ARGUMENT NO. 2 o Another argument that appeals to general theoretical considerations offers an inductive inference(归纳推理) based on the past record of folk theories. Folk physics, folk biology and the like all proved to be radically mistaken. Since folk theories generally turn out to be mistaken. it seems quite improbable that folk psychology will turn out true. Indeed, since folk psychology concerns a subject that is far more complex and difficult than any past folk theory, it seems wildly implausible that this one time we actually got things rightARGUMENT NO.2  Another argument that appeals to general theoretical considerations offers an inductive inference（归纳推理） based on the past record of folk theories. Folk physics, folk biology and the like all proved to be radically mistaken. Since folk theories generally turn out to be mistaken, it seems quite improbable that folk psychology will turn out true. Indeed, since folk psychology concerns a subject that is far more complex and difficult than any past folk theory, it seems wildly implausible that this one time we actually got things right