TRADING PLACES: Industries for Free Trade By HELEN MILNER* INTRODUCTION e e or rom are he m tional attention several times during the 2oth century.In the Io2os,U.S. trade policy made a U-turn.Protectionism had declined from the Dingley tariff bill in 1897 until the Fordney-McCumber tariff law of 1922,as the average value of tariffs on dutiable goods fell from 45 percent to 28 percent.But this downward trend was reversed during the Igzos:be- tween 1922 and 1930,the United States closed its market dramatically, with tariffs attaining an ad valorem average of 53 percent.This level,set by the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff,was one of the highest ever,and the highest so far in the zoth century. Beginning in the 193os,protectionism in the U.S.once again abated. The Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (R.T.A.A.),which was intro- duced in 1934 and served as a model for future trade acts,initiated the opening of the American market.Between 1934 and 1972,average U.S. tariff levels declined by some 7o percent.3 By 1972,tariffs averaged a mere 9.9 percent.+ In the early 1970s,the course of U.S.trade policy again became a source of heated debate.Among the questions that were raised about the future of American trade policy was what direction trade policy would take in the 197os and beyond.Many observers and scholars feared a resurgence of rapidly rising protectionism and international trade wars.5 Extrapolat- *I would like to thank David Baldwin,Jeffry Frieden,Stephen Haggard,Robert Keohane, and the participants at the Ford Foundation Conference on Blending Political and Economic Analysis of International Trade Policies for their helpful comments. 'Robert Pastor,Congress and the Politics of U.S.Foreign Economic Policy (Berkeley:Univer- sity of California Press,198o),Table 3,p.78;David Lake,"International Economic Structures and American Foreign Economic Policy,1887-1934,"World Politics 35 (July 1983),517-43, Table 2,p.534. lbid. 3 U.S.Tariff Commission,Trade Barriers:An Overview,No.665(Washington,DC:G.P.O., 1974,81-82 Pastor (fn.1),Table 6,p.119. s Harald Malmgren,"Coming Trade Wars?"Foreign Policy I (Winter 197o),115-43; C.Fred Bergsten,"The Crisis in US Trade Policy,"Foreign Affairs 49(July 1971),619-35;JuneTRADING PLACES: Industries for Free Trade By HELEN MILNER" TODAY, protectionism is once again a central political issue in the United States. Pressures for protectionism have captured the na￾tional attention several times during the zoth century. In the 1920s, U.S. trade policy made a U-turn. Protectionism had declined from the Dingley tariff bill in 1897 until the Fordney-McCumber tariff law of 1922, as the average value of tariffs on dutiable goods fell from 45 percent to 28 percent.l But this downward trend was reversed during the 1920s: be￾tween 1922 and 1930, the United States closed its market dramatically, with tariffs attaining an ad valorem average of 53 per~ent.~ This level, set by the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff, was one of the highest ever, and the highest so far in the zoth century. Beginning in the I~~OS, protectionism in the U.S. once again abated. The Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (R.T.A.A.), which was intro￾duced in 1934 and served as a model for future trade acts, initiated the opening of the American market. Between 1934 and 1972, average U.S. tariff levels declined by some 70 percent.3 By 1972, tariffs averaged a mere 9.9 percent.4 In the early I~~OS, the course of U.S. trade policy again became a source of heated debate. Among the questions that were raised about the future of American trade policy was what direction trade policy would take in the 1970s and beyond. Many observers and scholars feared a resurgence of rapidly rising protectionism and international trade wars.5 Extrapolat- * I would like to thank David Baldwin, Jeffry Frieden, Stephen Haggard, Robert Keohane, and the participants at the Ford Foundation Conference on Blending Political and Economic Analysis of International Trade Policies for their helpful comments. Robert Pastor, Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Economic Policy (Berkeley: Univer￾sity of California Press, 1980), Table 3, p. 78; David Lake, "International Economic Structures and American Foreign Economic Policy, 1887-1934," World Politics 35 (July 1983), 517-43, Table 2, p. 534. 'Ibid. 3 U.S. Tariff Commission, Trade Barriers: An Oueruiew, No. 665 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1974), 81-82. 4 Pastor (fn. I), Table 6, p. I 19. 5 Harald Malmgren, "Coming Trade Wars?" Foreign Policy I (Winter 1970), 115-43; C. Frrrl Bergsten, "The Crisis in US Trade Policy," Foreign Affairs 49 (July 1971)~619-35; June I