MONETARY POLICY REPORT: FEBRUARY 2018 9 perceptions about job availability are currently at high taken longer for businesses to find workers in recent levels, as shown by the blue line in figure B years, yet wage growth has remained steady or slowed However, despite reports that employers are now Finally, while the aggregate labor market appears having more difficulties finding qualified workers, to be modestly tight at the moment, not all individual hiring has continued apace. Although payroll have benefited equally from these developments. employment gains have gradually slowed over time discussed in the main text, noticeable differences from about 250, 000 per month, on average, in 2014 in labor market outcomes remain present across to about 180,000 per month, on average, in 2017, job racial and ethnic groups. Moreover, the labor market growth remains consistent with further strengthening improvement in recent years has not been sufficient in the labor market. Finally, the pace of wage gains to make important progress in narrowing income has been moderate; while wage gains have likely been inequality. Finally, regional disparities are also striking, held down by the sluggish pace of productivity growth and in certain aspects these disparities have widened in recent years, serious labor shortages would probably in recent years; for example, the employment- bring about larger increases than have been observed to-population ratio for prime-age individuals has thus far recovered less for those outside of metro areas than for It is possible that labor shortages have arisen in those in metro areas(figure O). 5 certain pockets of the economy, which could be an early indication of bottlenecks that are not yet read transportation, health and education, leisure and hospitality, apparent in the aggregate labor market. However, even and professional and business services emerging supply constraints. In some industries, such as in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas: Signs of trade and transportation as well as leisure and hospitality, Growing Disparities, FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of employment growth has slowed markedly and it has Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 25) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/abor market-outcomes-in-metropolitan-and-non-metropolitan 3. Payroll gains in the range of about 90, 000 to 120,000 areas-signs-of-growing-disparities-20170925htm re estimated to be consistent with a constant nt rate and a decline in the labor force alysis behind this statement considered broad industries struction, manufacturing trade and C. Prime-age employment-to-population ratio by B. Job availability and hard-to-fill positions 35 Job availal 15 LL⊥L⊥_⊥L⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥⊥L」 199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018 NOTE: The data are 12-month centered moving averages. Larg 1982198619901994199820022006201020142018 ds believing jobs are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic plentiful minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100. Research. moving average of the percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one hard-to-fill job opening. Metropolitan and Non-metropolita seasona from the National Federation of Independent Business start in stem, september 25), wiww. fed ral reserve goy National Bureau of Economic Rescarch. Data are moston as detine SOURCE: For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; note that the Bureau of Labor Federation of Independent Business. Statistics is involved in the survey process for the Current Population Survey.MONETARY POLICY REPORT: FEBRUARY 2018 9 taken longer for businesses to find workers in recent years, yet wage growth has remained steady or slowed. Finally, while the aggregate labor market appears to be modestly tight at the moment, not all individuals have benefited equally from these developments. As discussed in the main text, noticeable differences in labor market outcomes remain present across racial and ethnic groups. Moreover, the labor market improvement in recent years has not been sufficient to make important progress in narrowing income inequality. Finally, regional disparities are also striking, and in certain aspects these disparities have widened in recent years; for example, the employment￾to-population ratio for prime-age individuals has recovered less for those outside of metro areas than for those in metro areas (figure C).5 perceptions about job availability are currently at high levels, as shown by the blue line in figure B. However, despite reports that employers are now having more difficulties finding qualified workers, hiring has continued apace. Although payroll employment gains have gradually slowed over time from about 250,000 per month, on average, in 2014 to about 180,000 per month, on average, in 2017, job growth remains consistent with further strengthening in the labor market.3 Finally, the pace of wage gains has been moderate; while wage gains have likely been held down by the sluggish pace of productivity growth in recent years, serious labor shortages would probably bring about larger increases than have been observed thus far. It is possible that labor shortages have arisen in certain pockets of the economy, which could be an early indication of bottlenecks that are not yet readily apparent in the aggregate labor market. However, even at the industry level it is difficult to see much evidence of emerging supply constraints.4 In some industries, such as trade and transportation as well as leisure and hospitality, employment growth has slowed markedly and it has Job availability 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Index 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 B. Job availability and hard-to-fill positions Percent Hard-to-fill NOTE: Job availability is the proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100. Hard-to-fill is the three-month moving average of the percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one hard-to-fill job opening, and it is seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. Monthly hard-to-fill data from the National Federation of Independent Business start in January 1986. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data are monthly. SOURCE: For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business. 3. Payroll gains in the range of about 90,000 to 120,000 per month are estimated to be consistent with a constant unemployment rate and a decline in the labor force participation rate in line with its demographically driven trend. 4. The analysis behind this statement considered six broad industries—construction, manufacturing, trade and Non-metro Smaller MSAs 72 74 76 78 80 82 Percent 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 C. Prime-age employment-to-population ratio by metropolitan status Monthly Larger MSAs NOTE: The data are 12-month centered moving averages. Larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) consist of 500,000 people or more, and smaller MSAs consist of 100,000 to 500,000 people. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. SOURCE: Alison Weingarden (2017), “Labor Market Outcomes in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas: Signs of Growing Disparities,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 25), www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ labor-market-outcomes-in-metropolitan-and-non-metropolitan-areas-signs-of -growing-disparities-20170925.htm. Calculations use data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is involved in the survey process for the Current Population Survey. transportation, health and education, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services. 5. See Alison Weingarden (2017), “Labor Market Outcomes in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas: Signs of Growing Disparities,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 25), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor￾market-outcomes-in-metropolitan-and-non-metropolitan￾areas-signs-of-growing-disparities-20170925.htm