Abstract The cell phone revolution warrants an examination of its energy impacts future. Thus, our model adheres to two requirements: it can evaluate e since 1990; and it is flexible enough to predict future energy needs. Mathematically speaking, our model treats households as state machines and uses actual demographic data to guide state transitions. We produce national projections by simu- ting multiple households. Our bottom-up approach remains flexible, allowing us to: 1 model energy consumption for the current United States, 2)determine efficient phone adoption schemes in emerging nations, 3) assess t t of wasteful practices, and 4) predict future energy needs. We show that the exclusive adoption of landlines by an emerging nation would be more than twice as efficient as the exclusive adoption of cell phones. However, we also show that the elemination of certain wasteful practices can make cell phone adoption 175% more efficient at the national level. Furthermore we give two forecasts of the current United States, revealing that a collaboration between cell phone users and manufacturers car result in savings of more than 3.9 billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent over the next 50 years Problem Back ckgroune In the year 1990, less than 3 percent of Americans owned cell phones ITU. Since then,a growing number of households have elected to ditch their landline in favor of acquiring cellular phones for each household member. Our task is to develop a model for analyzing how the cell hone revolution impacts electricity consumption at the national level Such a model ought be able to Assess the energy cost of the cell phone revolution in America Determine an efficient way of introducing phone service to an nation like America. Examine the effects of wasteful cell phone habits Predict future energy needs of a nation(based on multiple growth scenarios. Assumptions The population of the United States is increasing at a rate of roughly 3. 3 million people er year(according to the U.S. Census Bureau The relatively stable energy needs of business landlines, government landlines, payphones etc. have a negligible impact on energy consumption dynamics during the household transition from landlines to cell phones No household member old enough to need phone service is ever without phone service Citizens with more than one cell phone are rare enough to have a negligible energy The energy consumption of the average cell phone re The UMAP Journal 30(3)(2009). @Copyright 2009 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reservedAbstract The ongoing cell phone revolution warrants an examination of its energy impacts – past, present, and future. Thus, our model adheres to two requirements: it can evaluate energy use since 1990; and it is flexible enough to predict future energy needs. Mathematically speaking, our model treats households as state machines and uses actual demographic data to guide state transitions. We produce national pro jections by simu￾lating multiple households. Our bottom-up approach remains flexible, allowing us to: 1) model energy consumption for the current United States, 2) determine efficient phone adoption schemes in emerging nations, 3) assess the impact of wasteful practices, and 4) predict future energy needs. We show that the exclusive adoption of landlines by an emerging nation would be more than twice as efficient as the exclusive adoption of cell phones. However, we also show that the elemination of certain wasteful practices can make cell phone adoption 175% more efficient at the national level. Furthermore, we give two forecasts of the current United States, revealing that a collaboration between cell phone users and manufacturers can result in savings of more than 3.9 billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent over the next 50 years. Problem Background In the year 1990, less than 3 percent of Americans owned cell phones [ITU]. Since then, a growing number of households have elected to ditch their landline in favor of acquiring cellular phones for each household member. Our task is to develop a model for analyzing how the cell phone revolution impacts electricity consumption at the national level. Such a model ought be able to: • Assess the energy cost of the cell phone revolution in America. • Determine an efficient way of introducing phone service to an nation like America. • Examine the effects of wasteful cell phone habits. • Predict future energy needs of a nation (based on multiple growth scenarios.) Assumptions • The population of the United States is increasing at a rate of roughly 3.3 million people per year (according to the U.S. Census Bureau). • The relatively stable energy needs of business landlines, government landlines, payphones, etc. have a negligible impact on energy consumption dynamics during the household transition from landlines to cell phones. • No household member old enough to need phone service is ever without phone service. • Citizens with more than one cell phone are rare enough to have a negligible energy impact. • The energy consumption of the average cell phone remains constant. The UMAP Journal 30 (3) (2009). ©Copyright 2009 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved