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We used to have a view that 1)there was a system Bretton Woods) that evaporated thirty years ago into no system at all and 2)now a semi-system has emerged anew. But, in fact, the system has been the same throughout, just manifesting itself in different forms because the original emerging markets(Europe and Japan)developed and did not need the center's intermediation any more. There was no one to replace these countries for two decades. But with the collapse of socialism came a new litter of emerging markets, and the background system that is the incubator of such economies has reanimated itself erging So we can anticipate some issues that were familiar 50 years ago returning to center stage of the economics of international finance. Can the center survive with two reserve currencies? As the dollar replaced sterling as the preferred reserve currency, will the euro replace the dollar? How long can trade account countries insulate their domestic financial markets through capital controls? Does the system benefit and ntrench the economic and geo-political power of the center country(i. e the De Gaulle-Rueff view ) Does the center country balance sheet make it a liquidity-providing bank to the periphery, borrowing short term and lending long, and validating domestic banking systems (i.e. the Despres-Kindelberger-Salant view)? Is the IMf the manager of a fixed rate system after all? Will the SDr ever be more than a currency basket? References Bordo, Michael and Flandreau, Marc, "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes and globalization, NBER Working Paper 8584, November 2001 System: A Historical Overview" in Michael Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds, A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System, University of Chicago Press, 1993 Macroeconomics of the Open Economy, Peter Kenen Ed Princeton University Press 1995, pp.. e:The Eichengreen Barry, "Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes, in Understanding Interdependenc Giovannini, Alberto, How Do Fixed-Exchange-Rate Regimes Work? Evidence from the Gold Standard for Exchange Rate Management, New York, Academic Press, 1989, pp 13.Chard Portes, eds, Blueprints Bretton Woods and the EMs, " in Marcus Miller, Barry Eichengreen, and Ri Helpman Elhanan, "An Exploration of the Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes, "Journal of political Economy,89,1981,pp.865-890 Kindelberger, Charles P,"Balance of Payments Deficits and the International Market for Liquidity, Princeton Essays in International Finance, no. 46(May, 1965), Princeton University International Finance McKinnon. Ronald and Schnobl, Gunther."The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating and original Sin, mimeo January 2003 Rueff, Jacques and Fred Hirsch, The Role and Rule of Gold: An Argument, Princeton Essays in International Finance, no 47(June, 1965), Princeton University International Finance Section.We used to have a view that 1) there was a system (Bretton Woods) that evaporated thirty years ago into no system at all and 2) now a semi-system has emerged anew. But, in fact, the system has been the same throughout, just manifesting itself in different forms because the original emerging markets (Europe and Japan) developed and did not need the center’s intermediation any more. There was no one to replace these countries for two decades. But with the collapse of socialism came a new litter of emerging markets, and the background system that is the incubator of such economies has reanimated itself. So we can anticipate some issues that were familiar 50 years ago returning to center stage of the economics of international finance. Can the center survive with two reserve currencies? As the dollar replaced sterling as the preferred reserve currency, will the euro replace the dollar? How long can trade account countries insulate their domestic financial markets through capital controls? Does the system benefit and entrench the economic and geo-political power of the center country (i.e. the DeGaulle-Rueff view)? Does the center country balance sheet make it a liquidity-providing bank to the periphery, borrowing short term and lending long, and validating domestic banking systems (i.e. the Despres-Kindelberger-Salant view)? Is the IMF the manager of a fixed rate system after all? Will the SDR ever be more than a currency basket? References Bordo, Michael and Flandreau, Marc, "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes and Globalization," NBER Working Paper 8584, November 2001. Dornbusch, Rudiger, “Comment” on Michael Bordo, “The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview” in Michael Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds., A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System, University of Chicago Press, 1993. Eichengreen Barry, "Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes, in Understanding Interdependence: The Macroeconomics of the Open Economy, Peter Kenen Ed Princeton University Press 1995, pp.3 - 34. Giovannini, Alberto, “How Do Fixed-Exchange-Rate Regimes Work? Evidence from the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and the EMS,” in Marcus Miller, Barry Eichengreen, and Richard Portes, eds., Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, New York, Academic Press, 1989, pp. 13-41. Helpman Elhanan, “An Exploration of the Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes,” Journal of Political Economy, 89, 1981, pp.865-890. Kindelberger, Charles P., “Balance of Payments Deficits and the International Market for Liquidity,” Princeton Essays in International Finance, no. 46 (May, 1965), Princeton University International Finance Section. McKinnon, Ronald and Schnobl, Gunther, “The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin,” mimeo January 2003. Rueff, Jacques and Fred Hirsch, “The Role and Rule of Gold: An Argument,” Princeton Essays in International Finance, no 47 (June, 1965), Princeton University International Finance Section.
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