II. Direction of the real estate market requires that banks proactively respond to potential credit risks The shape of the real estate market represents the The National Bureau of Statistics(as shown in Figure greatest risk facing the banking industry. 6 Asset quality 2)reported that nationwide investment in real estate exposure is heightened based on disruption to the capital development was 6, 174 billion yuan as of year-end supply chain resulting from stagnant real estate sales 2011. Although this represents an increase of 27.9 falling real estate prices and mortgage loan defaults percent compared with the same period the previous as well as chain reactions in the real estate-related year, the rate of growth fell each month from August ndustries. Prior to 2010, the pillar of the banking hrough December industry was real estate Bank investment in real estate accounted for about 23 percent of fixed-asset Annual commodity property sold countrywide in 2011 nvestment in China. Since 2010, the central government was 1, 099 billion square meters, an increase of 4.9 has introduced escalating real estate regulation and percent over the same period the prior year. While control measures, such as purchase restrictions, loan property sales are positive, the increase in sales shrank by restrictions and affordable housing and property taxes. 3.6 percentage points when compared with the growth The central government also implemented controls in rate from January through November 8 areas such as land supply, bank credit, supervision and regulation and industry policy. In 2011, the real estate The same trend is reflected in the land market as well market was further subject to strict macro-level controls where the cash amount for commodity property sold that led to tighter capital conditions and accelerated throughout China was 5,911.9 billion yuan. The cash onsolidation. By year-end 2011, the balance of real amount represents an increase of 12. 1 percent over the estate loans from financial institutions in the banking ame period the prior dustry was 10.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.6 percent of all loans. Industry insiders estimate that bank According to the China Index Academy, the national k related to the real estate industry will further increase land market in February 2012 was also down Market veral times over. supply was weak and the sales volume of land in 300 cities nationwide dropped both in comparison with the The real estate market is showing weakness under previous month and in comparison with the same period stricter real estate policy regulation and controls, and he previous year In 300 cities throughout China, 2,023 otal parcels of land were put on the market, a drop of Figure 2. Real Estate Investment and Sales Growth Rates from January 2007 to December 2011 a- Real estate development investment completion percentage Area of commodity property sold: cumulative 100.00 emulative in comparison with the same period of the in comparison with the same period of the previous year 80.00 r Commodity property sales volume: cumulative in omparison with the same period of the previous ye 6 China Banking Association, "China Banker 011°, October26,201 People's Bank of China, 888gNa8888s8宫 "2011 Financial Institution 三豆9 Orientation Statistical Report", January 30, 2012. Data Source National Bureau of Statistics, wind Information tics, wind Information.4 II. Direction of the real estate market requires that banks proactively respond to potential credit risks The shape of the real estate market represents the greatest risk facing the banking industry.6 Asset quality exposure is heightened based on disruption to the capital supply chain resulting from stagnant real estate sales, falling real estate prices and mortgage loan defaults as well as chain reactions in the real estate-related industries. Prior to 2010, the pillar of the banking industry was real estate. Bank investment in real estate accounted for about 23 percent of fixed-asset investment in China. Since 2010, the central government has introduced escalating real estate regulation and control measures, such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and affordable housing and property taxes. The central government also implemented controls in areas such as land supply, bank credit, supervision and regulation and industry policy. In 2011, the real estate market was further subject to strict macro-level controls that led to tighter capital conditions and accelerated consolidation. By year-end 2011, the balance of real estate loans from financial institutions in the banking industry was 10.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.6 percent of all loans.7 Industry insiders estimate that bank risk related to the real estate industry will further increase several times over. The real estate market is showing weakness under stricter real estate policy regulation and controls, and market growth is slowing. The National Bureau of Statistics (as shown in Figure 2) reported that nationwide investment in real estate development was 6,174 billion yuan as of year-end 2011. Although this represents an increase of 27.9 percent compared with the same period the previous year, the rate of growth fell each month from August through December. Annual commodity property sold countrywide in 2011 was 1,099 billion square meters, an increase of 4.9 percent over the same period the prior year. While property sales are positive, the increase in sales shrank by 3.6 percentage points when compared with the growth rate from January through November.8 The same trend is reflected in the land market as well, where the cash amount for commodity property sold throughout China was 5,911.9 billion yuan. The cash amount represents an increase of 12.1 percent over the same period the prior year. According to the China Index Academy, the national land market in February 2012 was also down. Market supply was weak and the sales volume of land in 300 cities nationwide dropped both in comparison with the previous month and in comparison with the same period the previous year. In 300 cities throughout China, 2,023 total parcels of land were put on the market, a drop of 6 China Banking Association, “China Banker Investigation Report 2011”, October 26, 2011. 7 People’s Bank of China, “2011 Financial Institution Loan Investment Orientation Statistical Report”, January 30, 2012. 8 National Bureau of Statis￾tics, Wind Information. 4 房地产市场大幅调整带来的风险是银行业界面 临的最主要的风险 6 。银行业所面临的相关资 产质量风险主要集中在房地产销售停滞和价格 下降造成的开发商资金链断裂以及按揭贷款违 约事件，和房地产相关行业的连锁风险。过去 5 年，房地产作为国家的支柱行业，行业投资 约占中国固定资产投资的 23% 左右。自 2010 年以来，中央政府出台了一系列不断升级的房 地产调控措施 – 限购、限贷、保障房、房产税 等，已初步实现了对土地供应、银行信贷、机 构监管和产业政策等方面的控制。2011 年， 房地产市场遭遇严格宏观调控，弱势下行；房 地产企业资金紧张，整合加速。截止2011年末， 银行业金融机构房地产贷款余额为 10.73 万亿 元，占各项贷款的比重为 19.6%7 ，但据业内 人士估测，加上其它形式或渠道流向房地产行 业的隐性贷款，金融机构对房地产行业贷款的 敞口将成倍增长。 二、银行应把握房地产市场走势， 积极应对潜在信贷风险 在严格的房地产政策调控下，房地产市场已 经呈现弱势下行的局面， 并且有很大可能在 2012 年上半年持续。国家统计局发布的数据 显 示（ 如 图 2）， 截 止 到 2011 年 12 月 底， 全国房地产开发投资 61,740 亿元，同比增长 27.9%，增速已连续 5 个月下滑。1-12 月， 全国商品房销售面积 10.99 亿平方米，同比上 升 4.9%，升幅较 1-11 月下降 3.6 个百分点； 全国商品房销售金额 59,119 亿元，同比上升 12.1%，升幅较 1-11 月下降 3.9 个百分点 8 。 同时，土地市场也不容乐观。中国指数研究院 的数据显示，全国土地市场 2012 年 2 月仍延 续前期的低迷状态，市场供应乏力，全国 300 个城市的土地供应量环比、同比均有下滑。全 国 300 个城市共推出土地 2,023 宗，环比减少 28%，同比减少 27%；推出土地面积 8,555 万 平方米，环比减少 28%，同比减少 29%9 。 6 7 8 9 中国银行业协会，《中国银 行家调查报告2011》，2011 年10月26日 中国人民银行，《2011年 金融机构贷款投向统计报 告》，2012年1月30日 国家统计局，Wind资讯 中国指数研究院，《2012 年2月全国300个城市土地 市场交易情报》，2012年 3月11日， http://fdc.soufun.com/ report/5050.html 数据来源：国家统计局，Wind资讯 图2 2007年1月 – 2011年12月房地产投资及销售增速 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 房地产开发投资完成比额：累计同比 % 商品房销售额：累计同比 % 商品房销售面积：累计同比 % 2007-02 2007-04 2007-06 2007-08 2007-10 2007-12 2008-03 2008-05 2008-07 2008-09 2008-11 2009-02 2009-04 2009-06 2009-08 2009-10 2009-12 2010-03 2010-05 2010-09 2010-11 2011-02 2011-06 2011-10 2011-04 2011-08 2011-12 2010-07 Figure 2. Real Estate Investment and Sales Growth Rates from January 2007 to December 2011 Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information Real estate development investment completion percentage: cumulative % in comparison with the same period of the previous year Commodity property sales volume: cumulative % in comparison with the same period of the previous year Area of commodity property sold: cumulative % in comparison with the same period of the previous year –––– ––n–– ––––