American Political Science Review Vol.105,No.1 impact on jobs.In the model,such a national time location that produces a specific product for a specific trend is captured in the constant term a in Equation company.Applications made to the TAA division are (1)];however,one cannot distinguish the specific na- then reviewed by investigative teams at the DOL and, tionwide effect of trade openness from other national if found to have merit,are granted a TAA certification trends that shifted the electorate's preferences.Given that provides the workers with eligibility to a range that the nationwide impact of trade-related job losses of benefits.16 If the petition is certified,then the cer- on support for the incumbent is probably not positive, tification covers all workers in the group regardless this analysis most likely provides a conservative esti- of whether their names appeared as claimants on the mate of the electoral effect of these job losses on the petition. nationwide vote TAA petitions include information about the name Third and finally,the analysis should not be seen as of the employer,the estimated number of affected estimating the fotal impact of trade openness on voting workers,the application and determination date,and It could be,for example,that a county that experienced the address of the workplace.17 In total,the dataset many trade-related job losses gained other jobs from I use for the 8-year period between 1996 and 2004 trade-related investments,perhaps leading to a net gain includes 22,287 applications representing 2,110,310 of jobs.Moreover,trade openness has an impact on the employees.18 Table 1 provides the key summary overall state of the economy (e.g.,by spurring growth), statistics19 which in turn also affects voters'preferences.The find- As noted,the key dependent variable of interest in ings of this analysis should therefore be interpreted as the analysis is the relative change in Bush's vote share capturing the electoral impact of one aspect of trade, between the 2000 and 2004 elections.I therefore cal- albeit a politically salient one,namely,the loss of local culate all trade-related job dislocations that occurred in the 4 years between the two elections based on the determination dates provided by the TAA.Within this DATA AND MEASUREMENT period,I classify the applications along two dimensions. The first dimension distinguishes between applications The analysis covers all 3.111 U.S.counties on which that the DOL certified for TAA benefits and those complete voting data are available.The counties of that were denied.The second dimension is the cause Alaska are excluded because its electoral wards do not that brought about the job dislocation:(1)offshoring match the county boundaries.The voting data comes of production,(2)import competition,and(3)indirect from the Congressional Quarterly's Voting and Elec- foreign competition.20 I then calculate the percentage tions Collection.Data on trade-related job losses are based on applications submitted to the TAA program in the DOL.Because the measure of trade-related job 6 These benefits include a"trade readjustment allowance"for up to losses is central to all subsequent analyses,this section 52 weeks after workers'unemployment compensation benefits are describes the TAA data in some detail. exhausted (provided during the period in which a worker is partic- ipating in an approved full-time training program).a 2-year"wage insurance"that covers 50%of the difference between workers'old Trade Adjustment and Assistance Data and new salaries,support for the costs associated with retraining for another job or career,and tax credits for health care costs covering The TAA program was established as part of the Trade up to 65%of the workers'monthly health insurance premium.The exact benefits have changed somewhat over the years. Expansion Act in 1962,with the objective of providing Approximately 15%of the applications in the DOL's archive had reemployment services and benefits to workers whose incomplete address information that did not provide ZIP code data. employment was hurt by America's trading relations. For these slightly more than 3,000 cases,I used the companies'Web By providing legislatures with a means to compensate sites and the U.S.Post Office Web site to locate the addresses and match the exact ZIP codes of the affected businesses.The informa- constituents hurt by the signing of new free trade agree- tion was then manually recorded. ments,the TAA was seen as a useful political tool for 18 The TAA division reports a slightly different set of figures.The fig- helping pass legislation geared toward trade liberaliza- ures reported here are obtained after aggregating data from the dif- tion.To be eligible for TAA benefits.a worker mus ferent TAA programs,eliminating duplicate entries and terminated receive certification by the DOL confirming that cer- applications,as well as applications that had missing data or that took tain requirements are met:(1)the worker's employer place in the same calendar year but occurred after the election date Note that the figure treats TAA applications made by different divi- produces an article;and(2)the workers applying have sions of the same "mother company"as separate petitions.See the been totally or partially laid off as a result of(a)import online Appendix at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/psr2011003 competition that led to decline in sales or production for a more detailed discussion of consolidating the TAA petitions (b)a shift in production to another country with which into the final dataset. the United States has a trade agreement,or (c)due to 19 Following the signing of NAFTA in December 1993,the DOL established an additional program(NAFTA-TAA)that operated in loss of business as an upstream supplier or downstream parallel to the general TAA program in order to deal specifically producer for another company that is TAA certified.15 with job dislocations caused by NAFTA.With the passing of the Each application,which requires at least three pe- 2002 Trade Act,the two programs were consolidated and continued titioners,refers to a group of workers at a specific to operate under the banner of the TAA program.The data used in the analysis include all applications made to the TAA and the NAFTA-TAA programs during the period 1996-2004. 15 As part of the "Recovery Act."these eligibility criteria were 20 The third category includes the job dislocations resulting from a loss of business of an upstream supplier or a downstream producer slightly altered in May 2009. for a TAA-certified company. 171American Political Science Review Vol. 105, No. 1 impact on jobs. In the model, such a national time trend is captured in the constant term [α in Equation (1)]; however, one cannot distinguish the specific na￾tionwide effect of trade openness from other national trends that shifted the electorate’s preferences. Given that the nationwide impact of trade-related job losses on support for the incumbent is probably not positive, this analysis most likely provides a conservative esti￾mate of the electoral effect of these job losses on the nationwide vote. Third and finally, the analysis should not be seen as estimating the total impact of trade openness on voting. It could be, for example, that a county that experienced many trade-related job losses gained other jobs from trade-related investments, perhaps leading to a net gain of jobs. Moreover, trade openness has an impact on the overall state of the economy (e.g., by spurring growth), which in turn also affects voters’ preferences. The find￾ings of this analysis should therefore be interpreted as capturing the electoral impact of one aspect of trade, albeit a politically salient one, namely, the loss of local jobs. DATA AND MEASUREMENT The analysis covers all 3,111 U.S. counties on which complete voting data are available. The counties of Alaska are excluded because its electoral wards do not match the county boundaries. The voting data comes from the Congressional Quarterly’s Voting and Elec￾tions Collection. Data on trade-related job losses are based on applications submitted to the TAA program in the DOL. Because the measure of trade-related job losses is central to all subsequent analyses, this section describes the TAA data in some detail. Trade Adjustment and Assistance Data The TAA program was established as part of the Trade Expansion Act in 1962, with the objective of providing reemployment services and benefits to workers whose employment was hurt by America’s trading relations. By providing legislatures with a means to compensate constituents hurt by the signing of new free trade agree￾ments, the TAA was seen as a useful political tool for helping pass legislation geared toward trade liberaliza￾tion. To be eligible for TAA benefits, a worker must receive certification by the DOL confirming that cer￾tain requirements are met: (1) the worker’s employer produces an article; and (2) the workers applying have been totally or partially laid off as a result of (a) import competition that led to decline in sales or production, (b) a shift in production to another country with which the United States has a trade agreement, or (c) due to loss of business as an upstream supplier or downstream producer for another company that is TAA certified.15 Each application, which requires at least three pe￾titioners, refers to a group of workers at a specific 15 As part of the “Recovery Act,” these eligibility criteria were slightly altered in May 2009. location that produces a specific product for a specific company. Applications made to the TAA division are then reviewed by investigative teams at the DOL and, if found to have merit, are granted a TAA certification that provides the workers with eligibility to a range of benefits.16 If the petition is certified, then the cer￾tification covers all workers in the group regardless of whether their names appeared as claimants on the petition. TAA petitions include information about the name of the employer, the estimated number of affected workers, the application and determination date, and the address of the workplace.17 In total, the dataset I use for the 8-year period between 1996 and 2004 includes 22,287 applications representing 2,110,310 employees.18 Table 1 provides the key summary statistics.19 As noted, the key dependent variable of interest in the analysis is the relative change in Bush’s vote share between the 2000 and 2004 elections. I therefore cal￾culate all trade-related job dislocations that occurred in the 4 years between the two elections based on the determination dates provided by the TAA. Within this period, I classify the applications along two dimensions. The first dimension distinguishes between applications that the DOL certified for TAA benefits and those that were denied. The second dimension is the cause that brought about the job dislocation: (1) offshoring of production, (2) import competition, and (3) indirect foreign competition.20 I then calculate the percentage 16 These benefits include a “trade readjustment allowance” for up to 52 weeks after workers’ unemployment compensation benefits are exhausted (provided during the period in which a worker is partic￾ipating in an approved full-time training program), a 2-year “wage insurance” that covers 50% of the difference between workers’ old and new salaries, support for the costs associated with retraining for another job or career, and tax credits for health care costs covering up to 65% of the workers’ monthly health insurance premium.The exact benefits have changed somewhat over the years. 17 Approximately 15% of the applications in the DOL’s archive had incomplete address information that did not provide ZIP code data. For these slightly more than 3,000 cases, I used the companies’ Web sites and the U.S. Post Office Web site to locate the addresses and match the exact ZIP codes of the affected businesses. The informa￾tion was then manually recorded. 18 The TAA division reports a slightly different set of figures. The fig￾ures reported here are obtained after aggregating data from the dif￾ferent TAA programs, eliminating duplicate entries and terminated applications, as well as applications that had missing data or that took place in the same calendar year but occurred after the election date. Note that the figure treats TAA applications made by different divi￾sions of the same “mother company” as separate petitions. See the online Appendix at http://www.journals.cambridge.org/psr2011003 for a more detailed discussion of consolidating the TAA petitions into the final dataset. 19 Following the signing of NAFTA in December 1993, the DOL established an additional program (NAFTA-TAA) that operated in parallel to the general TAA program in order to deal specifically with job dislocations caused by NAFTA. With the passing of the 2002 Trade Act, the two programs were consolidated and continued to operate under the banner of the TAA program. The data used in the analysis include all applications made to the TAA and the NAFTA-TAA programs during the period 1996–2004. 20 The third category includes the job dislocations resulting from a loss of business of an upstream supplier or a downstream producer for a TAA-certified company. 171