6 THE CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER in discussing the development of Atlantic City,refers specifically to the resort cycle,3 and Noronha has suggested that 'tourism develops in three stages: i)discovery,ii)local response and initiative,and iii)institutionalized 'institution- alization).'4 It is also explicit in Christaller's concept that types of tourists change with the tourist areas.Research into the characteristics of visitors is widespread, but less has been done on their motivations and desires.One example is a typology conceived by Cohen,who characterizes tourists as 'institutionalized'or 'non- institutionalized,'and further as 'drifters','explorers,''individual mass tourists,' and 'organized mass tourists.'s Research by Plog into the psychology of travel,and the characterization of travellers as allocentrics,mid-centrics,and psychocentrics, substantiates Christaller's argument.6 Plog suggests that tourist areas are attractive to different types of visitors as the areas evolve,beginning with small numbers of adventuresome allocentrics,followed by increasing numbers of mid-centrics as the area becomes accessible,better serviced,and well known,and giving way to declining numbers of psychocentrics as the area becomes older,more outdated,and less different to the areas of origin of visitors.While the actual numbers of visitors may not decline for a long time,the potential market will reduce in size as the area has to compete with others that are more recently developed.Plog sums up his argument thus:'We can visualize a destination moving across a spectrum,however gradually or slowly,but far too often ineroxably toward the potential of its own demise.Destination areas carry with them the potential seeds of their own destruc- tion,as they allow themselves to become more commercialized and lose their qualities which originally attracted tourists.' While other writers,such as Cohen,?have warned against the problems of unilinear models of social change,there seems to be overwhelming evidence that the general pattern of tourist area evolution is consistent.The rates of growth and change may vary widely,but the final result will be the same in almost all cases. A HYPOTHETICAL CYCLE OF AREA EVOLUTION The pattern which is put forward here is based upon the product cycle con- cept,whereby sales of a product proceed slowly at first,experience a rapid rate of growth,stabilize,and subsequently decline;in other words,a basic asymptotic curve is followed.Visitors will come to an area in small numbers initially,restricted by lack of access,facilities,and local knowledge.As facilities are provided and awareness grows,visitor numbers will increase.With marketing,information dis- semination,and further facility provision,the area's popularity will grow rapidly. Eventually,however,the rate of increase in visitor numbers will decline as levels of carrying capacity are reached.These may be identified in terms of environmental factors (e.g.land scarcity,water quality,air quality),of physical plant (e.g.trans- portation,accommodation,other services),or of social factors (e.g.crowding, resentment by the local population).As the attractiveness of the area declines relative to other areas,because of overuse and the impacts of visitors,the actual number of visitors may also eventually decline. The stages through which it is suggested that tourist areas pass are illustrated in Figure 1.The exploration stage is characterized by small numbers of tourists,6 THE CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER in discussing the development of Atlantic City, refers specifically to the resort cycle,3 and Noronha has suggested that ‘tourism develops in three stages: i) discovery, ii) local response and initiative, and iii) institutionalized ‘institution￾ali~ation).’~ It is also explicit in Christaller’s concept that types of tourists change with the tourist areas. Research into the characteristics of visitors is widespread, but less has been done on their motivations and desires. One example is a typology conceived by Cohen, who characterizes tourists as ‘institutionalized’ or ‘non￾institutionalized,’ and further as ‘drifters’, ‘explorers,’ ‘individual mass tourists,’ and ‘organized mass to~rists.’~ Research by Plog into the psychology of travel, and the characterization of travellers as allocentrics, mid-centrics, and psychocentrics, substantiates Christaller’s argument.6 Plog suggests that tourist areas are attractive to different types of visitors as the areas evolve, beginning with small numbers of adventuresome allocentrics, followed by increasing numbers of mid-centrics as the area becomes accessible, better serviced, and well known, and giving way to declining numbers of psychocentrics as the area becomes older, more outdated, and less different to the areas of origin of visitors. While the actual numbers of visitors may not decline for a long time, the potential market will reduce in size as the area has to compete with others that are more recently developed. Plog sums up his argument thus: ‘We can visualize adestination moving across a spectrum, however gradually or slowly, but far too often ineroxably toward the potential of its own demise. Destination areas carry with them the potential seeds of their own destruc￾tion, as they allow themselves to become more commercialized and lose their qualities which originally attracted tourists.’ While other writers, such as Cohen,’ have warned against the problems of unilinear models of social change, there seems to be overwhelming evidence that the general pattern of tourist area evolution is consistent. The rates of growth and change may vary widely, but the final result will be the same in almost all cases. A HYPOTHETICAL CYCLE OF AREA EVOLUTION The pattern which is put forward here is based upon the product cycle con￾cept,whereby sales of a product proceed slowly at first, experience a rapid rate of growth, stabilize, and subsequently decline; in other words, a basic asymptotic curve is followed. Visitors will come to an area in small numbers initially, restricted by lack of access, facilities, and local knowledge. As facilities are provided and awareness grows, visitor numbers will increase. With marketing, information dis￾semination, and further facility provision, the area’s popularity will grow rapidly. Eventually, however, the rate of increase in visitor numbers will decline as levels of carrying capacity are reached. These may be identified in terms of environmental factors (e.g. land scarcity, water quality, air quality), of physical plant (e.g. trans￾portation, accommodation, other services), or of social factors (e.g. crodding, resentment by the local population). As the attractiveness of the area declines relative to other areas, because of overuse and the impacts of visitors, the actual number of visitors may also eventually decline. The stages through which it is suggested that tourist areas pass are illustrated in Figure 1. The exploration stage is characterized by small numbers of tourists