X.Liang et aL Journal of Cleaner Production 137 (2016)1300-1312 1301 require retrofitting 15%of the total number of the existing buildings a potential and ongoing green retrofit project (Gucyeter and to improve energy efficiency by 2015 compared with the 2003 Gunaydin,2012).The main stakeholders identified by the litera- baseline (EPA,2005).Approximately 30 billion US dollars are ear- ture include the client/owner,occupier/tenant,facilities manager, marked to conduct green retrofit projects for the existing buildings consultant/designer,contractor,subcontractor,supplier,govern- and facilities.In 2010,the UK government launched the Carbon ment,financial institutions,energy service companies,environ- Reduction Commitment(CRC)Energy Efficiency Scheme to save 1.2 mental organization,professional association,media,public,labor million tons of CO,emissions annually by 2020.This scheme mo- union,and researcher/educator (Gultekin et al.,2013:Juan et al. tivates the consumers to consider energy efficiency options and to 2009:Kaklauskas et al.,2004.2008:Miller and Buys,2008;Yang invest in building retrofit projects.Similarly,the Chinese govern- and Zou,2014).which are shown in Fig.1.Previous studies asser- ment has introduced various policies.Chinese 12th Five-Year Plan ted that the process of green retrofit projects can normally be stipulated that 400 million m2 residential buildings and 60 million divided into five phases,namely.the 1)initial intention or setup,2) m public buildings are planned to be retrofitted as pilot projects pre-retrofit survey and energy performance assessment,3)design between 2011 and 2015 to improve building energy efficiency. 4)site implementation,and 5)validation and verification(Lapinski By contrast,green retrofit projects remain inadequately pursued et al.,2006;Ma et al.,2012).Various stakeholders are involved in in the industries.After the 2008 global economic recession,this green retrofit projects in the different phase (see Fig.1).For situation was further exacerbated by the challenge of ensuring the example,the energy consultants are normally involved in the pre- financial support for retrofit activities (Menassa,2011).Some pilot retrofit survey and energy performance assessment phase,whereas studies have revealed that the industries are unenthusiastic about the designers and contractors participate in the project at the green retrofit primarily because of the following aspects:the highly design and implementation phases. complex design analysis and solution (Davies and Osmani,2011: The owners and occupiers play important roles in making green Kasivisvanathan et al.,2012:Lapinski et al.,2006).intense inter- retrofit decisions,particularly at the very early stage,namely,initial disciplinary collaboration (Korkmaz et al.,2010:Lapinski et al. intention or setup phase (Liang et al..2015).In this phase,normally 2006),long payback periods (Kasivisvanathan et al.,2012: only the owners and occupiers are involved,who propose pre- Menassa,2011).financial problem (e.g.,limited access to capital, liminary retrofit plans and exchange opinions regarding retrofit. high cost,etc.)(Davies and Osmani,2011:Kasivisvanathan et al.. These stakeholders can decide whether to launch a retrofit project 2012:Xu et al,2011),lack of retrofit experience (Ali et al,2008: and to continue to the next steps of energy audit,design,and Kasivisvanathan et al.,2012:Korkmaz et al.,2010),and lack of implementation.The important role of owners in green retrofit can understanding of the available retrofit technologies (Davies and be naturally and easily understood,whereas the role of the occu- Osmani,2011:Miller and Buys,2008).Most of these research piers is often underestimated (Karvonen,2013).Juan et al.(2009) findings were obtained by analyzing the problem from technical, indicated that the influence of the occupiers makes the retrofit economic,and environmental perspectives.Only a few studies have more difficult and risky than new buildings because cooperation explored the behaviors of the main stakeholders,who may directly and participation of occupiers are required in an existing building decide whether a building retrofit can be implemented.In practice, retrofit (Miller and Buys,2008).In new buildings,the clients,who the owners and occupiers are the critical direct stakeholders in will become the building owners after construction,can decide by green retrofit at the initial intention phase.However,these in- themselves,whereas in retrofit,the owners have to consider oc- dividuals may have varying and conflicting opinions on whether a cupiers because of their lease contracts.The satisfaction of the building should be retrofitted and when and how the retrofit will occupiers can directly influence the occupancy rate,rent,and be implemented.Few studies,if not none,have investigated the owner reputation in the future.In addition to economic influence. decision behaviors of the occupiers and owners under different the actions of the occupiers are identified as major determinants of interaction relationships.Therefore,the logic for reluctance to energy consumption(Azar and Menassa,2012.2014).The occupiers conduct green retrofit activities in the industry remains unknown. can affect the energy consumption difference by up to 100% This study aims to reveal the underlying logic of the industry's through different behaviors,such as ventilation habits,indoor reluctance to conduct green retrofit by analyzing the behaviors of temperature setting behavior,and after-hour lighting use (Urge- owners and occupiers at the initial phase.This study differs from Vorsatz et al.,2009).Consequently.the occupiers are another the previous ones because instead of identifying the willingness of essential stakeholders in green retrofit projects.Numerous owners the stakeholders or the retrofit-related problems through a survey. and occupiers intend to carry out green retrofit,but,most of them it explores the behaviors of the direct decision makers under the are interrupted at the beginning because a consensus cannot be current market constraints through a game analysis.Modeling the reached.Ma et al.(2012)presented that the phase of deciding retrofit decision behaviors of the stakeholders under different whether to retrofit buildings,which is before the design phase,is scenarios with game theory can be an efficient means to properly the key phase of a sustainable building retrofit.Thus,answering the identify the underlying logic.The rest of the paper is organized into question of whether or not to retrofit a building by analyzing the eight sections.Section 2 critically reviews the literature on stake- interrelations between the owners and occupiers at the first phase holders in green retrofit and the relevant motivations and barriers. is fundamental. Section 3 describes the research methodology.Sections 4,5.and 6 The conventional studies related to the stakeholder analysis in introduce the specific game analysis in the different scenarios of green retrofit mainly focused on the owners and designers involved occupancy types.Section 7 comprehensively discusses the analytic in the energy assessment and design phase (Ali et al.,2008:Stiess results.Section 8 concludes the study and presents recommenda- and Dunkelberg.2013).However,a few recent studies have tions for future research examined the occupiers of existing buildings and their relationship with owners.Stephan and Menassa(2013)proposed an agent- 2.Literature review based model to analyze the social network interactions among the stakeholders(i.e.,owner,occupier,architect,and contractor)of 2.1.Critical stakeholders in green retrofit commercial buildings.In their subsequent study.Stephan and Menassa (2014)emphasized that the network structure and the The stakeholders in green retrofit are the people who,directly or confidence level of the stakeholders could significantly influence indirectly,have vested interests in a building and in the outcome of their own alignment toward a unified retrofit objective.This agent-require retrofitting 15% of the total number of the existing buildings to improve energy efficiency by 2015 compared with the 2003 baseline (EPA, 2005). Approximately 30 billion US dollars are ear￾marked to conduct green retrofit projects for the existing buildings and facilities. In 2010, the UK government launched the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) Energy Efficiency Scheme to save 1.2 million tons of CO2 emissions annually by 2020. This scheme mo￾tivates the consumers to consider energy efficiency options and to invest in building retrofit projects. Similarly, the Chinese govern￾ment has introduced various policies. Chinese 12th Five-Year Plan stipulated that 400 million m2 residential buildings and 60 million m2 public buildings are planned to be retrofitted as pilot projects between 2011 and 2015 to improve building energy efficiency. By contrast, green retrofit projects remain inadequately pursued in the industries. After the 2008 global economic recession, this situation was further exacerbated by the challenge of ensuring the financial support for retrofit activities (Menassa, 2011). Some pilot studies have revealed that the industries are unenthusiastic about green retrofit primarily because of the following aspects: the highly complex design analysis and solution (Davies and Osmani, 2011; Kasivisvanathan et al., 2012; Lapinski et al., 2006), intense inter￾disciplinary collaboration (Korkmaz et al., 2010; Lapinski et al., 2006), long payback periods (Kasivisvanathan et al., 2012; Menassa, 2011), financial problem (e.g., limited access to capital, high cost, etc.) (Davies and Osmani, 2011; Kasivisvanathan et al., 2012; Xu et al., 2011), lack of retrofit experience (Ali et al., 2008; Kasivisvanathan et al., 2012; Korkmaz et al., 2010), and lack of understanding of the available retrofit technologies (Davies and Osmani, 2011; Miller and Buys, 2008). Most of these research findings were obtained by analyzing the problem from technical, economic, and environmental perspectives. Only a few studies have explored the behaviors of the main stakeholders, who may directly decide whether a building retrofit can be implemented. In practice, the owners and occupiers are the critical direct stakeholders in green retrofit at the initial intention phase. However, these in￾dividuals may have varying and conflicting opinions on whether a building should be retrofitted and when and how the retrofit will be implemented. Few studies, if not none, have investigated the decision behaviors of the occupiers and owners under different interaction relationships. Therefore, the logic for reluctance to conduct green retrofit activities in the industry remains unknown. This study aims to reveal the underlying logic of the industry's reluctance to conduct green retrofit by analyzing the behaviors of owners and occupiers at the initial phase. This study differs from the previous ones because instead of identifying the willingness of the stakeholders or the retrofit-related problems through a survey, it explores the behaviors of the direct decision makers under the current market constraints through a game analysis. Modeling the retrofit decision behaviors of the stakeholders under different scenarios with game theory can be an efficient means to properly identify the underlying logic. The rest of the paper is organized into eight sections. Section 2 critically reviews the literature on stake￾holders in green retrofit and the relevant motivations and barriers. Section 3 describes the research methodology. Sections 4, 5, and 6 introduce the specific game analysis in the different scenarios of occupancy types. Section 7 comprehensively discusses the analytic results. Section 8 concludes the study and presents recommenda￾tions for future research. 2. Literature review 2.1. Critical stakeholders in green retrofit The stakeholders in green retrofit are the people who, directly or indirectly, have vested interests in a building and in the outcome of a potential and ongoing green retrofit project (Gucyeter and Gunaydin, 2012). The main stakeholders identified by the litera￾ture include the client/owner, occupier/tenant, facilities manager, consultant/designer, contractor, subcontractor, supplier, govern￾ment, financial institutions, energy service companies, environ￾mental organization, professional association, media, public, labor union, and researcher/educator (Gultekin et al., 2013; Juan et al., 2009; Kaklauskas et al., 2004, 2008; Miller and Buys, 2008; Yang and Zou, 2014), which are shown in Fig. 1. Previous studies asser￾ted that the process of green retrofit projects can normally be divided into five phases, namely, the 1) initial intention or setup, 2) pre-retrofit survey and energy performance assessment, 3) design, 4) site implementation, and 5) validation and verification (Lapinski et al., 2006; Ma et al., 2012). Various stakeholders are involved in green retrofit projects in the different phase (see Fig. 1). For example, the energy consultants are normally involved in the pre￾retrofit survey and energy performance assessment phase, whereas the designers and contractors participate in the project at the design and implementation phases. The owners and occupiers play important roles in making green retrofit decisions, particularly at the very early stage, namely, initial intention or setup phase (Liang et al., 2015). In this phase, normally only the owners and occupiers are involved, who propose pre￾liminary retrofit plans and exchange opinions regarding retrofit. These stakeholders can decide whether to launch a retrofit project and to continue to the next steps of energy audit, design, and implementation. The important role of owners in green retrofit can be naturally and easily understood, whereas the role of the occu￾piers is often underestimated (Karvonen, 2013). Juan et al. (2009) indicated that the influence of the occupiers makes the retrofit more difficult and risky than new buildings because cooperation and participation of occupiers are required in an existing building retrofit (Miller and Buys, 2008). In new buildings, the clients, who will become the building owners after construction, can decide by themselves, whereas in retrofit, the owners have to consider oc￾cupiers because of their lease contracts. The satisfaction of the occupiers can directly influence the occupancy rate, rent, and owner reputation in the future. In addition to economic influence, the actions of the occupiers are identified as major determinants of energy consumption (Azar and Menassa, 2012, 2014). The occupiers can affect the energy consumption difference by up to 100% through different behaviors, such as ventilation habits, indoor temperature setting behavior, and after-hour lighting use (Ürge￾Vorsatz et al., 2009). Consequently, the occupiers are another essential stakeholders in green retrofit projects. Numerous owners and occupiers intend to carry out green retrofit, but, most of them are interrupted at the beginning because a consensus cannot be reached. Ma et al. (2012) presented that the phase of deciding whether to retrofit buildings, which is before the design phase, is the key phase of a sustainable building retrofit. Thus, answering the question of whether or not to retrofit a building by analyzing the interrelations between the owners and occupiers at the first phase is fundamental. The conventional studies related to the stakeholder analysis in green retrofit mainly focused on the owners and designers involved in the energy assessment and design phase (Ali et al., 2008; Stiess and Dunkelberg, 2013). However, a few recent studies have examined the occupiers of existing buildings and their relationship with owners. Stephan and Menassa (2013) proposed an agent￾based model to analyze the social network interactions among the stakeholders (i.e., owner, occupier, architect, and contractor) of commercial buildings. In their subsequent study, Stephan and Menassa (2014) emphasized that the network structure and the confidence level of the stakeholders could significantly influence their own alignment toward a unified retrofit objective. This agent￾X. Liang et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 137 (2016) 1300e1312 1301