1987 Constructing Institutions Table 1.The Double Polarization in West Germany,1980: Left Versus Right "How would you describe your political attitude?" Strong Middle Middle Strong No Respondents (n) Left Left Center Right Right Position Ecology activists (98) 9% 27% 29% 15% 3% 14% General public (1,088) 3 16 39 23 6 12 Business leaders (130) 1 8 30 49 & 3 Source:Milbrath 1981a,1981b;Lauber 1983. spending too much time on foreign affairs health)while minimizing the dangers instead of local concerns,respond,"You from casual contact with carriers of can't explain one without the other.If the AIDS.Gays are good in the egalitarian money was not going to Central America, view because they are antiestablishment we would have the money to fix the and because they reduce differences sewers." among people.Only cultural theory ex- Why,if we are dealing with a reason- plains why,when we know a group's able adaptation to emerging knowledge, general ideology,we can tell how much do attitudes to political authority dis- danger they will impute to technology tinguish so well positions on nuclear versus AIDS. power?Why,if there are major personal- Now this conclusion,which is sure to ity differences,do ecologists and environ- be contested,depends on a substantial mentalists and businessmen divide so scholarly apparatus.How can laymen, neatly on general ideological grounds? that is,most of us most of the time,figure Why,if it is the voluntary/involuntary out what our preferences ought to be? distinction that matters,are there such strong and similar differences on public The Calculation order and defense?Rooting explanation in of Preferences adherence to several different ways of life rather than the usual left-right dichotomy, How do people make so much,derive I think,makes more sense out of the data. so many preferences,from so few clues? A striking contemporary example con- We know that most people are not inter- necting culture and risk comes from per- ested in or knowledgeable about most ceptions of acquired immune deficiency issues most of the time.Consequently,the syndrome.The more hierarchical the clues must be exceedingly simple.Even group,I hypothesize,following cultural the highly educated and interested cannot theory,the more it minimizes techno- know much about most matters of politics logical danger as the price of progress and policy,yet they are able to generate while maximizing fear of casual contact and express preferences when necessary. with people who have AIDS.For,in its Indeed,the educated may well be getting view,when people violate divine com- more than their due from social scientists. mandments,the Lord brings plague.Con- Though they do know more about a few versely,egalitarians tend to grossly over- major issues than the less educated,peo- estimate the dangers from technology(on ple with high levels of formal education grounds that the social and economic rela- have many more preferences than they tionships they dislike are bad for your can know much,if anything,about.It is 15