312 THE RICH,RICHER AND THE POOR,POORER immigrants,both legal and illegal,for whom in-the impact of such competition. person services will comprise the most accessible In two respects,demographics will work in favor jobs.It is estimated that between the mid-1980s and of in-person servers,buoying their collective boat the end of the century,about a quarter of all workers slightly.First,as has been noted,the rate of growth entering the American labor force will be immi-of the American work force is slowing.In particular, grants (Federal Immigration and Naturalization the number of younger workers is shrinking. Service 1986-7). Between 1985 and 1995,the number of eighteen-to Perhaps the fiercest competition that in-person twenty-four-year-olds will have declined by 17.5 per servers face comes from labor-saving machinery cent.Thus,employers will have more incentive to (much of it invented,designed,fabricated,or hire and train in-person servers whom they might assembled in other nations,of course).Automated previously have avoided.But this demographic tellers,computerized cashiers,automatic car relief from the competitive pressures will be only washes,robotized vending machines,self-service temporary.The cumulative procreative energies of gasoline pumps,and all similar gadgets substitute the postwar baby-boomers(born between 1946 and for the human beings that customers once 1964)will result in a new surge of workers by 2010 encountered.Even telephone operators are fast or thereabouts (Johnson,Packer et al.,1987).And disappearing,as electronic sensors and voice simu-immigration-both legal and illegal-shows every lators become capable of carrying on conversations sign of increasing in years to come. that are reasonably intelligent,and always polite.Next,by the second decade of the twenty-first Retail sales workers-among the largest groups of century,the number of Americans aged sixty-five in-person servers-are similarly imperiled.Through and over will be rising precipitously,as the baby- personal computers linked to television screens,boomers reach retirement age and live longer. tomorrow's consumers will be able to buy furniture,Their life expectancies will lengthen not just appliances,and all sorts of electronic toys from because fewer of them will have smoked their way their living rooms-examining the merch-to their graves and more will have eaten better than andise from all angles,selecting whatever their parents,but also because they will receive all color,size,special features,and price seem most sorts of expensive drugs and therapies designed to appealing,and then transmitting the order keep them alive-barely.By 2035,twice as many instantly to warehouses from which the selections Americans will be elderly as in 1988,and the will be shipped directly to their homes.So,too,number of octogenarians is expected to triple. with financial transactions,airline and hotel As these decaying baby-boomers ingest all the reservations,rental car agreements,and similar chemicals and receive all the treatments,they will contracts,which will be executed between need a great deal of personal attention.Millions of consumers in their homes and computer banks deteriorating bodies will require nurses,nursing- somewhere else on the globe(Deutsch 1989). home operators,hospital administrators,orderlies, Advanced economies like the United States will home-care providers,hospice aides,and techni- continue to generate sizable numbers of new in-cians to operate and maintain all the expensive person service jobs,of course,the automation of machinery that will monitor and temporarily stave older ones notwithstanding.For every bank teller off final disintegration.There might even be a who loses her job to an automated teller,three new booming market for euthanasia specialists.In- jobs open for aerobics instructors.Human beings,it person servers catering to the old and ailing will be seems,have an almost insatiable desire for personal in strong demand.4 attention.But the intense competition nevertheless One small problem:The decaying baby-boomers ensures that the wages of in-person servers will will not have enough money to pay for these ser- remain relatively low.In-person servers-working vices.They will have used up their personal savings on their own,or else dispersed widely amid many years before.Their Social Security payments will, small establishments,filling all sorts of personal-of course,have been used by the government to care niches-cannot readily organize themselves into labor unions or create powerful lobbies to limit312 THE RICH, RICHER AND THE POOR, POORER immigrants, both legal and illegal, for whom in￾person services will comprise the most accessible jobs. It is estimated that between the mid­1980s and the end of the century, about a quarter of all workers entering the American labor force will be immi­ grants (Federal Immigration and Naturalization Service 1986­7). Perhaps the fiercest competition that in­person servers face comes from labor­saving machinery (much of it invented, designed, fabricated, or assembled in other nations, of course). Automated tellers, computerized cashiers, automatic car washes, robotized vending machines, self­service gasoline pumps, and all similar gadgets substitute for the human beings that customers once encountered. Even telephone operators are fast disappearing, as electronic sensors and voice simu￾lators become capable of carrying on conversations that are reasonably intelligent, and always polite. Retail sales workers—among the largest groups of in­person servers—are similarly imperiled. Through personal computers linked to television screens, tomorrow's consumers will be able to buy furniture, appliances, and all sorts of electronic toys from their living rooms—examining the merch­ andise from all angles, selecting whatever color, size, special features, and price seem most appealing, and then transmitting the order instantly to warehouses from which the selections will be shipped directly to their homes. So, too, with financial transactions, airline and hotel reservations, rental car agreements, and similar contracts, which will be executed between consumers in their homes and computer banks somewhere else on the globe (Deutsch 1989). Advanced economies like the United States will continue to generate sizable numbers of new in￾person service jobs, of course, the automation of older ones notwithstanding. For every bank teller who loses her job to an automated teller, three new jobs open for aerobics instructors. Human beings, it seems, have an almost insatiable desire for personal attention. But the intense competition nevertheless ensures that the wages of in­person servers will remain relatively low. In­person servers—working on their own, or else dispersed widely amid many small establishments, filling all sorts of personal­ care niches—cannot readily organize themselves into labor unions or create powerful lobbies to limit the impact of such competition. In two respects, demographics will work in favor of in­person servers, buoying their collective boat slightly. First, as has been noted, the rate of growth of the American work force is slowing. In particular, the number of younger workers is shrinking. Between 1985 and 1995, the number of eighteen­ to twenty­four­year­olds will have declined by 17.5 per cent. Thus, employers will have more incentive to hire and train in­person servers whom they might previously have avoided. But this demographic relief from the competitive pressures will be only temporary. The cumulative procreative energies of the postwar baby­boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) will result in a new surge of workers by 2010 or thereabouts (Johnson, Packer et al., 1987). And immigration—both legal and illegal—shows every sign of increasing in years to come. Next, by the second decade of the twenty­first century, the number of Americans aged sixty­five and over will be rising precipitously, as the baby­ boomers reach retirement age and live longer. Their life expectancies will lengthen not just because fewer of them will have smoked their way to their graves and more will have eaten better than their parents, but also because they will receive all sorts of expensive drugs and therapies designed to keep them alive—barely. By 2035, twice as many Americans will be elderly as in 1988, and the number of octogenarians is expected to triple. As these decaying baby­boomers ingest all the chemicals and receive all the treatments, they will need a great deal of personal attention. Millions of deteriorating bodies will require nurses, nursing­ home operators, hospital administrators, orderlies, home­care providers, hospice aides, and techni­ cians to operate and maintain all the expensive machinery that will monitor and temporarily stave off final disintegration. There might even be a booming market for euthanasia specialists. In­ person servers catering to the old and ailing will be in strong demand.4 One small problem: The decaying baby­boomers will not have enough money to pay for these ser­ vices. They will have used up their personal savings years before. Their Social Security payments will, of course, have been used by the government to