Intensive Study 2 Zebiak and mark cane research scientists at columbia University, had developed a computerized forecast model that correctly predicted El Nino s occurrences in 1982, 86 and 91, and it had pointed to a recurrence in 98. But the data appearing on Zebiak's screen from satellite and sea-surface monitors across the Pacific were unmistakable: El Nino was already beginning. A huge pool of warm water-larger than the United States and some 600 feet deep- was moving slowly but surely eastward toward South America2 Zebiak and Mark Cane, research scientists at Columbia University, had developed a computerized forecast model that correctly predicted El Niñ o's occurrences in 1982, ’86 and ’91, and it had pointed to a recurrence in ’98. But the data appearing on Zebiak’s screen from satellite and sea-surface monitors across the Pacific were unmistakable: El Niñ o was already beginning. A huge pool of warm water — larger than the United States and some 600 feet deep — was moving slowly but surely eastward toward South America. Intensive Study