Same-sex marriage in China? 1319 single people and with more married couples caring for each other in old age and illness,the state would spend less on social services.27 An economic windfall might also result from more wedding ceremonies:legalised same-sex marriage in California,for instance,was estimated to inject over $370 million into the state's faltering economy.28 Upon the passage of proposition eight in California,which rescinded the right for same-sex couples to marry,analysts observed that American states with legal same-sex marriage would enjoy the economic spoils from couples that might have otherwise married in California.29 Economic arguments are tied to similar claims that same-sex marriage would improve public health.Marriage can afford stability,and improve physical and mental health of those who enter into them.30 Monogamous 'pairing off can diminish promiscuity,curtail the spread of venereal diseases,thereby cutting government health care costs.31 The political benefits of same-sex marriage outlined above are a necessary but not sufficient condition for policy promulgation.Before concluding that the benefits of same-sex marriage could compel the state to legalise it,potential costs must also be explored.Next,I explore three key counter-arguments to same-sex marriage in China:first,because of China's traditional culture the government is unlikely to sanction non-traditional familial arrangements;second,because China is an authoritarian state,it is unlikely to support a progressive policy like same-sex marriage;and third,the government does not want to engage in human rights discussions for fear that it might elicit even more criticism. 'China's cultural traditions get in the way' Culture has been cited as a key explanatory variable in understanding same-sex marriage policy promulgation around the world.The strength or weakness of institutionalised religion,in particular,is a key predictor of same-sex marriage. Kollman finds that in secular societies of Western Europe,same-sex marriage is not seen as a cultural threat;where 'religiousity'is low,same-sex marriage can be more easily framed as a human rights issue and successfully implemented.32 By extending these insights to China,which currently lacks the influential religious institutions that exist in other countries,same-sex marriage should hold promise;cultural costs, defined in this way,should not prove too high.However,China could still be properly characterised as traditional irrespective of its lack of religion.33 Rather than dismiss this counter-argument so quickly,China's Confucian tradition can be examined as a proxy for religion. 27 Christina Muller,'An Economic Analysis of Same-Sex Marriage',unpublished thesis(Universidad Compultense Madrid,2001),p.34. 28 Alana Semuels,'Gay Marriage a Gift to California's Economy'.Los Angeles Times(2 June 2008). 29 Reuters (26 November 2008). 30 Michael King and Annie Bartlett,What Same Sex Civil Partnerships May Mean for Health', Journal of Epidemiology Community Health,60:3 (2006).pp.188-91. 3 Muller,'Economic',p.36. 32 Kollman,'Same-sex'p.351.Kollman uses a country's average annual church attendance as a measure of 'religiousity'. aIn recent years.China has seen an increase in the number of self-identified Buddhists in the country: we could,therefore,just as easily explore other Buddhist countries to examine the cultural impediments to same-sex marriage or homosexuality.However,the results would likely be the same for Thailand,one of the most Buddhist countries in south-east Asia.has one of the most dynamic gay communities on the continent.single people and with more married couples caring for each other in old age and illness, the state would spend less on social services.27 An economic windfall might also result from more wedding ceremonies: legalised same-sex marriage in California, for instance, was estimated to inject over $370 million into the state’s faltering economy.28 Upon the passage of proposition eight in California, which rescinded the right for same-sex couples to marry, analysts observed that American states with legal same-sex marriage would enjoy the economic spoils from couples that might have otherwise married in California.29 Economic arguments are tied to similar claims that same-sex marriage would improve public health. Marriage can afford stability, and improve physical and mental health of those who enter into them.30 Monogamous ‘pairing off’ can diminish promiscuity, curtail the spread of venereal diseases, thereby cutting government health care costs.31 The political benefits of same-sex marriage outlined above are a necessary but not sufficient condition for policy promulgation. Before concluding that the benefits of same-sex marriage could compel the state to legalise it, potential costs must also be explored. Next, I explore three key counter-arguments to same-sex marriage in China: first, because of China’s traditional culture the government is unlikely to sanction non-traditional familial arrangements; second, because China is an authoritarian state, it is unlikely to support a progressive policy like same-sex marriage; and third, the government does not want to engage in human rights discussions for fear that it might elicit even more criticism. ‘China’s cultural traditions get in the way’ Culture has been cited as a key explanatory variable in understanding same-sex marriage policy promulgation around the world. The strength or weakness of institutionalised religion, in particular, is a key predictor of same-sex marriage. Kollman finds that in secular societies of Western Europe, same-sex marriage is not seen as a cultural threat; where ‘religiousity’ is low, same-sex marriage can be more easily framed as a human rights issue and successfully implemented.32 By extending these insights to China, which currently lacks the influential religious institutions that exist in other countries, same-sex marriage should hold promise; cultural costs, defined in this way, should not prove too high. However, China could still be properly characterised as traditional irrespective of its lack of religion.33 Rather than dismiss this counter-argument so quickly, China’s Confucian tradition can be examined as a proxy for religion. 27 Christina Muller, ‘An Economic Analysis of Same-Sex Marriage’, unpublished thesis (Universidad Compultense Madrid, 2001), p. 34. 28 Alana Semuels, ‘Gay Marriage a Gift to California‘s Economy’, Los Angeles Times (2 June 2008). 29 Reuters (26 November 2008). 30 Michael King and Annie Bartlett, ‘What Same Sex Civil Partnerships May Mean for Health’, Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 60:3 (2006), pp. 188–91. 31 Muller, ‘Economic’, p. 36. 32 Kollman, ‘Same-sex’, p. 351. Kollman uses a country‘s average annual church attendance as a measure of ‘religiousity’. 33 In recent years, China has seen an increase in the number of self-identified Buddhists in the country; we could, therefore, just as easily explore other Buddhist countries to examine the cultural impediments to same-sex marriage or homosexuality. However, the results would likely be the same for Thailand, one of the most Buddhist countries in south-east Asia, has one of the most dynamic gay communities on the continent. Same-sex marriage in China? 1319