22 上海交通大学学报（哲学社会科学版） 第19卷 难突破40%的大关。不过，从长期的观点看 提名征召名单[EB/0L].(2011-07-19)[2011-07 来，鉴于国民党和民进党各有源于不同阶层、 -25 http://www.kmt.org.tw/he.aspx?id 不同地域的基本支持者，我们还是有理由预 30&aid=6209.欧崇敬，让选民知道ECFA是赚钱 的政策[EB/(OL].(2011-10-02)[2011-10-18]. 料，均衡两党体系和政党轮替，将成为岛内的 http://www.chinareviewnews.com/crn webapp/ 政治常态。 doe/docDetailCNML.jsp?docid=101853904. [7]陈明成.国民党下届“立委”选举提名，高雄选区共有 12人领表争取提名[EB/OL].(2011一03-13)[2011 参考文献： -03-30].http:/gb.nownews.com:6060/2011/03/ [1门吴重礼，“立法委员”选举制度改革的省思[C/黄 13/11478-2696240.htm#ixzz1Lm8o39ro. 纪，游清鑫，如何评估选制变迁：方法论的探讨·台 [8]林浊水.民进党“立委”过半：谨慎乐观[EB/OL]. 北：五南图书出版公司，2008：251-278. (2011-06-18)[2008-07-12].http:// [2]Arend Lijphart.Electoral Systems and Party Sys- www.taiwansig.tw/index2.php?option =com_ tems M].New York:Oxford University content&task=view&.id=3463&pop. Press,1994. [9]王业立，比较选举制度[M],台北：五南图书出版 [3]严安林，2008年台湾“总统”选举与海峡两岸关系走 股份有限司，2008. 向[J].上海台湾研究，2008：179-187. [10]杨泽军，桑德平，“五都”选举后岛内政局走向探析 [4]林冈.台湾政党体系的发展趋势[J门.江苏行政学 [EB/OL].[2011-10-18].http://www.cqvip.com/ 院学报，2011(5)：84一91. Main/Detail.aspx?id=36741155. [5]周丽华，陈凌雄，选举压力下的国民党改革[C]// [11]蓝绿“五都”决战影响地方执政版图可能变化表 周志怀，两岸关系：共同利益与和谐发展，北京：九 [N.自由时报，2010-03-02(A3). 州出版社，2010：140-151. [12]肖杨，台湾五市选举结果及其影响分析[J门.上海 [6]中国国民党第8届“立法委员”（区域暨原住民）选举 台湾研究，2010：182-187. Inpact of 2012 Taiwanese Elections on the Island's Party System LIN Gang (School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200030,China) Abstract:Taiwan's legislators'elections with parallel plurality-propotioanl representation ballots and various executive head elections with plurality formula tend to enhance its current two-party system,moving it to the direction of inter-party symmetric checks and balances.Given the advantage the Nationalist Party enjoys in the seats of Taiwan's legislative organ and the majority votes it has gained during the country magistrator and city mayor elections in the past,it can safely be predicted that the Democratic Progressive Party may not win the Junuary 2012 elections for Taiwan's supreme leader and legislative organization.However,it is also safe to expect that the gap in ballots between the two parties will be further narrowed down in the forthcoming "two-in-one"elections on the island. Key words:electoral system;party system;the Nationalist Party;the Democratic Progressive Party;the Blue;the Green 1994-2012 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House.All rights reserved.http://www.cnki.net