collected, shared, and analyzed far more extensively and with far greater sophistication that was the case even ten years ago. As foresight replaces hindsight, reacting to one hopes, will be fewer tragedies from which we must lean standing risk. The result tragedies will be a smaller component of the process of under emarks How does it all add up? Perhaps the pessimists will prove correct, and the greatest era in aviation safety has come to an end. But the fact remains that, in the First World irlines, aircraft manufacturers, and regulatory agencies have shown an uncanny ability to keep getting better. One might therefore not be too hasty to bet against them. If the Golden Age of air safety is over, it might be because we are about to enter a Platinum Ag Acknowledgments In connection with the Blackett Lecture, I am grateful to Mike Pidd for help ncouragement and not least, the invitation itself. I am also grateful to the Operational Research Society, the Royal Aeronautical Society, and British Airways for great effort careful reading o creating a splendid occasion. And I thank editor John Ranyard for his d this manuscript and his various suggestions References Perspectives about Airline Safety "Flight Safety Digest, April 2000 Provide (1) Barnett, A and A Wang(2000),"Passenger-mortality Risk Estimates (2) Barnett, A and M.K. Higgins(1989), Airline Safety: The Last Decade, Management Science, November 1989 (3 Oster, C, J. Strong, and C. Zorn(1992), Why Airplanes Crash: Aviation Safety in a Changing World, Oxford University Press (4) Newsweek(1999),The Inside Story of Flight 990, November 21, 1999(cover10 collected, shared, and analyzed far more extensively and with far greater sophistication that was the case even ten years ago. As foresight replaces hindsight, reacting to tragedies will be a smaller component of the process of understanding risk. The result, one hopes, will be fewer tragedies from which we must learn. Final Remarks How does it all add up? Perhaps the pessimists will prove correct, and the greatest era in aviation safety has come to an end. But the fact remains that, in the First World, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and regulatory agencies have shown an uncanny ability to keep getting better. One might therefore not be too hasty to bet against them. If the Golden Age of air safety is over, it might be because we are about to enter a Platinum Age. Acknowledgments In connection with the Blackett Lecture, I am grateful to Mike Pidd for help, encouragement and, not least, the invitation itself. I am also grateful to the Operational Research Society, the Royal Aeronautical Society, and British Airways for great effort and generosity in creating a splendid occasion. And I thank editor John Ranyard for his careful reading of this manuscript and his various suggestions. References (1) Barnett, A. and A. Wang (2000), “Passenger-mortality Risk Estimates Provide Perspectives about Airline Safety,” Flight Safety Digest, April 2000 (2) Barnett, A. and M.K. Higgins (1989), “Airline Safety: The Last Decade,” Management Science, November 1989 (3) Oster, C., J. Strong, and C. Zorn (1992), Why Airplanes Crash: Aviation Safety in a Changing World, Oxford University Press (4) Newsweek (1999),“The Inside Story of Flight 990,” November 21,1999 (cover story, many correspondents)