l18 农业工程学报 学思路,从短时期、大空间尺度上重点测算了土地资产政策因7]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示凹·自然资源 子的影响能力,并未深入研究其小尺度上的内在机制。下一步 学报,1999,14(4):329-333. 研究可以从如下方面着手:1)加大时间序列研究:2)加强不李谢辉,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,任福文.基于分形理论的干早区绿洲 同尺度间的对比研究:3)引入较小尺度上(如省级)耕地分布 耕地动态变化及驱动力研究[农业工程学报,2007,23(2)65-70 I9]郑海霞,童菊儿,徐扬.发达地区耕地资源的时空变化及其驱动力 状态演化的空间信息,以及自然特征(如气候、地形、土壤 实证研究[.农业工程学报,2007,23(4):75-78 水资源、作物类型等属性因子),希望能通过深入研究耕地数量口10)赵水华,何兴元,胡远满,等.岷江上游汶川县耕地变化及驱动力研 变化的内在驱动机制,为中国的耕地保护实践提供科学参考。 究叮。农业工程学报,2006,22(2):94-97 龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析门地 理学报,2001,56(4):417-425 [12]谭少华,倪绍样.区域土地利用变化驱动力的成因分析凹地理与地 [1Fao.TheFaoStatisticalYearbooksforLandUse[eb/ol].http 理信息科学,2005,21(3):47-50 //www.fao.org/statistics/yearbook/voli1/siteen.asp?page=resources, [13] Skinner M W, Kuhn R Gi Joseph A E. Agricultural land protection in 2007-08-01 2]李元.中国土地资源M]北京:中国大地出版社,2000211-213 China: a case study of local govemance in Zhejiang Province[J]. Land Use Policy,2001,18:329-340 3] Lin GC S, Ho S PS. China's land and land-use change: insights from the 1996 land survey[J]. Land Use Policy, 2003, 20: 87-107 14朱道林,强真,毕继业.中国农地征转用的价格增值分析[中国 土地科学,2006,20(4):24-27. H国土资源部信息中心中国国土资源安全状况分析报告(200004)15唐健。我国耕地保护制度与政策研究M,北京:中国社会科学出 M]北京:中国土地出版社,2005:153-15 版社,2006:67 [5] Yang H. Land conservation campaign in China: integrated management, [16] Olper A. Land inequality, governmental ideology and agricultural local participation and food supply option[J]. Geoforum, 2004, 35, 507 protectionJ) Food Policy, 2007. 32: 67-83 6]邓祥征,战金艳.中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化驱动力的尺度袭t7 Older A. Determinants of agricultural protection: the role of democracy and institutional setting]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2001 应分析[.地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(3):64-6 52(2):75-92 Land asset and policy factors for acreage changes of cultivated land in China based on econometric model Li Wei, Hao Jinmin Feng Xie mi (1. College of Resources and Emvironmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Bejing 100193, China 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China; 3. Graduate Universiry of chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China, of Agricultural Resources and Regional Pla 5. Information Centre, Ministry of land and Resources P. R C, Beijing 100812, China) Abstract: Cultivated land protection is one of the key difficulties in land management, and analysis on factors of cultivated land variation in China has significant meanings for development. Based on hypothesis that other factors are constant, conceptual model was firstly onstructed for land use with integration of land assets, land use policies and land resources, then factors for variations of cultivated land in 1998-2002 were analyzed using econometric method on both national and regional scale, especially for the asset-political factors. The results show that, on a national scale, enhancement of land use policies, decrease of multiples of land value increment, increase of cultivated land inputs are helpful for cultivated land protection; increase of fertilizer leads to the decline of cultivated land; ratio of gross agricultural output yields of crop and size of cultivated land per rural household do not explain the variations of cultivated land significantly. On regional scale, intensification of land use policies, promotion of supplement level for rural residents losing cultivated land and improvement of cultivated land input are advantageous for cultivated land protection. Specifically, reducing ratio of gross agricultural output in East China, and decreasing areas of irrigated land in West China, could be beneficial for maintenance of cultivated land. This paper concluded that integration of land resources-land assets-land use policies could better explain the variation of cultivated land protection, and then could take priorities to improve cultivated land protection in China based on the research results Key words: land use conceptual model; land assets; land use policies; cultivated land; econometric model o1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicpUblishingHouse.Allrightsreservedhttp://www.cnki.net118 农业工程学报 2008 年 学思路，从短时期、大空间尺度上重点测算了土地资产-政策因 子的影响能力，并未深入研究其小尺度上的内在机制。下一步 研究可以从如下方面着手：1）加大时间序列研究；2）加强不 同尺度间的对比研究；3）引入较小尺度上（如省级）耕地分布 状态演化的空间信息，以及自然特征（如气候、地形、土壤、 水资源、作物类型等属性因子），希望能通过深入研究耕地数量 变化的内在驱动机制，为中国的耕地保护实践提供科学参考。 [参 考 文 献] [1] FAO. The FAO Statistical Yearbooks for Land Use[EB/OL]. http: //www.fao.org/statistics/yearbook/vol_1_1/site_en.asp?page=resources, 2007-08-01． [2] 李 元．中国土地资源[M]．北京：中国大地出版社，2000：211－213． [3] Lin G C S, Ho S P S. China’s land resources and land-use change: insights from the 1996 land survey[J]. Land Use Policy，2003，20：87－107． [4] 国土资源部信息中心．中国国土资源安全状况分析报告（2003-2004） [M]．北京：中国土地出版社，2005：153－155． [5] Yang H. Land conservation campaign in China: integrated management, local participation and food supply option[J]. Geoforum，2004，35，507 －518． [6] 邓祥征，战金艳．中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化驱动力的尺度效 应分析[J]．地理与地理信息科学，2004，20(3)：64－68． [7] 李秀彬．中国近 20 年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J]．自然资源 学报，1999，14(4)：329－333． [8] 李谢辉，塔西甫拉提·特依拜，任福文．基于分形理论的干旱区绿洲 耕地动态变化及驱动力研究[J]．农业工程学报，2007，23(2)：65－70． [9] 郑海霞，童菊儿，徐 扬．发达地区耕地资源的时空变化及其驱动力 实证研究[J]．农业工程学报，2007，23(4)：75－78． [10] 赵永华，何兴元，胡远满，等．岷江上游汶川县耕地变化及驱动力研 究[J]．农业工程学报，2006，22(2)：94－97． [11] 龙花楼，李秀彬．长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J]．地 理学报，2001，56(4)：417－425． [12] 谭少华，倪绍祥．区域土地利用变化驱动力的成因分析[J]．地理与地 理信息科学，2005，21(3)：47－50． [13] Skinner M W, Kuhn R G, Joseph A E. Agricultural land protection in China: a case study of local governance in Zhejiang Province[J]. Land Use Policy，2001，18：329－340． [14] 朱道林，强 真，毕继业．中国农地征转用的价格增值分析[J]．中国 土地科学，2006，20(4)：24－27． [15] 唐 健．我国耕地保护制度与政策研究[M]．北京：中国社会科学出 版社，2006：67－72． [16] Olper A. Land inequality, governmental ideology and agricultural protection[J]. Food Policy，2007，32：67－83． [17] Olper A. Determinants of agricultural protection: the role of democracy and institutional setting[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics，2001， 52(2)：75－92． Land asset and policy factors for acreage changes of cultivated land in China based on econometric model Li Wei1 , Hao Jinmin1※, Feng Tingting2,3, Zhang Jiexia4 , Xie Min5 (1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China; 3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Beijing 100081, China; 5. Information Centre, Ministry of Land and Resources P. R. C., Beijing 100812, China) Abstract: Cultivated land protection is one of the key difficulties in land management, and analysis on factors of cultivated land variation in China has significant meanings for development. Based on hypothesis that other factors are constant, conceptual model was firstly constructed for land use with integration of land assets, land use policies and land resources, then factors for variations of cultivated land in 1998-2002 were analyzed using econometric method on both national and regional scale, especially for the asset-political factors. The results show that, on a national scale, enhancement of land use policies, decrease of multiples of land value increment, increase of cultivated land inputs are helpful for cultivated land protection; increase of fertilizer leads to the decline of cultivated land; ratio of gross agricultural output, yields of crop and size of cultivated land per rural household do not explain the variations of cultivated land significantly. On regional scale, intensification of land use policies, promotion of supplement level for rural residents losing cultivated land and improvement of cultivated land input are advantageous for cultivated land protection. Specifically, reducing ratio of gross agricultural output in East China, and decreasing areas of irrigated land in West China, could be beneficial for maintenance of cultivated land. This paper concluded that integration of land resources-land assets-land use policies could better explain the variation of cultivated land protection, and then could take priorities to improve cultivated land protection in China based on the research results. Key words: land use conceptual model; land assets; land use policies; cultivated land; econometric model