张雷等:中国碳排放区域格局变化与减排途径分析 217 2010年2月 An Investigation on Spatial Changing Pattern of co2 emissions in China ZHANG Lei, HUANG Yuanxi, LI Yanmei, CHENG Xiadi ga (1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, Chi 2. Institute of Recycle Economy, Beiing Unirersity of Technology, Beiying 100124, China) Abstract: As one of the world largest emitters of greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions, China has been facing a great challenge of CO2 emissions on aspects of an increasing quantity and a grea change in spatial patterns as well. The authors were intent to place emphasis on regional changing patterns of CO2 emissions in the present work. The spatial changing pattern at the regional level in East China suggested that it has been accounting for the largest portion of national CO2 emissions since the founding of the Peoples Republic of China whereas the central part of China generally showed a slight decreasing trend in CO2 emissions. The western China just accounts for a small portion of the total of the national CO2 emissions, with basically showing an increasing trend. It was also found that at the provincial level, the difference in regional CO2 emissions has progressively increased since 1953. In order to reveal the spatial changing pattern of CO2 emission at both regional and provincial levels, the authors made use of two evaluation models: the industrial-energy interconnection model and the energy-CO2 emissions interconnection model. The findings are helpful for policy making on Chinas CO emissions. First, it was suggested that diversified economic structure largely determined the regional economic development as well the changing pattern of regional CO2 emissions. For instance, the number of over COz emissions at the provincial level increased from zero to two during the period between 1980 and 2005 since local economic development dominated by the manufacturing industry in coastal areas was growing rapidly. Second, the more diversified economic structure a region exhibited, the slower increasing rate in energy use. The total energy consumption of East China between 1991 and 2005, for example, showed an annual increase of 5.30%, when its economic structure diversified values (ESD) increased from 12.2 to 38.9, or reaching a 8.02% increase per year. Finally, it was implied that a drastic structural change in energy use in China makes it quite difficult for any region itself to reduce CO2 emissions in the short-term. To sum up, China would have a long way to go to achieve a tolerable target of low carbon economy if it still remained traditional energy consumption atterns Key words: CO2 emissions; Energy use; Economic structural change; Spatial changing pattern C1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreservedhttp://wwwchutphoou.resci.cn2010年2月 张 雷等：中国碳排放区域格局变化与减排途径分析 http://www.resci.cn An Investigation on Spatial Changing Pattern of CO2 Emissions in China ZHANG Lei1 ，HUANG Yuanxi1 ，LI Yanmei2 ，CHENG Xiaoling1 (1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China； 2. Institute of Recycle Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China) Abstract: As one of the world largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, China has been facing a great challenge of CO2 emissions on aspects of an increasing quantity and a great change in spatial patterns as well. The authors were intent to place emphasis on regional changing patterns of CO2 emissions in the present work. The spatial changing pattern at the regional level in East China suggested that it has been accounting for the largest portion of national CO2 emissions since the founding of the People’s Republic of China whereas the central part of China generally showed a slight decreasing trend in CO2 emissions. The western China just accounts for a small portion of the total of the national CO2 emissions, with basically showing an increasing trend. It was also found that at the provincial level, the difference in regional CO2 emissions has progressively increased since 1953. In order to reveal the spatial changing pattern of CO2 emissions at both regional and provincial levels, the authors made use of two evaluation models: the industrial-energy interconnection model and the energy- CO2 emissions interconnection model. The findings are helpful for policy making on China’s CO2 emissions. First, it was suggested that a diversified economic structure largely determined the regional economic development as well as the changing pattern of regional CO2 emissions. For instance, the number of over CO2 emissions at the provincial level increased from zero to two during the period between 1980 and 2005 since local economic development dominated by the manufacturing industry in coastal areas was growing rapidly. Second, the more diversified economic structure a region exhibited, the slower increasing rate in energy use. The total energy consumption of East China between 1991 and 2005, for example, showed an annual increase of 5.30%, when its economic structure diversified values (ESD) increased from 12.2 to 38.9, or reaching a 8.02% increase per year. Finally, it was implied that a drastic structural change in energy use in China makes it quite difficult for any region itself to reduce CO2 emissions in the short-term. To sum up, China would have a long way to go to achieve a tolerable target of low carbon economy if it still remained traditional energy consumption patterns. Key words: CO2 emissions; Energy use; Economic structural change; Spatial changing pattern 217