第14卷第5期 智能系统学报 Vol.14 No.5 2019年9月 CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems Sep.2019 D0:10.11992/tis.201807022 网络出版地址：http:/kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20190527.1353.008.html 空间故障树与因素空间融合的智能可靠性分析方法 崔铁军2，汪培庄3 (1.辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院，辽宁阜新123000：2.大连交通大学辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程 技术研究中心，辽宁大连116028：3.辽宁工程技术大学数学与系统科学研究院，辽宁阜新123000) 摘要：现有系统可靠性分析方法一般具有针对性，缺乏广泛的适应性和扩展性。由于智能科学、信息科学和 大数据技术的涌现和发展，使得传统可靠性分析技术难以适应新的需要。因此作者提出了空间故障树理论，目 的是分析多因素影响下的系统可靠性变化特征。将空间故障树理论与因素空间理论、云模型、模糊数学及系 统稳定性等相结合，使其具有智能分析和故障大数据处理能力，以满足未来技术环境下的分析要求。本文论述 了空间故障树和因素空间的发展史及主要理论与功能：以及两种理论结合，描述和分析系统演化过程的可行 性。研究表明.空间故障树理论具有良好的扩展性和适应性，可适应未来技术环境，也可作为系统演化过程分 析的普适框架。 关键词：安全科学；安全系统工程：空间故障树；因素空间；系统可靠性；智能科学；系统演化过程：普适框架 中图分类号：X913:C931.1:TP18文献标志码：A文章编号：1673-4785(2019)05-0853-12 中文引用格式：崔铁军，汪培庄.空间故障树与因素空间融合的智能可靠性分析方法J.智能系统学报，2019,14(5)： 853-864. 英文引用格式：CUITiejun,WANG Peizhuang..Intelligent reliability analysis method based on space fault tree and factor space. CAAI transactions on intelligent systems,2019,14(5):853-864. Intelligent reliability analysis method based on space fault tree and factor space CUI Tiejun,WANG Peizhuang (1.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China;2.Tunnel Underground Structure Engineering Center of Liaoning,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China;3.Institute of Mathematics and Sys- tems Science,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China) Abstract:The existing system reliability analysis methods are generally targeted and lack extensive adaptability and ex- pansibility.Moreover,due to the emergence and development of intelligent science,information science,and big data technology,the traditional reliability analysis technology can hardly meet the new demands.Therefore,the authors pro- pose the space fault tree theory to analyze the reliability change characteristics of systems influenced by multiple factors. The space fault tree theory is combined with factor space theory,cloud model,fuzzy mathematics,and system stability theory to enable it have the ability of intelligent analysis and fault big data processing,so as to meet the analysis require- ments in the future technology environment.This paper discusses the development history and the main theories and functions of the space fault tree and factor space,as well as the feasibility of combining these two theories to describe and analyze the system evolution process.The results show that the space fault tree theory has good expansibility and adaptability;it adapts to future technology environment and can also be used as a universal framework for the analysis of a system evolution process. Keywords:safety science;safety system engineering:space fault tree;factor space;system reliability;intelligent sci- ence;system evolution process;universal framework 收稿日期：2018-07-21.网络出版日期：2019-05-28. 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(51704141)：国家重点研发 系统可靠性理论是安全科学的基础理论之 计划项目(2017Y下℃1503102)：国家自然科学基金委 主任基金项目(61350003). 一。源于系统工程，在安全科学领域系统可靠性 通信作者：崔铁军.E-mail:c中.159@163.com 主要关注于系统发生故障和事故的可能性。由于DOI: 10.11992/tis.201807022 网络出版地址: http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/23.1538.TP.20190527.1353.008.html 空间故障树与因素空间融合的智能可靠性分析方法 崔铁军1,2，汪培庄3 （1. 辽宁工程技术大学 安全科学与工程学院，辽宁 阜新 123000; 2. 大连交通大学 辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程 技术研究中心，辽宁 大连 116028; 3. 辽宁工程技术大学 数学与系统科学研究院，辽宁 阜新 123000） 摘 要：现有系统可靠性分析方法一般具有针对性，缺乏广泛的适应性和扩展性。由于智能科学、信息科学和 大数据技术的涌现和发展，使得传统可靠性分析技术难以适应新的需要。因此作者提出了空间故障树理论，目 的是分析多因素影响下的系统可靠性变化特征。将空间故障树理论与因素空间理论、云模型、模糊数学及系 统稳定性等相结合，使其具有智能分析和故障大数据处理能力，以满足未来技术环境下的分析要求。本文论述 了空间故障树和因素空间的发展史及主要理论与功能；以及两种理论结合，描述和分析系统演化过程的可行 性。研究表明，空间故障树理论具有良好的扩展性和适应性，可适应未来技术环境，也可作为系统演化过程分 析的普适框架。 关键词：安全科学；安全系统工程；空间故障树；因素空间；系统可靠性；智能科学；系统演化过程；普适框架 中图分类号：X913；C931.1；TP18 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673−4785(2019)05−0853−12 中文引用格式：崔铁军, 汪培庄. 空间故障树与因素空间融合的智能可靠性分析方法 [J]. 智能系统学报, 2019, 14(5): 853–864. 英文引用格式：CUI Tiejun, WANG Peizhuang. Intelligent reliability analysis method based on space fault tree and factor space[J]. CAAI transactions on intelligent systems, 2019, 14(5): 853–864. Intelligent reliability analysis method based on space fault tree and factor space CUI Tiejun1,2 ，WANG Peizhuang3 (1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China; 2. Tunnel & Underground Structure Engineering Center of Liaoning, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, China; 3. Institute of Mathematics and Sys￾tems Science, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China) Abstract: The existing system reliability analysis methods are generally targeted and lack extensive adaptability and ex￾pansibility. Moreover, due to the emergence and development of intelligent science, information science, and big data technology, the traditional reliability analysis technology can hardly meet the new demands. Therefore, the authors pro￾pose the space fault tree theory to analyze the reliability change characteristics of systems influenced by multiple factors. The space fault tree theory is combined with factor space theory, cloud model, fuzzy mathematics, and system stability theory to enable it have the ability of intelligent analysis and fault big data processing, so as to meet the analysis require￾ments in the future technology environment. This paper discusses the development history and the main theories and functions of the space fault tree and factor space, as well as the feasibility of combining these two theories to describe and analyze the system evolution process. The results show that the space fault tree theory has good expansibility and adaptability; it adapts to future technology environment and can also be used as a universal framework for the analysis of a system evolution process. Keywords: safety science; safety system engineering; space fault tree; factor space; system reliability; intelligent sci￾ence; system evolution process; universal framework 系统可靠性理论是安全科学的基础理论之 一。源于系统工程，在安全科学领域系统可靠性 主要关注于系统发生故障和事故的可能性。由于 收稿日期：2018−07−21. 网络出版日期：2019−05−28. 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目 (51704141)；国家重点研发 计划项目 (2017YFC1503102)；国家自然科学基金委 主任基金项目 (61350003). 通信作者：崔铁军. E-mail：ctj.159@163.com. 第 14 卷第 5 期 智 能 系 统 学 报 Vol.14 No.5 2019 年 9 月 CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems Sep. 2019