Characteristics of Forecasts Forecasts are always wrong! o Expected value Error/variability from the expected value Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts Mature products with stable demand are easier to forecast than seasonal goods or "fashion"items with short product-life SEIEE AU406 Supply Chain Management 3Characteristics of Forecasts  Forecasts are always wrong! ◦ Expected value ◦ Error/variability from the expected value  Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts  Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts  Mature products with stable demand are easier to forecast than seasonal goods or “fashion” items with short product-life SEIEE AU406 Supply Chain Management 3