D0L:10.13374f.issn1001-053x.2011.11.007 第33卷第11期 北京科技大学学报 Vol.33 No.11 2011年11月 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Nov.2011 基于岩体加卸载响应原理的强矿震危险性预测 李 铁1,2)回 孙学会》 吕毓国) 盛继权梅亭亭2) 1)金属矿山高效开采与安全教有部重点实验室，北京1000832)北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院，北京100083 3)抚顺矿业集团有限责任公司，抚顺1130084)抚顺矿业集团有限责任公司老虎台矿，抚顺113003 ☑通信作者，E-mail:fslitie@yahoo.com.cm 摘要以抚顺老虎台矿田为工程背景，采用加卸载响应比理论，开展强矿震预测技术应用研究.研究表明：0≤M1≤0.5矿 震在各开采深度作为加卸载响应震级的预测效能均较好，对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度为0.72：M≥1.4矿震作为加卸 载响应震级，具有深度尺度效应，响应震级与开采深度成正比，一般小于预测震级0.5~1.0，对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信 度0.60：0.6≤M<1.4矿震作为加卸载响应震级的随机性较大，分析是两种不同机制矿旷震混合的结果，不适宜作为加卸载响 应震级；开采深度越大，地应力环境强度越高，预测敏感性和效果越好.在阜新煤田和门头沟矿田进行普适性检验，预测信度 分别为0.8和0.73.试验结果表明，加卸载响应比理论和方法预测强矿震具有较好的效能和应用前景 关键词深部开采：矿震：震级：预测 分类号TD324:P315.02 Predicting the risk of strong mining-induced seismicity based on the rock load/unload response theory LI Tie),SUN Xue-hui,LU Yu-guo,SHENG Ji-quan,MEI Ting-ting) 1)Key Laboratory of High-Efficiency Mining and Safety of Metal Mines,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100083,China 2)School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China 3)Fushun Mining Group Co.Ltd.,Fushun 113008,China 4)Laohutai Coal Mine,Fushun Mining Group Co.Ltd.Fushun 113003,China Corresponding author,E-mail:fslitie@yahoo.com.cn ABSTRACT Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background,an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load/unload response ratio (LURR)theory.It is shown that when the load/unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0sM s0.5,the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.72.When M1.4,the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth,and is generally 0.5 to 1.0 lower than the predicted magnitude,while the average fore- casting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.60.When 0.6sM<1.4,there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seis- micities with different mechanisms,which is not suitable to the load/unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness.With the increase of mining depth,the in-situ stress intensity is higher,and the prediction is better.According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine,the forecasting reliability is 0.8 and 0.73,respectively.The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity. KEY WORDS deep mining:mining-induced seismicity:magnitude:prediction 矿山开采导致的岩石动力学灾害，其中一类通 采掘部位，易于沿已存在的地质弱面或地质间断面 常发生在远离采掘工作面102m级别尺度以外.这 发生，也可产生新的岩体位错：③通常是大尺度采掘 类灾害的特点是：①发生的时间相对采掘扰动活动 空间应力重分布导致的地质间断面滑移施加动荷载 具有不确定的延迟性；②发生的空间位置往往偏离 作用的结果：④主破裂强度较高-.本文称此类 收稿日期：2010-10-26 基金项目：国家高技术发展研究计划资助项目(2008AA062104)第 33 卷 第 11 期 2011 年 11 月 北京科技大学学报 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Vol． 33 No． 11 Nov． 2011 基于岩体加卸载响应原理的强矿震危险性预测 李 铁1，2) 孙学会3) 吕毓国4) 盛继权4) 梅亭亭1，2) 1) 金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室，北京 100083 2) 北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院，北京 100083 3) 抚顺矿业集团有限责任公司，抚顺 113008 4) 抚顺矿业集团有限责任公司老虎台矿，抚顺 113003 通信作者，E-mail: fslitie@ yahoo． com． cn 摘 要 以抚顺老虎台矿田为工程背景，采用加卸载响应比理论，开展强矿震预测技术应用研究． 研究表明: 0≤ML≤0. 5 矿 震在各开采深度作为加卸载响应震级的预测效能均较好，对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度为 0. 72; ML≥1. 4 矿震作为加卸 载响应震级，具有深度尺度效应，响应震级与开采深度成正比，一般小于预测震级 0. 5 ～ 1. 0，对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信 度 0. 60; 0. 6≤ML ＜ 1. 4 矿震作为加卸载响应震级的随机性较大，分析是两种不同机制矿震混合的结果，不适宜作为加卸载响 应震级; 开采深度越大，地应力环境强度越高，预测敏感性和效果越好． 在阜新煤田和门头沟矿田进行普适性检验，预测信度 分别为 0. 8 和 0. 73． 试验结果表明，加卸载响应比理论和方法预测强矿震具有较好的效能和应用前景． 关键词 深部开采; 矿震; 震级; 预测 分类号 TD324; P315. 02 Predicting the risk of strong mining-induced seismicity based on the rock load /unload response theory LI Tie 1，2) ，SUN Xue-hui 3) ，L Yu-guo 4) ，SHENG Ji-quan4) ，MEI Ting-ting1，2) 1) Key Laboratory of High-Efficiency Mining and Safety of Metal Mines，Ministry of Education，Beijing 100083，China 2) School of Civil and Environmental Engineering，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 100083，China 3) Fushun Mining Group Co． Ltd． ，Fushun 113008，China 4) Laohutai Coal Mine，Fushun Mining Group Co． Ltd． ，Fushun 113003，China Corresponding author，E-mail: fslitie@ yahoo． com． cn ABSTRACT Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background，an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load /unload response ratio ( LURR) theory． It is shown that when the load /unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0≤ML≤0. 5，the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0. 72． When ML≥1. 4，the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth，and is generally 0. 5 to 1. 0 lower than the predicted magnitude，while the average fore￾casting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0. 60． When 0. 6≤ML ＜ 1. 4，there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seis￾micities with different mechanisms，which is not suitable to the load /unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness． With the increase of mining depth，the in-situ stress intensity is higher，and the prediction is better． According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine，the forecasting reliability is 0. 8 and 0. 73，respectively． The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity． KEY WORDS deep mining; mining-induced seismicity; magnitude; prediction 收稿日期: 2010--10--26 基金项目: 国家高技术发展研究计划资助项目( 2008AA062104) 矿山开采导致的岩石动力学灾害，其中一类通 常发生在远离采掘工作面 102 m 级别尺度以外． 这 类灾害的特点是: ①发生的时间相对采掘扰动活动 具有不确定的延迟性; ②发生的空间位置往往偏离 采掘部位，易于沿已存在的地质弱面或地质间断面 发生，也可产生新的岩体位错; ③通常是大尺度采掘 空间应力重分布导致的地质间断面滑移施加动荷载 作用的结果; ④主破裂强度较高［1 － 6］． 本文称此类 DOI:10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2011.11.007