This process of demographic masculinization stems mostly from the increasing frequency of sex￾selective abortions across Asia, from the Caucasus to South and East Asia. While discrimination against unborn girls today is a dismal reflection of the status of women, sex imbalances may also lead tomorrow to the potential disruption of marriage systems set off by the unavoidable shortage in prospective brides. In this article, I aim to evaluate the potential severity of the marriage crisis and to explore the potential responses of nuptiality systems to future changes in China and India. I selected these two countries because of their demographic weight in the world and their early rise in SRB over the last two decades. For this article, compared with previous studies, demographic parameters have been updated and the study period extended from the conventional year 2050 to 2100 in view of the especially long-term impact of SRB imbalances on marriage patterns. But the most important difference from previous research is the use of a longitudinal simulation procedure to simulate future male and female marriages rather than relying on cross￾sectional indicators of sex ratio imbalances. The article starts with a presentation of the data and models used to simulate future marriage patterns. Taking 2005 as baseline year, my simulations rely on various population projections based on three scenarios of change in SRB over the coming decades. I also describe the different marriage models used in the simulations. Next, I present results from the simulations, starting with new estimates of the extent of the marriage squeeze and the analysis of the respective contribution to it of changes in age structures and in birth masculinity. Two additional simulations illustrate the extent to which mere changes in marriage timing could reduce the intensity of the marriage squeeze. The article concludes with a synthesis of the results and a review of some of the implications of my findings. Data and Models for Marriage Simulations The simulation of marriage patterns in China and India requires first a set of population projections based on different SRB scenarios for the future. Since other long-term trends in age structures may also affect the marriage-sex ratio, I also develop a set of projections without rise in SRB levels. I examine two dimensions of population change in the first sections and describe the parameters used in the population projections. I then discuss the limitations of the cross-sectional sex ratio indicators of marriage squeeze and present a more realistic indicator of marriage squeeze based on longitudinal marriage simulations. These simulations are based on specific parameters for projecting female marriage patterns in the future. At the end of this section, I also explore what other responses of male nuptiality to the increasing marriage squeeze conditions could be by presenting two alternative marriage functions. Impact of Population Structures on Sex Imbalances Since men usually marry younger women, the birth cohorts of future husbands tend to be older (Esteve and Cabré 2005; McDonald 1995). But the size of these birth 78 C.Z. Guilmoto