Increasing Returns,Path Dependence,and the Study of Politics June 2000 obtain fairly good information on the wages and work- expectations.The need to employ mental maps induces ing conditions on offer from different firms.Consum- increasing returns.This is true both at the individual ers,too,are reasonably adept at navigating most level and at the group level,as "communities of aspects of the economic world.Links between choices discourse"often come to share and reproduce a similar and outcomes are generally clear:Take a new job and ideology (Wuthnow 1989).15 your income rises;buy a car and your savings account This recent work converges with the long-standing balance shrinks.The quality of goods is usually evident views of those who study political culture as well as the in relatively short order,and repeated purchases allow recent contributions of cognitive science.16 Once estab- consumers to sample alternatives. lished,basic outlooks on politics,ranging from ideolo- Of course,one can add many complications to this gies to understandings of particular aspects of govern- simple picture of the economic realm.The market is ments or orientations toward political groups or often highly complex and confusing.Yet,the clarifying parties,are generally tenacious.They are path depen- role of prices,the prevalence of repeated interactions, dent.17 the absence of a need to coordinate many of one's There are,then,compelling reasons to believe that economic decisions with those of other actors.and the political life will often be marked by dynamics of presence of relatively short causal chains between choices and results greatly facilitate the efforts of increasing returns.Tendencies toward positive feed- back characterize four processes central to political economic actors to correct mistakes over time. environments:collective action,institutional develop- Politics is a far,far murkier environment (Moe 1990: ment,the exercise of authority,and social interpreta- North 1990b).It lacks anything like the measuring rod tion.In each case,there are reasons to anticipate that of price.Political actors pursue a range of goals. Furthermore,it is often very hard to observe or mea- steps in a particular direction can trigger a self-rein- sure important aspects of political performance.And, forcing dynamic.This conclusion should be underlined. if we believe that a system is not performing well,it is By itself,it suggests why increasing returns is a critical still more difficult to determine which elements in these concept for those who seek to understand the sources highly complex systems are responsible and what ad- of political stability and change.A recognition that justments would lead to better results.The reliance on self-reinforcing processes are significant is shaking up elaborate procedures to handle collective choice situ- economics,and political scientists have at least as great ations in politics is inescapable,but it undermines a need to consider their implications. transparency,that is,it greatly increases transaction There is also reason to believe that these effects in costs (Cornes and Sandler 1996;Mueller 1989).The politics are often particularly intense.In the remainder complexity of the goals of politics as well as the loose of this section I consider why it is frequently more and diffuse links between actions and outcomes render difficult to reverse course in politics than it would be in politics inherently ambiguous economics.Economists argue that the market provides Even if mistakes or failures in politics are apparent, two powerful mechanisms for exiting problematic improvement through trial-and-error processes is far paths:competition and learning.Competitive pressures from automatic.Many participants in politics(voters, in a market society mean that new organizations with members of interest groups)engage in activities only more efficient structures will develop and eventually sporadically.Their tools of action are often crude,such replace suboptimal organizations (Alchian 1950). as the blunt instrument of the vote,and their actions Learning processes within firms also can lead to cor- have consequences only when aggregated.There may rection.According to Williamson (1993,116-7),one be long lags and complex causal chains connecting can rely on these political actions to political outcomes.The result is that mistaken understandings often do not get cor- rected. is Wuthnow's (1989)subtle analysis of the comparative development The point is not that learning never occurs in of ideologies,with its emphasis on relatively brief periods of histor- politics.Rather,learning is very difficult and cannot be ical openness followed by processes that select and then institution- alize a particular track of ideological development,is broadly con- assumed to occur.Instead,understandings of the po- sistent with the framework suggested here. litical world should themselves be seen as susceptible Consider the statement by Mannheim (1952,298)in his famous to path dependence.Drawing on work in both cogni- essay on generations:"It is of considerable importance for the tive psychology and organizational theory,researchers formation of consciousness which experiences happen to make those all-important 'first impressions.'...Early impressions tend to coa- argue that actors who operate in a social context of lesce into a natural view of the world." high complexity and opacity are heavily biased in the 17 Indeed,as marketers know well,path dependent cognitive effects way they filter information into existing"mental maps' are evident even in the less ambiguous world of consumption.This is (Arthur 1994;Denzau and North 1994).Confirming why advertisers covet the attention of youngsters,who have yet to make definitive (and resilient)choices.A telling recent example is information tends to be incorporated,and disconfirm- the marketing effort of the National Football League,which is ing information is filtered out.Social interpretations of alarmed by indications that youngsters are increasingly drawn to complex environments like politics are subject to pos- basketball and soccer.A former MTV executive now working on itive feedback.The development of basic social under- special events speaks the language of increasing returns:"It's all standings involves high start-up costs and learning about getting a football...into a kid's hands as soon as you can.Six years old,if possible.You want to get a football in their hands before effects;they are frequently shared with other social someone puts a baskethall in their hands,or a hockey stick or a tennis actors in ways that create network effects and adaptive racquet or a golf club"(Seabrook 1997,47). 260