东亚股市与汇市的下跌 东亚股市与汇市的下跌 The Fall in East Asian Stock Prices and Currencies The Fall in East Asian Stock Prices and Currencies January 1997 to April 1998 January 1997 to April 1998 中国 向前看 China Looking ahead (in percent) 195319771978-2001200220032004 ◆是什么决定扩张与衰退? What determines expansions and recessions? Output growth rate 6.5 9.6 8.39.3 ◆股市、汇市与经济活动是如何相互影响 Unemployment rate NA 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.2 What are the interactions between the stock market, foreign exchange market, and economic activity? 向前看 Looking Ahead ◆为什么90年代的通货膨胀会如此之低? Why is inflation so much lower in the 1990s? ◆失业率能够如此之低吗? Can the unemployment rate be too low? ◆失业率是如何形成的? What c unemployment? ◆为什么增长率各不相同? Why do growth rates differ?7 东亚股市与汇市的下跌 The Fall in East Asian Stock Prices and Currencies, January 1997 to April 1998 东亚股市与汇市的下跌 The Fall in East Asian Stock Prices and Currencies, January 1997 to April 1998 中 国 China (in percent) 1953-1977 1978-2001 2002 2003 2004 Output growth rate 6.5 9.6 8.3 9.3 9.5 Unemployment rate NA 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.2 Inflation rate 1.0 7.0 -0.8 1.2 3.9 向前看 Looking Ahead ‹是什么决定扩张与衰退？ What determines expansions and recessions? ‹股市、汇市与经济活动是如何相互影响 的？ What are the interactions between the stock market, foreign exchange market, and economic activity? 向前看 Looking Ahead ‹为什么90年代的通货膨胀会如此之低？ Why is inflation so much lower in the 1990s? ‹失业率能够如此之低吗？ Can the unemployment rate be too low? ‹失业率是如何形成的？ What causes unemployment? ‹为什么增长率各不相同？ Why do growth rates differ?