正在加载图片...
Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark W. Rosegrant 743 Variation in demand projections is similar. Several projections of demand growth are in the range of 1.0%0-1.7% per year, but demand growth rates well in excess of 2% are projected by Garnaut and Ma and hen and Buckwell. 5 The long-term projections from the Economic Re search Service predict much higher cereal imports; a number of the alter native scenarios forecast food balance shortfalls of 100 MMT. 6 Given the significant variation in both supply and demand projections, it is not surprising that projected net imports differ widely. The largest import projections result from highly pessimistic supply projections(Brown Carter and Zhong) and high demand projections( Garnaut and Ma; the Economic Research Service). 7 Projections by commodity are much less common. S. Fan, G. cra mer, and E. Wailes predict that rice exports will continue, mainly because of their assumption that demand elasticities will continue to be positive and rice production growth will continue at current levels. Unpublished projections by Fan and M. Agcaoili and recent long-range projections by the Economic Research Service forecast rising imports for wheat. Their estimates, however do not take into consideration some of the structural changes facing Chinas food economy. The most difficult part of evaluating current projections results that the sources of the parameters of the forecasting models, and forces behind the changes in important state variables(e.g, population and in- come growth) are not transparent. The parameters on which all of these grain projections are based (except for Carter and Zhong; and Fan, Cramer, and Wailes) are either partly or wholly synthetic. There is also little scope for assessing the effect of policy variables. With the excep- tion of the Economic Research Service and Fan and Agcaoili models, no other model can be used to systematically assess the effect of govern- mental policy. Fundamental forces in the economy, such as urbanization and market development, are ignored. Given the rapid structural change in Chinas economy-in-transition and the importance of policy in China, the omission of such important variables reduces the robustness of dictions from currently available models IV. Structural Change and Government Intervention in Chinas agriculture As Chinas economy continues to change and grow, one of the main uestions facing policy makers is how future patterns of utilization can e met most effectively. China is a country in rapid transition from a socialist system to one in which an increasing proportion of its goods and services, including food, are allocated by market forces. 2 It also is a country that is rapidly developing. There are many forces arising from these development and transition processes that will affect China's food economy. Any attempt to accurately forecast future supply and demand trends of food must account for these major economic forces Copyright 1999 All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved
<<向上翻页向下翻页>>
©2008-现在 cucdc.com 高等教育资讯网 版权所有