Introduction Introduction 13 Other nations in Asia,and/or throughout the world for that matter,have Later Bush administration officials became extremely distraught with not shown much respect for Taiwan's democratization,regardless of how President Chen for provoking China and possibly precipitating a crisis in the impressive it had been.Japan and the nations of Westem Europe are cer Taiwan Strait at a time America was fighting terrorism and was preoccupied tainly not committed to help Taiwan because it is democratic.The United with wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.U.S.displeasure with Chen evolved into Nations had never demonstrated any intent to protect Taiwan's democracy anger prompting the United States to issue ster warnings to President Chen. notwithstanding the fact self-determination is one of its founding principles. Secretary of State Colin Powell even declared at one point,apparently to In fact,it essentially denies Taiwan has sovereignty.Thus whether Taiwan is send a message,that Taiwan does not possess sovereignty.The State De- democratic or not has little if anything to do with its sovereignty at least as partment came to regard Chen's Taiwan as a loose cannon and conveyed this perceived by people or governments outside of Taiwan.85 view to other agencies of the U.S.government,including the military and Only members of the DPP,and more particularly Chen supporters,es- the intelligence community.President Bush even used harsh language to pouse this position to any meaningful degree.The KMT takes the view that describe President Chen.4 President Ma is dealing with China to improve cross-strait relations in order China,of course,reviled Chen for his calls for independence and for ig- to prevent a war,which imperiled Taiwan during the Chen era,and that it is noring agreements that created a"working relationship"-meaning,in par- pursuing policies that will obviate Taiwan's economic or any other kind of ticular,the99Consensus"reached with China before his presidency. isolation.According to KMT spokespersons,these policies will preserve Chinese leaders frequently assailed Chen and his administration with hostile Taiwan's sovereign status.President Ma has consistently said he has no in- words,which the U.S.State Department duly noted and often repeated. tention of negotiating away Taiwan's sovereignty any many scholars support However,there is another possibility in terms of what Chinese leaders him noting that the world's recent historical trend is toward separation,not thought of Chen Shui-bian:They liked him.Why?Because he did severe union.87 damage to Taiwan's economy and thus made Taiwan more dependent upon But are these arguments really germane?Looking realistically at the China economically.Many Chinese leaders at the time perceived that the question of Taiwan's sovereignty,the unvarnished truth is that it singularly way to deal with Taiwan was through economic incentives,and disincen- depends on the United States.If the U.S.were to decide that Taiwan was not tives if necessary,not war or threats of war.Second,President Chen advo- worth defending or that doing so constitutes too big a risk in terms of U.S.- cated the furtherance of Taiwan's democracy.But his governance was cha- China relations,Taiwan would have little recourse but surrender and be in- otic,which caused fewer and fewer in Asia as well as China to think of Tai- corporated by China forthwith.Most experts calculate that that Taiwan can wan as a democratic model.Thus there was shrinkage in the number of sup- defend itself for only a matter of hours or a few days due to China's prepon- porters in China of political modernization Taiwan-style.Finally,as just derance of military might.Few in Taiwan do not realize this,though many noted Chen literally wrecked relations with the United States.Since,as do not want to think about it since it means that Taiwan does not,and cannot, stated,America holds the key to Taiwan's future,notably whether it remains control its own destiny.But this is the truth.90 Furthermore,it is quite clear to most in Taiwan that when he was presi- sovereign or ot,China won a big advantage In any case,after Chen Shui-bian left the presidency,U.S.officials dent Chen Shui-bian seriously soured relations with the United States, breathed a big sigh of relief.National security experts downgraded the thereby weakening Washington's desire and probably its will to support and Taiwan Strait from the number one flashpoint in the world.U.S.-Taiwan protect Taiwan.This decreased the odds of Taiwan remaining sovereign. relations improved markedly. In other words,Taiwan's"democratic hope"(the expectation other countries However,there is doubt about whether this policy shift will be sustained would support it because it was a democracy)for maintaining its sovereignty and Washington will resume its strong commitment to take military action to waned because of President Chen's strained relations with the United States. protect Taiwan if needed,and,therefore,to ensure its sovereignty.There are Early on the main issues were the Chen administration undermining the ca- good reasons to think the Obama administration is less likely to guarantee pabilities of Taiwan's military and intelligence agencies.(Chen and his advi- Taiwan's security.During the campaign,candidate Obama did not address sors perceived that both were staffed and led to a large extent by Mainland the issue (in contrast to Senator John McCain who pledged the use of U.S Chinese that were supporters of the KMT and thus their enemies and pro- support toTaiwan)Candidate Obama rather advocated the restrained and ceeded to purge them).The result was that the U.S.saw the Chen admini- less frequent use of U.S.military power and less aggressive U.S.policies stration as playing the"race card"for its own political benefit while abdicat- throughout the world.This was not unnoticed in Taiwan.He indicated ing its responsibilities as a trustworthy U.S.ally.2