52 MAIRE NI BHROLCHAIN justification for lack of rigour.Besides,there are,as behaviour and of the factors that influence them. Freedman(1985)points out,several successful hard Further afield,consider the formation of stars and sciences that are also in this position:astronomy,for galaxies,the life-cycle of parasites,the mysteries of example.He also mentions epidemiology in this embryonic development,the activities of the connection,as a body of knowledge close to the immune system,and countless other marvels of nat- social sciences.We could add archaeology,palacon- ure.Even superficial acquaintance with these tology,and evolutionary biology.Inability to do phenomena is likely to inspire a sense of wonder at experiments is not a barrier to putting our causal the subtleties of the natural world.If indeed,as we inferences on a much sounder footing.The strategy all suppose,the social world is even more complex of looking out for natural experiments was than the natural and physical world,the same sense mentioned earlier. of awe could be inspired by social processes if we had well-documented instances of how they work. One day,perhaps,we may have such evidence.In the Common Sense meantime,we need to keep in mind the likelihood Another factor currently limiting the sophistication that there are untold but scientifically accessible of causal thinking in the social sciences is the appeal intricacies beneath the surface of the phenomena of common sense interpretations both to social we routinely deal with in the social sciences.A minor but interesting example of the kind of thing scientists themselves and to their audiences.If com- I have in mind is in the birth-dates of Dutch foot- mon sense were a reliable guide,science in general and social science in particular would be unneces- ballers (Dudink,1994).It seems that there is a sary.Common sense would give us the answer and greater preponderance of August to October birth- there would be no need to look any further.It is dates among professional Dutch footballers than known that in the physical and natural sciences com- would be expected on the basis of seasonal varia- mon-sense explanations often do not hold good tions in births.One explanation suggested is that a (Wolpert,1992).On this general theme,one scientist subtle social selection process is at work.Children with these birth months will be older than their remarks that 'the most important experience you have as an experimental scientist is realizing the class-mates and thus more developed physically extent to which you can be fooled,the extent to and mentally and,hence,better sports performers which your impulses and aspirations lead you to relative to their class-mates.They are therefore believe things which have nothing to do with the more likely to have been noticed,encouraged,and way things actually work'25.Social scientists some- given further opportunities and training.The bias, if such it be,is not perceptual:the children with times argue as though common-sense explanations these birth-dates are indeed better relative per- are a kind of default,the position we adopt in the absence of better evidence.This is,of course,utterly formers in the context in which they are placed by wrong.The only defensible default is that'we don't an administrative arrangement.The bias arises know:A weakness of the social sciences,currently, from the teachers'not making allowance for the chronological age of younger pupils and appears to is that we do not have enough examples of causal structure that are both well-grounded in evidence result in a significant career advantage for the older and contrary to common sense.It may well be that ones. we do not have enough examples of social phenom- ena whose causal properties are well established, A Sense of Scale period. Does the personal and political importance of our subject matter in social science -most especially Subtlety and a Sense of Wonder family matters -impede us from developing a proper sense of scale?Regarding the family,for Among the lacunae in these early days of our example,how accurate an appreciation do we have disciplines are empirically well-established exam- both of how bad the worst of family life can be and ples of the subtlety of social and demographic how frequent anti-social behaviour is within its/     "    7    F #%&'-*                 A     $             "       ?           !                          5     "          
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