复旦大学：《发展经济学》阅读材料与文献_China's Food Economy to the Twenty-first Century：Supply, Demand, and Trade

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China's Food Economy to the Twenty-first Century: Supply, Demand, and Trade* Jikun Huang Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Scott Rozelle University of California, Davis Mark W.Rosegrant International Food Policy Research Institute . Introduction China's emergence as the world's fastest growing economy has both raised hopes that East Asia's giant can join the ranks of modernizing na- tions and fueled concerns that its rapid transition will upset the fragile equilibrium of global markets and institutions. The nexus of China's growth, the management of its food economy, and its potential effect on world agricultural product markets compellingly illustrates the delicate balance facing policy makers. Directed properly, China's growth pro- vides an unprecedented opportunity for achieving major gains in its foo security, poverty reduction, and nutritional improvement. Without suit- able policies, China's development may wreak havoc on sectors of its own society as well as on the rest of the world. Unfortunately, China's leadership and the international community have a limited scope for understanding future trends, evaluating socio- economic trade-offs, and sorting through policy options. Current analyti- cal tools are quite simple, having almost no structural basis and provid- ing little policy guidance. Predictions have been notoriously sensitive to fundamental assumptions, creating such a wide range of forecasts that policy makers have not become enlightene but instead have felt de- fenseless when confronted with assertions on future supply, demand, and trade balances. The shallowness of understandi was exposed by the outrageous pronouncements by L. Brown when he projected, without any research-based underpinnings, massive food shortfalls in China by 1999 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. 0013-0079/99/4704-0005502.00 Copyright 1999. All rights reserved

738 Economic Development and ral Change 2030. The ensuing panic in China's agricultural hierarchy, however, could not be suppressed since no research team inside or outside of China could respond authoritatively Predictive frameworks are not easy to construct. China is a country experiencing rapid economic and social transformation. Industrialization proceeds at one of the fastest rates in the world. These forces are causin wrenching changes: market development, urbanization, environmental degradation, and budgetary stress. These factors should be expected to have as great, if not greater, an effect on supply and demand as tradi- tional determinants such as income growth and price movements. Deal ing with the challenges of managing their food sector in such a rapidly changing environment requires that Chinas leaders have a clear under- standing of the structure of the economy, especially how supply, de- mand, and trade are affected by any number of key economic, technolog cal and social forces The goal of this article is to help establish a more comprehensive, transparent, and empirically sound basis for assessing the future growth of Chinas food supply and demand balances. We hope this article will shed light on the debate on China,s future grain balance, identify the kinds of structural transformations and policy decisions that might cause large grain deficits, and show the circumstances under which China might maintain its current status as nearly self-sufficient To meet this goal, this article first examines Chinas current grain balance sheet and history of grain imports and then reviews previous ef- forts to project Chinas growth of grain supply, demand, and trade. Our own assessment of the future grain economy begins by investigating a series of factors, beyond income and prices, that may affect grain de- mand and supply. We develop a supply-and-demand projections model which includes a series of important structural factors and policy vari S, including urbanization and market development on the demand side and technology, agricultural investment, environmental trends, and institutional innovations on the supply side. After reviewing the baseline assumptions, we present aseline projections and ex amine alternative scenarios using different rates of growth in income prices, wages, population, and investment in research and irrigation Although we limit our analysis to grain, some of the proje may be surprising. Even in this fairly homogeneous sector of China's food economy, socioeconomic forces act very differently on rice, wheat, and maize, the studys three major crops. Not only do we demonstrate that migration, technological change, income growth, and other trends have important effects on the future supply and demand of the commodi ties, but under a completely reasonable set of assumptions, we also show how there could be a complete reversal in historic global trade patterns for all three grains. Whereas since 1980 China has been a net exporter of rice and maize and the worlds largest importer of wheat, under our Copyright 1999 All rights reserved

Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant baseline scenario, we show that China could import rice and maize in the twenty-first century and satisfy its own demand for wheat IL. Annual Grain Production and Utilization in China Total grain production (in trade weight) rose to 403 million metric tons (MMT) in 1993-95(table 1). 2 After a decline of 2 MMT in stocks (which increases current grain supply) and imports of 2 MMT of grain, Chinas total annual supply of grain during this period was 407 MMT. This supply was used to meet a number of needs: seed, animal feed,non- food manufacturing, and direct consumption for food. Grain used for di rect food consumption took up the greatest part of total supply, about 65% in 1993-95. Animal feed accounted for 23% of utilization on a per capita basis, the average resident in China consumed 222 kilograms grain per year, a level quite high even in comparison to the rest of East Asia. In contrast, meat and fish consumption was relatively low The feed supply helped provide the average resident with about 30 kilo grams of meat, poultry, and fish product. The aggregation of grain balances, however, disguises different pat terms of rice, wheat, and maize utilization in terms of the use of grain for feed and food and rural-urban dietary habits(table 1, rows 2-5). China's residents consume most of the nation s rice(85%)and wheat(91%)di rectly as food grain. The majority (84%)of Chinas maize is used as feed or the livestock sector Even general consumption aggregates vary by sector of the econ- omy. Urbanites eat far less rice(68 kilograms)and more meat and poul grams,respectively;see table 1, rows 7-9). Wheat is more cope try (34 kilograms) than do their rural counterparts(103 and 20 kild Unlike the rest of East and Southeast Asia, China has a large wheat econ omy, and its per capita rural consumption of wheat exceeds urban intake Although there are sharp regional variations, the average rural resident consumes 90 kilograms per year of wheat versus only 72 kilograms per person for those in cities and towns. Commodity and sectoral differences in demand patterns become important in deriving future balances, since tion of consumer groups, affect each consumer group differentl posi- economic forces and structural changes, as well as the size and cor The waxing and waning of supply and demand in the past several decades has caused imports and exports to rise and fall(table 2).When China began its reform program in 1978, policy makers decided to allow a general increase in imports to relieve the constrained demand of con- sumers. Several years after import restrictions on wheat and other grains were relaxed, imports grew to nearly 15 MMT (row 2). Rapid growth of grain yields in the early 1980s reversed these trends, and by 1985 China became a net exporter. with continued demand growth in the mid-1980s poor harvests drove net imports back up to more than 10 MMt by 1989 Soft demand and a resurgence of agricultural growth allowed imports to Copyright@ 1999. All rights reserved

Economic Development and Cultural Change fall once again to the point where China exported grain from 1992 to 1994. In the mid-1990s, the cycle repeated. Net imports reached historic highs of nearly 20 MMT in 1995 but were projected to decline in 1997. Unlike aggregate imports, trends for specific commodities have been steadier. Despite a primary reliance on domestic sources, China im ported more wheat than any other country in the world since the mid- 980s. Averaging 10 MMT of wheat per year means China accounts for 10%0-15% of the world trade(table 2, row 2). In contrast, except for 1995 and 1996(and 1989 for rice), China has exported maize and rice (rows 3 and 4). These recent trade patterns continued in 1997 IlL. Alternative Projections of Grain Demand and Supply in China Various attempts at projecting future trends in Chinas grain imports and exports have been published or are currently being used and periodically updated. The most striking feature of the projections of grain surpluses and deficits is their wide range. At one extreme, China is predicted to become a net exporter of grain. The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences forecasts that China will have the capacity to export 47 MMT in the year 2000. L. Chen and A. Buckwell construct a scenario where ey argue that China can move from being an importer of about 10 MMT in the mid-1980s to a net exporter of 17 MMT in the year 2000. Other analysts believe China will eventually become a net importer of grain, some predicting imports will rise gradually, others, more sharply. The medium-term forecasts of the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture predict China will be a moderate importer through 2005. K. Anderson et al. predict Chinas grain imports will rise to 33 MMT in the early twenty-first century. In contrast, another set of researchers predict China's grain imports will increase significantly. Other than Brown, who predicts imports could exceed 350 MMT by 2030, R. Garnaut and g. Ma project that, at per capita income growth rates of 6% to 7. 2%(rates under those experi enced between 1992 and 1994), China will require imports of between 50 to 90 MMT by 2000. C. Carter and F Zhong predict that consump- tion will outpace production, leaving a food balance deficit of more than 100 MMT by 2000. 0 Chen and Buckwell arrive at a high-growth sce- nario where China imports 59 MMT by 2000 Since all analysts are essentially forecasting from the same general base period, the predicted changes in the relative rates of growth of grain Brown projects actual declines in grain production of 0.6% per year(or a 20% decline by 2030), most of which comes from a nearly 50%o fall in sown area. Carter and Zhong project zero growth in production, while all other estimates of grain production growth are positive, ranging from 1. 1% to 1.8% for baseline or slow growth scenarios and to 2.9% for rapid growth scenarios Copyright 1999 All rights reserved

Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark W. Rosegrant 743 Variation in demand projections is similar. Several projections of demand growth are in the range of 1.0%0-1.7% per year, but demand growth rates well in excess of 2% are projected by Garnaut and Ma and hen and Buckwell. 5 The long-term projections from the Economic Re search Service predict much higher cereal imports; a number of the alter native scenarios forecast food balance shortfalls of 100 MMT. 6 Given the significant variation in both supply and demand projections, it is not surprising that projected net imports differ widely. The largest import projections result from highly pessimistic supply projections(Brown Carter and Zhong) and high demand projections( Garnaut and Ma; the Economic Research Service). 7 Projections by commodity are much less common. S. Fan, G. cra mer, and E. Wailes predict that rice exports will continue, mainly because of their assumption that demand elasticities will continue to be positive and rice production growth will continue at current levels. Unpublished projections by Fan and M. Agcaoili and recent long-range projections by the Economic Research Service forecast rising imports for wheat. Their estimates, however do not take into consideration some of the structural changes facing Chinas food economy. The most difficult part of evaluating current projections results that the sources of the parameters of the forecasting models, and forces behind the changes in important state variables(e.g, population and in- come growth) are not transparent. The parameters on which all of these grain projections are based (except for Carter and Zhong; and Fan, Cramer, and Wailes) are either partly or wholly synthetic. There is also little scope for assessing the effect of policy variables. With the excep- tion of the Economic Research Service and Fan and Agcaoili models, no other model can be used to systematically assess the effect of govern- mental policy. Fundamental forces in the economy, such as urbanization and market development, are ignored. Given the rapid structural change in Chinas economy-in-transition and the importance of policy in China, the omission of such important variables reduces the robustness of dictions from currently available models IV. Structural Change and Government Intervention in Chinas agriculture As Chinas economy continues to change and grow, one of the main uestions facing policy makers is how future patterns of utilization can e met most effectively. China is a country in rapid transition from a socialist system to one in which an increasing proportion of its goods and services, including food, are allocated by market forces. 2 It also is a country that is rapidly developing. There are many forces arising from these development and transition processes that will affect China's food economy. Any attempt to accurately forecast future supply and demand trends of food must account for these major economic forces Copyright 1999 All rights reserved

744 Economic Development and Cultural Change Demand Shifters: Income, Market Development, and Urbanization On the demand side, recent changes in the urban economy have made urban consumers almost entirely dependent on markets for their con- sumption needs. In this sector, prices and income changes most likely will be the fundamental force driving consumption pattern changes. Real income per capita for urban residents has risen rapidly in recent years jumping an average of more than 5% annually between 1985 and 1995 At the current average level of income for most urban residents, rice and wheat consumption rises very little with new increments in income; meat consumption, on the other hand, is still very much influenced by income Rural residents live in a different environment than their urban counterparts and exhibit different demand behavior. While rural income have grown more slowly since the mid-1980s, the demand for food grains and meat products has increased as incomes have risen. The av erage rural consumer, however, will spend less of the additional income on rice, wheat, and other staple food grains as he or she becomes richer during the development process Rural consumption markets are also less complete, but as transition improves the market environment, dietary habits may change. Farmers in many areas face limited choices in their consumption decisions since many of the products they desire on a daily basis, such as meat and fresh fruit, are not always available, even as incomes rise. In a sample of households that we drew from the national household income and expen diture survey, we found a strong and significant correlation between the level of consumption of primarily purchased goods, such as meat and fruit, and the level of market development, holding income and prices constant."Discontinuous free markets, lack of refrigeration, and gener ally high transaction costs for procuring food in rural areas affect rural consumption patterns in China. Even with rapid changes in rural mar- kets, in 1992 China's farmers still purchased only 46% of their food. As markets develop and activity on rural consumption markets increases apart from changes in income and prices, consumption patterns will be Across Asia, the behavior of consumers changes dramatically as countries urbanize 26 Urban dwellers consume less rice and demand higher levels of meats, milk products, and fish than do their rural coun- terparts, even after accounting for the differences in income and prices The ratio of urban to rural residents in China is changing fast. The urban population has grown from 19% of total population in 1980 to 28%in 1992. The effects of this population shift on consumption in China have been documented. While structural transformations of the economy should be accounted for in any predictions of future consumption pat- terns, few projections explicitly consider the differences in the consump- tion between rural and urban consumers Copyright@ 1999. All rights reserved

Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant 745 The case of wheat in China may unfold in an d patte when compared to China's Asian neighbors, although the dietary changes from migration will differ depending on what part of the country one is examining. Other countries in East and Southeast Asia always have experienced rising wheat demand with migration, since farmers in these countries produce and consume few wheat products. Migrants from southern rice-producing areas may be expected to follow this path since their current production and consumption patterns resemble those in neighboring countries. In contrast, city-bound migrants from north China consume very high levels of wheat, about 200 kilograms per cap ita in many northern provinces, levels that exceed or approach those of traditional wheat-producing, bread-eating nations, such as Pakistan, Tur- key, and Egypt. North China migrants will cut their consumption of wheat dramatically as they adopt the dietary patterns of urban dwellers Since the nations average rural consumption level exceeds that of urban areas(table 1), if the same magnitude of migration occurs in both the dampening net effect on wheat demand, in contrast to its other urbaniz- ing Asian neighbors 29 Supply Shifters: Technology, Investment, and Environmental Stress On the supply side, many sharp transitions are also under way. Above all, technological change needs to be considered explicitly, since it has been the engine of Chinas agricultural economy. 0 Chinas technological base grew rapidly during both the prereform and reform periods. A breakthrough in the engineering of hybrid rice, for example, pioneered by Chinese rice scientists in the 1970s, led to significantly increased yields in many parts of the country, and its use rapidly spread to nearly one-half of Chinas rice area by 1990. Wheat and maize enjoyed similar technological transformations. 3China's robust growth in the stock of re- search capital has been significantly responsible for these dramatic changes. Recent work has shown that the contribution of technology to crop growth equaled or exceeded that of the Household Responsibility System in the early reform period. Technological change contributed al most all crop growth by the late 1980s and early 1990s. 3 There is concern, however, that Chinas system may be suffering from neglect after more than a decade of reform. Real annual expendi tures on agricultural research fell between 1985 and 1990 before resum- th in 1990.The slowdown in growth in annual invest- ments in the late 1980s will result in slower growth in the overall stock of research in the 1990s and may affect production. Historic patterns of research expenditures as well as China's invest ment plans affect how the supply of rice, wheat, and maize will respond to future research expenditures. Agricultural planners have traditionally invested most heavily in rice, wheat, and maize research.36 Technological Copyright 1999 All rights reserved

746 Economic Development and Cultural Change breakthroughs and greater extension efforts in the production of rice and wheat have pushed their yields closer to their frontiers than in the case of maize. Interviews with breeders from multinational seed corporations ommonly reveal that the yield potential in all crops still exists, includ ing rice and wheat, but that it is higher in maize. A number of other factors similarly will affect future supply ment in agricultural infrastructure, especially irrigation, has been important determinant of Chinas agricultural growth in recent decades, 37 Irrigation investment and the stock of facilities have followed patterns similar to those for research, falling in the early reform period before recovering in recent years. Trends in environmental degradation, includ ing erosion, salinization, and loss of cultivated land show that it may be that considerable stress is being put on the agricultural land base. 3Ero- sion and salinization have increased since the 1970s, although in a some hat erratic pattern, and these factors have affected output of rice, wheat, maize, and other agricultural products. 9 V. A Framework for Forecasting Chinas Grain Supply and Demand The major components of this article's forecasting framework include a supply model for the rice, wheat, maize, other grain, and cash-cropping sectors of the agricultural economy, while demand models are specified separately for rural and urban consumers for rice, wheat, other grain, and six animal products. Real world price projections are generated by IMPACT, a partial equilibrium global trade model developed by M. Rose grant, M. Agcaoili, and N. Perez. o Grain supply is assumed to respond to the crop's own price, prices of other crops, quasi-fixed inputs, and the off-farm wage. Output also is a function of the stock of agricultural research, the stock of irrigation infrastructure and three environmental factors -erosion salinization and the breakdown of the local environment 4 The full set of results and detailed discussion of the model can be found in J. Huang, M. Rosegrant, and S. Rozelle. 42 Grain consumption is divided into two parts: grain that is directly consumed for food and that which is fed to animals and consumed indi- rectly. Direct food equations are divided into rice, wheat, and other Food Grain Demand Rural and urban food grain demand are modeled separately for several reasons. Consumption patterns are inherently different for rural and ban consumers. 4 Income differentials, expenditure growth, rates of hange of population, and other demographic factors also vary dramati ally between rural and urban regions. The effect of urbanization is ac counted for by multiplying per capita grain projections for each sector Copyright 1999. All rights reserved

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