A TOURISM AREA CYCLE OF EVOLUTION 11 lantic City,could result in renewed growth and expansion as shown by curve A. Minor modification and adjustment to capacity levels,and continued protection of resources,could allow continued growth at a much reduced rate (curve B).A readjustment to meet all capacity levels would enable a more stable level of visitation to be maintained after an initial readjustment downwards (curve c) Continued overuse of resources,non-replacement of aging plant,and decreasing competitiveness with other areas would result in the marked decline (curve D). Finally,the intervention of war,disease,or other catastrophic events would result in an immediate decline in numbers of visitors(for example,Northern Ireland from 1969),from which it may be extremely difficult to return to high levels of visitation. If the decline continues for a long time,the area and its facilities may no longer be attractive to the majority of tourists after the problem is solved. To date,the arguments put forward in this paper are general and are only now being substantiated in terms of quantifiable data.A major problem in testing the basic hypothesis and modelling the curve for specific areas is that of obtaining data on visitors to areas over long periods.These are rarely available,and it is particu- larly unlikely that they will date back to the onset of tourist visits.However,those data which are available for a few areas for periods in excess of thirty or forty years substantiate the general arguments put forward in this paper. At the same time,of course,the shape of the curve must be expected to vary for different areas,reflecting variations in such factors as rate of development,num- bers of visitors,accessibility,government policies,and numbers of similar com- peting areas.It has been clearly shown,for example,that each improvement in accessibility to a recreation area results in significantly increased visitation and an expansion of the market area.13 The development of resorts in Britain,France, Ontario,and the north-eastern United States bears witness to this process.14 If development of facilities and accessibility is delayed,for whatever reason (e.g. local opposition,lack of capital,lack of outside interest),the exploration period may be much longer than anticipated.In the case of new 'instant'resorts,where tourist facilities are established in an area in which there has been little or no previous settlement,the first two stages in Figure I may be of minimal significance or absent,a situation noted by Noronha as particularly applicable to some de- veloping nations.'5 The classic,well-established tourist areas of the world (i.e. those which have been popular over several decades),frequently reveal evidence of having passed through all of the postulated stages.The resort areas of the northern Mediterranean,Britain,the north-eastern seaboard of the United States,and parts of Florida have moved steadily through an evolutionary sequence.Other areas, such as Hawaii,the Caribbean and Pacific islands,and the resort areas of north Africa,are in earlier stages of the cycle,but the pattern of visitation strongly approximates the curve illustrated in Figure 1. These observations also suggest that a change of attitude is required on the part of those who are responsible for planning,developing,and managing tourist areas. Tourist attractions are not infinite and timeless but should be viewed and treated as finite and possibly non-renewable resources.They could then be more carefully protected and preserved.The development of the tourist area could be kept within predetermined capacity limits,and its potential competitiveness maintained over aA TOURISM AREA CYCLE OF EVOLUTION 11 lantic City, could result in renewed growth and expansion as shown by curve A. Minor modification and adjustment to capacity levels, and continued protection of resources, could allow continued growth at a much reduced rate (curve B). A readjustment to meet all capacity levels would enable a more stable level of visitation to be maintained after an initial readjustment downwards (curve c) Continued overuse of resources, non-replacement of aging plant, and decreasing competitiveness with other areas would result in the marked decline (curve D). Finally, the intervention of war, disease, or other catastrophic events would result in an immediate decline in numbers of visitors (for example, Northern Ireland from 1969), from which it may be extremely difficult to return to high levels of visitation. If the decline continues for a long time, the area and its facilities may no longer be attractive to the majority of tourists after the problem is solved. To date, the arguments put forward in this paper are general and are only now being substantiated in terms of quantifiable data. A major problem in testing the basic hypothesis and modelling the curve for specific areas is that of obtaining data on visitors to areas over long periods. These are rarely available, and it is particu￾larly unlikely that they will date back to the onset of tourist visits. However, those data which are available for a few areas for periods in excess of thirty or forty years substantiate the general arguments put forward in this paper. At the same time, of course, the shape of the curve must be expected to vary for different areas, reflecting variations in such factors as rate of development, num￾bers of visitors, accessibility, government policies, and numbers of similar com￾peting areas. It has been clearly shown, for example, that each improvement in accessibility to a recreation area results in significantly increased visitation and an expansion of the market area.13 The development of resorts in Britain, France, Ontario, and the north-eastern United States bears witness to this process. l4 If development of facilities and accessibility is delayed, for whatever reason (e.g. local opposition, lack of capital, lack of outside interest), the exploration period may be much longer than anticipated. In the case of new ‘instant’ resorts, where tourist facilities are established in an area in which there has been little or no previous settlement, the first two stages in Figure 1 may be of minimal significance or absent, a situation noted by Noronha as particularly applicable to some de￾veloping nations. l5 The classic, well-established tourist areas of the world (i.e. those which have been popular over several decades), frequently reveal evidence of having passed through all of the postulated stages. The resort areas of the northern Mediterranean, Britain, the north-eastern seaboard of the United States, and parts of Florida have moved steadily through an evolutionary sequence. Other areas, such as Hawaii, the Caribbean and Pacific islands, and the resort areas of north Africa, are in earlier stages of the cycle, but the pattern of visitation strongly approximates the curve illustrated in Figure 1. These observations also suggest that a change of attitude is required on the part of those who are responsible for planning, developing, and managing tourist areas. Tourist attractions are not infinite and timeless but should be viewed and treated as finite and possibly non-renewable resources. They could then be more carefully protected and preserved. The development of the tourist area could be kept within predetermined capacity limits, and its potential competitiveness maintained over a