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5.Real consumption growth is very smooth.The annualized standard deviation of the growth rate of seasonally adjusted real consumption of nondurables and services is 1.1%in the US data. 6.Real dividend growth is extremely volatile at short horizons because dividend data are not adjusted to remove seasonality in dividend payments.The annualized quarterly standard deviation of real dividend growth is 28.3%in the US data.At longer horizons, however,the volatility of dividend growth is intermediate between the volatility of stock returns and the volatility of consumption growth.At an annual frequency,for example, the volatility of real dividend growth is only 6%in the US data. 7.Quarterly real consumption growth and real dividend growth have a very weak corre- lation of 0.05 in the US data,but the correlation increases at lower frequencies to 0.25 at a 4-year horizon. 8.Real consumption growth and real stock returns have a quarterly correlation of 0.23 in the US data.The correlation increases to 0.34 at a 1-year horizon,and declines at longer horizons. 9.Quarterly real dividend growth and real stock returns have a very weak correlation of 0.03 in the US data,but the correlation increases dramatically at lower frequencies to reach 0.47 at a 4-year horizon. 10.Real US consumption growth is not well forecast by its own history or by the stock market.The first-order autocorrelation of the quarterly growth rate of real nondurables and services consumption is a modest 0.2,and the log price-dividend ratio forecasts less than 4%of the variation of real consumption growth at horizons of 1 to 4 years. 11.Real US dividend growth has some short-run forecastability arising from the seasonality of dividend payments.But it is not well forecast by the stock market.The log price- dividend ratio forecasts no more than 8%of the variation of real dividend growth at horizons of 1 to 4 years. 28 0 % % , 5 !" 9 0 % ' , $ % 465 !" ; % # # % ( % ; $ # ' # % 95 !" 3 < % % ( ) 8 !" # $ 8 2) 4 0 % ( $ 6 !" 62 ) # % 1 < % ( ( 6 !" # $ 23 2) 0 !" % ( ( ) $ % # % ) 25 % 2 0 !" % ) % = ( ( % ) 45 % 2