复旦大学：《发展经济学》阅读材料与文献_MACHINERY AND CHINA'S NEXUS OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

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734 D. Lo and TM h chan Adopting an analytical approach that is typical of most available studies on the topic, Lardy(1992, p. 691), for one, frames his question this way Has the expansion of foreign trade been achieved largely through a state-driven export strategy in which sales on the international market are viewed simply as a means of financing much needed imports? This would imply, as in the pre- reform era, that exports were selected without much consideration of China's comparative advantage and that, as a result, expanding exports might contribute This approach is strictly in line with the standard neoliberal theory about export-led growth -that is, the thesis of trade regime neutrality, where the clear logical link between allocative efficiency and free trade rests with the principle of(endowment determined) comparative advantage(see, e.g., World Bank, 1987). Hence, the isolation of allocative efficiency as the only channel through which foreign trade could contribute to growth centralizes the question as to whether Chinas trade-growth nexus has been largely accounted for by a trade regime that is heading toward neutrality, for which Lardy gives an affirmative answer We find this approach problematic, even misleading in terms of policy implications We do not dispute the observation that, to date, the expansion of China's exports has been largely accounted for by labour-intensive products that accord with its ' given comparative advantage. Nor do we dispute the judgement that the exports expansion has contributed to economic growth. What we want to argue is: ()that the expansion of labour-intensive exports has had its intrinsic problems which could retard economic growth; (ii) that the main channel through which exports contribute to reform era, is largely unrelated to allocative efficiency; and (iii) that in recent years the export momentum, and hence the contribution to growth, has been increasingly sustained by exports that do not accord with China's'given'comparative advantage Taken together, our arguments imply that the Chinese nexus of foreign trade and economic growth contradicts, rather than validates, the neoliberal thesis of trade gime neutrality which explicitly rules out any form of strategic integration of late developing countries with the world market. I Our focus on the machinery sector serves to substantiate the above arguments. Thi ector encompasses most of China's fast-growing industries over the reform era, with the electronics industry being a representative one. During 1980-95, the machinery sector as a whole grew at an average annual rate of 17 per cent and increased its output share in Chinese industry from 17. 4 to 23.8 per cent, while the electronics industry alone grew at a rate of 23 per cent and increased its output share from 1.5to 3.7 per cent. Perhaps more important, the development of the electronics industry and the machinery sector in general has been especially illustrative of the contradictions is-a-vis relative scarcities--among industries'. As for strategic integration with the world market, it recisely to a situation where the trade regime involves selective discrimination: providing variable effective ates of protection, and export incentives, for different categories of goods. Thus, the division between the wo is essentially about the international specialization of an economy: should it strictly follow its comparative advantage, or should it attempt to create competitive advantage over specific industries 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

Adopting an analytical approach that is typical of most available studies on the topic, Lardy (1992, p. 691), for one, frames his question this way: Has the expansion of foreign trade been achieved largely through a state-driven export strategy in which sales on the international market are viewed simply as a means of ®nancing much needed imports? This would imply, as in the prereform era, that exports were selected without much consideration of China's comparative advantage and that, as a result, expanding exports might contribute little or nothing to economic growth. This approach is strictly in line with the standard neoliberal theory about export-led growth Ð that is, the thesis of trade regime neutrality, where the clear logical link between allocative eciency and free trade rests with the principle of (endowmentdetermined) comparative advantage (see, e.g., World Bank, 1987). Hence, the isolation of allocative eciency as the only channel through which foreign trade could contribute to growth centralizes the question as to whether China's trade-growth nexus has been largely accounted for by a trade regime that is heading towards neutrality, for which Lardy gives an armative answer. We ®nd this approach problematic, even misleading in terms of policy implications. We do not dispute the observation that, to date, the expansion of China's exports has been largely accounted for by labour-intensive products that accord with its `given' comparative advantage. Nor do we dispute the judgement that the exports expansion has contributed to economic growth. What we want to argue is: (i) that the expansion of labour-intensive exports has had its intrinsic problems which could retard economic growth; (ii) that the main channel through which exports contribute to growth has been the ®nancing of technology imports and hence, just like the prereform era, is largely unrelated to allocative eciency; and (iii) that in recent years the export momentum, and hence the contribution to growth, has been increasingly sustained by exports that do not accord with China's `given' comparative advantage. Taken together, our arguments imply that the Chinese nexus of foreign trade and economic growth contradicts, rather than validates, the neoliberal thesis of trade regime neutrality which explicitly rules out any form of strategic integration of late developing countries with the world market.1 Our focus on the machinery sector serves to substantiate the above arguments. This sector encompasses most of China's fast-growing industries over the reform era, with the electronics industry being a representative one. During 1980±95, the machinery sector as a whole grew at an average annual rate of 17 per cent and increased its output share in Chinese industry from 17.4 to 23.8 per cent, while the electronics industry alone grew at a rate of 23 per cent and increased its output share from 1.5 to 3.7 per cent. Perhaps more important, the development of the electronics industry and the machinery sector in general has been especially illustrative of the contradictions 1 Pack and Westphal (1986, p. 88) gives a standard de®nition of trade regime neutrality: `that policies should not selectively discriminate Ð that is, for tradeables, vis-aÁ-vis world prices, and for non-tradeables, vis-aÁ-vis relative scarcitiesÐ among industries'. As for strategic integration with the world market, it refers precisely to a situation where the trade regime involves selective discrimination: providing variable eective rates of protection, and export incentives, for dierent categories of goods. Thus, the division between the two is essentially about the international specialization of an economy: should it strictly follow its comparative advantage, or should it attempt to create competitive advantage over speci®c industries. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) 734 D. Lo and T. M. H. Chan

Machinery and China's Trade-Growth Nexus 735 embodied in the impact of trade on growth and the spectacular expansion of non- labour-intensive exports in recent years This anized in owing way. 2 presents evidence indicating that Chinas exports expansion is not reducible to the outcome of its ' natural comparative advantage, but is increasingly underpinned by the competitiveness of its industry. Section 3 turns to the growth side, presenting a schematic account of the growth pattern that centres around technological imports and development. On this basis, Section 4 offers a discussion of possible factors that have contributed to the formation of competitiveness of the dynamic industries. Section 5 concludes the pap 2 CHINAS MANUFACTURING EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE OR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE? Is Chinas exports expansion in the reform era reflecting mainly the realization of its given'or'natural comparative advantage? Lardy's affirmative answer is based on the observation that manufacturing products, which are considered to be more labour intensive in production than primary products, have accounted for a fast increasing share of total exports. Similarly, Panagariya(1993)corroborates by noting that within total exports light industrial products have shot up while heavy industrial products have declined, and light industry is considered to be labour-intensive relative to heavy industry Moving down to more disaggregated levels of the commodity composition of Chinas exports, however, the picture becomes complex. The data in Table I highlight the fact that, along with the increasing share of manufactures in total merchandise exports, there is an even more conspicuous expansion of the share of machinery and transport equipment in total manufacturing exports, from 8 per cent in 1988 to Table 1. Chinas manufacturing exports and imports (SITc classification), 1980-96 Sources:zIN(1996.pp.581-582);zZ(1997,p.128) (a)1980(b)1988c)1996(b)/(a)c)/(b) Exports(USS100 m Total merchandise (SITC 0-9) 1511 Total manufactures(SITC 5-8) 1291 Machinery and transport equipment 2.61 (SITC 7) Imports(USS100 m) T 1388 77 2.51 Total manufactures 131 452 3.45 2.51 Machinery and transport equipment 16 48 3.27 3.28 Total manufactures 0.69 Machinery and transport equipment 0.16 0.64 Notes: Strict king, manufactures are defined as SITC (standard international trade categorie category 68(non-ferrous metals)are not always available. Note that startin reviously under category 9(commodities not classified elsewhere)have been re- ous categories from 0 to 8. Hence, there is some degree of non-comparability of da hat year. 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-749(1998)

embodied in the impact of trade on growth and the spectacular expansion of nonlabour-intensive exports in recent years. This paper is organized in the following way. Section 2 presents evidence indicating that China's exports expansion is not reducible to the outcome of its `natural' comparative advantage, but is increasingly underpinned by the competitiveness of its industry. Section 3 turns to the growth side, presenting a schematic account of the growth pattern that centres around technological imports and development. On this basis, Section 4 oers a discussion of possible factors that have contributed to the formation of competitiveness of the dynamic industries. Section 5 concludes the paper. 2 CHINA'S MANUFACTURING EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE OR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE? Is China's exports expansion in the reform era re¯ecting mainly the realization of its `given' or `natural' comparative advantage? Lardy's armative answer is based on the observation that manufacturing products, which are considered to be more labourintensive in production than primary products, have accounted for a fast increasing share of total exports. Similarly, Panagariya (1993) corroborates by noting that within total exports light industrial products have shot up while heavy industrial products have declined, and light industry is considered to be labour-intensive relative to heavy industry. Moving down to more disaggregated levels of the commodity composition of China's exports, however, the picture becomes complex. The data in Table 1 highlight the fact that, along with the increasing share of manufactures in total merchandise exports, there is an even more conspicuous expansion of the share of machinery and transport equipment in total manufacturing exports, from 8 per cent in 1988 to Table 1. China's manufacturing exports and imports (SITC classi®cation), 1980±96. Sources: ZTN (1996, pp. 581±582); ZTZ (1997, p. 128). (a) 1980 (b) 1988 (c) 1996 (b)/(a) (c)/(b) Exports (US$100 m) Total merchandise (SITC 0±9) 181 475 1511 2.62 3.18 Total manufactures (SITC 5±8) 90 331 1291 3.68 3.90 Machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7) 8 28 353 3.50 12.61 Imports (US$100 m) Total merchandise 200 553 1388 2.77 2.51 Total manufactures 131 452 1134 3.45 2.51 Machinery and transport equipment 51 167 548 3.27 3.28 Exports±imports ratio Total merchandise 0.91 0.85 1.09 Total manufactures 0.69 0.73 1.14 Machinery and transport equipment 0.16 0.17 0.64 Notes: Strictly speaking, manufactures are de®ned as SITC (standard international trade categories) 5 to 8 less 68. But data of category 68 (non-ferrous metals) are not always available. Note that starting from 1992 items that were previously under category 9 (commodities not classi®ed elsewhere) have been re-classi®ed under the various categories from 0 to 8. Hence, there is some degree of non-comparability of data before and after that year. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) Machinery and China's Trade±Growth Nexus 735

736 D. Lo and.h chan 27 per cent in 1996. It is of course well known that machinery and transport equip- ment is a broad category encompassing both labour-intensive and capital-intensive products. Yet the critical issue is whether these products are more, or less, labour intensive than other manufactures. In this regard, the fact that major world exporters of machinery and transport equipment are unexceptionally developed countries, with the top five(Japan, the US, Germany, France and the UK)accounting for almost 60 per cent of the world total in 1994 (World Trade Organization, International Trade 95, p. 102), should be taken for reference Moving further down, Table 2 gives more disaggregated data classified under Chinas statistical system. Note that within the total of manufacturing exports the share of mechanical and electronic products increased from 19 per cent in 1988 to 37 per cent in 1996. Put another way, in this period, the former category increased by hree times while the latter by seven times. Meanwhile, electronic exports increased by nine times while computer exports, which are a further disaggregated category under electronics, by 59 times. Again, it is noted that major word exporters of electronics (and computer products)are either developed or newly industrializing economies which conceivably have international comparative advantage very different from Chinas. Thus what Table 1 and Table 2 indicate at least at an intuitive level is an export pattern where more capital-intensive (or more high-tech)industries tend to expand faster. 2 p D): and (1 April 1997, p 1): GJSB (Il January (a)1988 (b)1996 (b)/(a) Exports(USS100 m 331.10 129141 Mechanical and electronic products 61.50 482.10 Electronic products 19.15 Computer products l08 Imports(USS100 m) 452.07 Mechanical and electronic products 207.00 Electronic products 79 3 echanical and electronic products This observation is in line more comprehensi Chinas exports as a whole e of descriptive ession analyses, Jiang (1993, ch. 11). for instance. identifies three of Chinas export ce in the 1980s; namely: (i) within and electronic products which are characterized by high capita and technology intensity relative to others have experienced the fastest expansion; ()within labour- and textile and clothing, relatively me he fastest exports expansion; and(iii) for most sectors of Chir mainly those with the highest capital and technology intensity in each sector. In view of our Table I and Table 2, it appears that feature()is even more pronounced in the 1990s 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

27 per cent in 1996. It is of course well known that machinery and transport equipment is a broad category encompassing both labour-intensive and capital-intensive products. Yet the critical issue is whether these products are more, or less, labourintensive than other manufactures. In this regard, the fact that major world exporters of machinery and transport equipment are unexceptionally developed countries, with the top ®ve (Japan, the US, Germany, France and the UK) accounting for almost 60 per cent of the world total in 1994 (World Trade Organization, International Trade 1995, p. 102), should be taken for reference. Moving further down, Table 2 gives more disaggregated data classi®ed under China's statistical system. Note that within the total of manufacturing exports the share of mechanical and electronic products increased from 19 per cent in 1988 to 37 per cent in 1996. Put another way, in this period, the former category increased by three times while the latter by seven times. Meanwhile, electronic exports increased by nine times while computer exports, which are a further disaggregated category under electronics, by 59 times. Again, it is noted that major word exporters of electronics (and computer products) are either developed or newly industrializing economies, which conceivably have international comparative advantage very dierent from China's. Thus what Table 1 and Table 2 indicate, at least at an intuitive level, is an export pattern where more capital-intensive (or more `high-tech') industries tend to expand faster.2 2 This observation is in line with some more comprehensive studies of the commodity composition of China's exports as a whole. Based on a range of descriptive and regression analyses, Jiang (1993, ch. 11), for instance, identi®es three `anomalies' of China's export performance in the 1980s; namely: (i) within total manufacturing exports, mechanical and electronic products which are characterized by high capital and technology intensity relative to others have experienced the fastest expansion; (ii) within labourintensive sectors like light industry and textile and clothing, relatively more capital-and technologyintensive products have experienced the fastest exports expansion; and (iii) for most sectors of Chinese industry, the exported products are mainly those with the highest capital and technology intensity in each sector. In view of our Table 1 and Table 2, it appears that feature (i) is even more pronounced in the 1990s. Table 2. China's manufacturing exports and imports (alternative classi®cation), 1988±96. Sources: Lo (1997, ch. 1); ZTN (1996, pp. 581±582); ZTZ (1997, p. 127); ZDB (4 March 1997, p. 1); and (1 April 1997, p. 1); GJSB (11 January 1997, p. 1). (a) 1988 (b) 1996 (b)/(a) Exports (US$100 m) Total manufactures 331.10 1291.41 3.90 Mechanical and electronic products 61.50 482.10 7.84 Electronic products 19.15 184.10 9.61 Computer products 1.08 64.70 59.90 Imports (US$100 m) Total manufactures 452.07 1133.98 2.51 Mechanical and electronic products 207.00 613.60 2.96 Electronic products 52.79 158.30 3.00 Computer products 6.90 34.30 4.97 Exports±imports ratio Total manufactures 0.73 1.14 Mechanical and electronic products 0.30 0.79 Electronic products 0.36 1.16 Computer products 0.16 1.89 #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) 736 D. Lo and T. M. H. Chan

Machinery and Chinas Trade-Growth Nexus 737 A further observation that can be made from table i and table 2 concerns the exports-imports ratio. It can be seen that, between 1988 and 1996, for the indicated trade categories the general trend is the larger the increase in the ratio the faster the expansion of exports. Whilst the exports-imports ratio of all manufactures increased by 41 percentage points, that of mechanical and electronic products, electronic products alone and computer products increased by 49, 80 and 173 percentage points respectively. To some extent, this development is related to the growth of foreign funded processing or assembling operations in China. However, on a priori grounds one cannot rule out the validity of inferring from it that the Chinese economy is heading towards a pattern of intra-industry, rather than inter-industry, international specialization. This presents yet another anomaly for the standard theory of compara tive advantage Sceptics of course can go on to argue that the intra-industry specialization might still be divided in a way that China is engaged mainly in the labour-intensive opera tions of each industry, even if the industry concerned is on average characterized by high capital and technology intensity. Constrained by the availability of data, it is difficult to investigate into the trade and production characteristics of the intra- industry division of labour. Nevertheless, focusing on the output composition Chinas electronics industry, Figure I presents a trend of increasing vertical integr tion which runs counter to such argument. Between 1988 and 1995, the output share of industrial equipment and components -both characterized by higher capital and technology intensity-increases by 14 and 5 percentage points, respectively. As result, the output composition in 1995 contrasts sharply with that of the mid-1980 hen the Chinese electronics industry was overwhelmingly skew to the production of downstream consumer produc One possible way of explicitly examining the factor intensity of the trade categories is to check the respective capital-labour ratios on the production side. Lardy(1992) connection, it is of note that the expansion of electronics exports, and ex of mechanical in general, has been a salient feature of East Asian industrialization, both in the four earlier of Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and the second-tier NICs(Malays Thailand, Indonesia and the like). Chinas expanding exports of these products might therefore seem to be just in line with the ' normal pattern of inter disagreement among scholars as to whether the East Asian experience is indeed normal in the world cale-particularly in the case of electronics production, where outside this handful number of countries orld has been excluded from engaging Istitutional environment (especially the role of state policy vis-a-vis the world market) within which electronics production has developed in East Asia is even a matter of disagreement( Ernst and OConnor 4 Citing a World Bank study, Lardy (1994, p. 32), for instance, infers that( Chinas)exports of telecom- unications equipment and domestic electrical equipment, which might appear to be more capital. intensive, are based overwhelmingly on processing and assembly-type activity. Thus they too are labor. intensive since imported components account for about four-fifths of the value of exports in total merchandise exports: 7I per cem r orts is much higher in mechanical and elec is true that the ratio of pr roducts than in processing exports, measured as the ratio of net-to-gross processing exports, is also much higher in the her than in the latter: 43 per cent versus 17 per cent in the same year. Moreover, both of the two have ad substantial increases in recent years: for total processing exports, the ratio increased to 21 per cent in 26 per cent in 1996, for pi ng exports of mechanical and electronic products, the ratio 45 per cent in 1995(data from ZWZB, 19 March 1995, p 3: ZJGN 1995, pp 1-66: GJSB 1997, p 1: ZJGN 1996, pp 1-50). Hence, it is premature to judge that Chinas exports of and electronic products are labour-intensive, at least in comparison with the rest of Chinese exports. 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-749(1998)

A further observation that can be made from Table 1 and Table 2 concerns the exports±imports ratio. It can be seen that, between 1988 and 1996, for the indicated trade categories the general trend is the larger the increase in the ratio the faster the expansion of exports. Whilst the exports-imports ratio of all manufactures increased by 41 percentage points, that of mechanical and electronic products, electronic products alone and computer products increased by 49, 80 and 173 percentage points, respectively. To some extent, this development is related to the growth of foreignfunded processing or assembling operations in China. However, on a priori grounds, one cannot rule out the validity of inferring from it that the Chinese economy is heading towards a pattern of intra-industry, rather than inter-industry, international specialization. This presents yet another anomaly for the standard theory of comparative advantage.3 Sceptics of course can go on to argue that the intra-industry specialization might still be divided in a way that China is engaged mainly in the labour-intensive operations of each industry, even if the industry concerned is on average characterized by high capital and technology intensity.4 Constrained by the availability of data, it is dicult to investigate into the trade and production characteristics of the intraindustry division of labour. Nevertheless, focusing on the output composition of China's electronics industry, Figure 1 presents a trend of increasing vertical integration which runs counter to such argument. Between 1988 and 1995, the output share of industrial equipment and components Ð both characterized by higher capital and technology intensity Ð increases by 14 and 5 percentage points, respectively. As a result, the output composition in 1995 contrasts sharply with that of the mid-1980s when the Chinese electronics industry was overwhelmingly skew to the production of downstream consumer products. One possible way of explicitly examining the factor intensity of the trade categories is to check the respective capital-labour ratios on the production side. Lardy (1992) 3 In this connection, it is of note that the expansion of electronics exports, and exports of mechanical products in general, has been a salient feature of East Asian industrialization, both in the four `earliermovers' of Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and the second-tier NICs (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the like). China's expanding exports of these products might therefore seem to be just in line with the `normal' pattern of international development. Nevertheless, it is a matter of disagreement among scholars as to whether the East Asian experience is indeed normal in the world scale Ð particularly in the case of electronics production, where outside this handful number of countries the vast majority of the developing world has been excluded from engaging in the production. And the institutional environment (especially the role of state policy vis-aÁ-vis the world market) within which electronics production has developed in East Asia is even a matter of disagreement (Ernst and O'Connor 1992; Hanna et al. 1996). 4 Citing a World Bank study, Lardy (1994, p. 32), for instance, infers that `(China's) exports of telecommunications equipment and domestic electrical equipment, which might appear to be more capitalintensive, are based overwhelmingly on processing and assembly-type activity. Thus they too are laborintensive since imported components account for about four-®fths of the value of exports'. It is true that the ratio of processing exports is much higher in mechanical and electronic products than in total merchandise exports: 71 per cent versus 47 per cent in 1994. But the ratio of domestic value-added in processing exports, measured as the ratio of net-to-gross processing exports, is also much higher in the former than in the latter: 43 per cent versus 17 per cent in the same year. Moreover, both of the two have had substantial increases in recent years: for total processing exports, the ratio increased to 21 per cent in 1995 and 26 per cent in 1996, for processing exports of mechanical and electronic products, the ratio increased to 45 per cent in 1995 (data from ZWZB, 19 March 1995, p. 3; ZJGN 1995, pp. 1±66; GJSB, 11 January 1997, p. 1; ZJGN 1996, pp. 1±50). Hence, it is premature to judge that China's exports of mechanical and electronic products are labour-intensive, at least in comparison with the rest of Chinese exports. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) Machinery and China's Trade±Growth Nexus 737

738 D. Lo and. h chan 100.00 Industrial 50.00 40.00 10.00 Figure 1. Output composition of Chinas electronics industry, 1983-95(sectoral shares at 1980 constant-price gross output value). Sources: ZDGN-D and ZdGn (various years): ZDB (5 March 1996 p 4) and Jiang(1993)are among the very few studies in the literature that deal with this topic, both covering mainly the second half of the 1980s. The results which they have obtained do not agree with each other, largely due to their different estimation methodologies as well as different ways of aggregating data in the attempts to achieve correspondence between trade and production categories. A further shortcoming that might serIous sly limit the usefulness of such studies concerns the comparability of the capital stocks of different industries. It is a salient feature of China's manufacturing sector that some industries(e. g, electronics) are much newer than others. As a result, the value figures of capital might obscure the fact that capital productivity differs widely across industries, especially because of problems of pricing and depreciation that are inherited from the pre-reform era. In any event, it can be seen from Table 3 that the capital-labour ratio of the mechanical and electronics industry and that of he electronics industry alone have both outstripped the manufacturing sector as a whole, and, in the latter case, the gap has widened over time able 4 presents an alternative measure that is simple yet effective in indicating the relative capital and technology intensity in production: the per worker net output value of the mechanical and electronics industry, the electronics industry, and the manufacturing sector as a whole. For the mechanical and electronics industry, its abour productivity has been close to the manufacturing sector average. In the case of he electronics industry alone, its labour productivity has persistently outstripped the manufacturing sector by a wide margin since the mid-1980s. These reinforce the refutation of the argument that the industries under consideration might be more labour-intensive than the rest of the manufacturing sector. As a matter of fact, it is customary in trade analysis to treat industries having an above-average value-added 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

and Jiang (1993) are among the very few studies in the literature that deal with this topic, both covering mainly the second half of the 1980s. The results which they have obtained do not agree with each other, largely due to their dierent estimation methodologies as well as dierent ways of aggregating data in the attempts to achieve correspondence between trade and production categories. A further shortcoming that might seriously limit the usefulness of such studies concerns the comparability of the capital stocks of dierent industries. It is a salient feature of China's manufacturing sector that some industries (e.g., electronics) are much newer than others. As a result, the value ®gures of capital might obscure the fact that capital productivity diers widely across industries, especially because of problems of pricing and depreciation that are inherited from the pre-reform era. In any event, it can be seen from Table 3 that the capital±labour ratio of the mechanical and electronics industry and that of the electronics industry alone have both outstripped the manufacturing sector as a whole, and, in the latter case, the gap has widened over time. Table 4 presents an alternative measure that is simple yet eective in indicating the relative capital and technology intensity in production: the per worker net output value of the mechanical and electronics industry, the electronics industry, and the manufacturing sector as a whole. For the mechanical and electronics industry, its labour productivity has been close to the manufacturing sector average. In the case of the electronics industry alone, its labour productivity has persistently outstripped the manufacturing sector by a wide margin since the mid-1980s. These reinforce the refutation of the argument that the industries under consideration might be more labour-intensive than the rest of the manufacturing sector. As a matter of fact, it is customary in trade analysis to treat industries having an above-average value-added Figure 1. Output composition of China's electronics industry, 1983±95 (sectoral shares at 1980 constant-price gross output value). Sources: ZJDGN-D and ZDGN (various years): ZDB (5 March 1996 p. 4). #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) 738 D. Lo and T. M. H. Chan

Machinery and Chinas Trade-Growth Nexus 739 Table 3. Capital-labour ratio (yuan per worker), 1980-95. Sources: ZGJTN (993, pp 90-102 116-128);zIN(1994p.378-379,397;zTN(1995,pp.38,401);zIN(1996,pp.414;427). a) Manufacturing (b)Mechanical and (c) Electronics (b)/(a)(c)/(a) electronics industry ndustry 1006 3798 21058 43842 71035 54753 1995 72005 120474 Notes: Capital-labour ratio is defined as total capital divided by the year-end number of workers fo 1980-92 figures, and by the year-average number of workers for 1993-95 figures; where, total capital is the of net value of fixed assets and working capital, both year-average Manufacturing= All industries- Extraction Water supply- Electricity and gas. Mechanical and electronics= Metal products +Machinery Transport equipment Electrical machinery Elect Electronics refers to the electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. Data cover township-and- ting industrial enterprises Table 4. Labour productivity (yuan per worker), 1980-95. Sources: ZGJTN (1993, pp 90- 102,142-154;, ZGJTN(1994,pp.8l,129-144,213-243);zIN(1995,pp.388,401);zIN (1996,p.414,427) (a)Manufacturing (b) Mechanical and (c) Electronics (b)/(a)(c)/(a) lectronics industry 2271 1987 6628 9256 6738 10505 2345 4512 19628 0.94 17433 17237 32831 Labour productivity is defined as the net output value at current prices divided by the year-end er of workers for 1980-92 figures, and as the industrial value-added at current prices divided by the average number of workers for 1993-95 figures. Manufacturing= All industries- Extraction-Water supply Electricity and gas. Mechanical and electronics= Metal products Machinery Transport equipment Electrical machi- Electronics refers to the electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. Data cover township-and- above independently accounting industrial enterprises. per employee as capital-intensive and those having the measure 10 per cent below the average as labour-intensive( World Bank, 1994; Annexes l l and 7. 2). On this count China's electronics industry is definitely capital intensive while its wider machinery ector cannot be classified as labour intensive 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

per employee as capital-intensive and those having the measure 10 per cent below the average as labour-intensive (World Bank, 1994; Annexes 1.1 and 7.2). On this count, China's electronics industry is de®nitely capital intensive while its wider machinery sector cannot be classi®ed as labour intensive. Table 3. Capital-labour ratio (yuan per worker), 1980±95. Sources: ZGJTN (1993, pp. 90±102, 116±128); ZTN (1994, pp. 378±379, 397); ZTN (1995, pp. 388, 401); ZTN (1996, pp. 414; 427). (a) Manufacturing (b) Mechanical and electronics industry (c) Electronics industry (b)/(a) (c)/(a) 1980 7769 8427 9106 1.08 1.17 1985 9666 10067 13638 1.04 1.41 1987 11937 12417 17117 1.04 1.43 1988 13696 13798 19467 1.01 1.42 1989 16670 16519 23798 0.99 1.43 1990 19213 18750 26998 0.98 1.41 1991 21893 21058 33189 0.96 1.52 1992 33937 33456 57252 0.99 1.69 1993 43551 43842 71035 1.01 1.63 1994 54753 56358 95733 1.03 1.75 1995 69359 72005 120474 1.04 1.74 Notes: Capital±labour ratio is de®ned as total capital divided by the year-end number of workers for 1980±92 ®gures, and by the year-average number of workers for 1993±95 ®gures; where, total capital is the sum of net value of ®xed assets and working capital, both year-average. Manufacturing All industries7Extraction7Water supply7Electricity and gas. Mechanical and electronics Metal products Machinery Transport equipment Electrical machinery Electronics Instruments. Electronics refers to the electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. Data cover township-andabove independently accounting industrial enterprises. Table 4. Labour productivity (yuan per worker), 1980±95. Sources: ZGJTN (1993, pp. 90± 102, 142±154); ZGJTN (1994, pp. 81, 129±144, 213±243); ZTN (1995, pp. 388, 401); ZTN (1996, pp. 414, 427). (a) Manufacturing (b) Mechanical and electronics industry (c) Electronics industry (b)/(a) (c)/(a) 1980 3102 2271 2393 0.73 0.77 1985 4089 3900 5474 0.95 1.34 1987 4734 4273 5939 0.90 1.25 1988 5791 5278 8362 0.91 1.44 1989 6628 6077 9256 0.92 1.40 1990 6677 5861 9044 0.88 1.35 1991 7479 6738 10505 0.90 1.40 1992 9201 8486 11634 0.92 1.26 1993 15399 14512 19628 0.94 1.27 1994 17448 16399 26412 0.94 1.51 1995 17433 17237 32831 0.99 1.88 Notes: Labour productivity is de®ned as the net output value at current prices divided by the year-end number of workers for 1980±92 ®gures, and as the industrial value-added at current prices divided by the year-average number of workers for 1993±95 ®gures. Manufacturing All industries7Extraction 7Water supply7Electricity and gas. Mechanical and electronics Metal products Machinery Transport equipment Electrical machinery Electronics Instruments. Electronics refers to the electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. Data cover township-andabove independently accounting industrial enterprises. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) Machinery and China's Trade±Growth Nexus 739

740 D. Lo and. h chan At this point, one serious query can arise regarding the comparability between the trade and production categories. It might well be possible that the production function of the exporting firms is rather different from those producing for the domestic markets-that is, there might exist a dualistic structure of the industries Inder consideration. If this is the case, the fact that the electronics industry (and the broader machinery sector)is capital intensive relative to other manufacturing activity then would not imply that its exports are similarly capital intensive. Unfortunately, as far as we know, there does not exist any direct empirical evidence from which this query can be verified. What we do have in hand is the indirect evidence regarding the exports-to-output ratios of the industries concerned. As can be seen from Table 5, the exports-to-output ratios of the electronics industry and the broader machinery sector have both exceeded those of all industries since the mid 1980s, and the differentials have increased substantially over time. The implication is that, if there does exist a dualistic structure of production where mechanical and electronic exports embody a much lower level of capital-intensity than those sold in the domestic market, the increased exports-to-output ratios(relative to the ratios of al industries) would tend to pull down the relative capital-labour ratios and the relative labour productivity of the industries concerned. Hence, taken together, the data in Tables 3 through 5 indicate that such dualistic structure is unlikely to exist-unless Table 5. Exports-to-output ratios, 1980-95. Sources: All industries figures from ZTN, arious years; mechanical industry figures from ZGN, various years; electronics industry igures from ZDGN, various years. All industries Machinery and electronics Electronics (b)(b)(a)(a) (b)(b)(a) 212.35% 5400 3.63%839 03.58%83 1.61% 2273.91%91 2493.85%1072 3.54%109 4.58% 3154.14% 5.32% 4.12%1882 111946886.15%2056 13 9777.07%2619 11.40% l1.48% 6.54 912.40% 929%4989 53310.68%869 0.96% 6625296711.14%6183 75212.16%1134 20.95% 0.81%8929 10761205%1710 48402 43258.94% 7017687241243%18031275615.28% 39.95% 918941065311.59%218983671 %3373136740.53% Notes: (a)=gross value of industrial output at current prices(100 m yuan); (b)=exports value at an), converted from USS data at official exchange rates. Output data cover enterprises at all vels, i.e. including establishments at and below the village level. and those that are not registered as dependently accounting industri ses. Output data of mechanical and electronics industry ar ed from constant-price figu ng the ex-factory price index of machinery as the deflator. data of the electronics in nterprises both inside and outside the administration of the try of Electronics Industry. dustry cover ie 85 export data of electronics are estimated on the basis of exports by enterprises under the Ministry of Electronics Industry. 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

At this point, one serious query can arise regarding the comparability between the trade and production categories. It might well be possible that the production function of the exporting ®rms is rather dierent from those producing for the domestic markets Ð that is, there might exist a dualistic structure of the industries under consideration. If this is the case, the fact that the electronics industry (and the broader machinery sector) is capital intensive relative to other manufacturing activity then would not imply that its exports are similarly capital intensive. Unfortunately, as far as we know, there does not exist any direct empirical evidence from which this query can be veri®ed. What we do have in hand is the indirect evidence regarding the exports-to-output ratios of the industries concerned. As can be seen from Table 5, the exports-to-output ratios of the electronics industry and the broader machinery sector have both exceeded those of all industries since the mid- 1980s, and the dierentials have increased substantially over time. The implication is that, if there does exist a dualistic structure of production where mechanical and electronic exports embody a much lower level of capital-intensity than those sold in the domestic market, the increased exports-to-output ratios (relative to the ratios of all industries) would tend to pull down the relative capital-labour ratios and the relative labour productivity of the industries concerned. Hence, taken together, the data in Tables 3 through 5 indicate that such dualistic structure is unlikely to exist Ð unless Table 5. Exports-to-output ratios, 1980±95. Sources: All industries ®gures from ZTN, various years; mechanical industry ®gures from ZJGN, various years; electronics industry ®gures from ZDGN, various years. All industries Machinery and electronics Electronics (a) (b) (b)/(a) (a) (b) (b)/(a) (a) (b) (b)/(a) 1980 5154 135 2.62% 894 21 2.35% 78 Ð Ð 1981 5400 196 3.63% 839 30 3.58% 83 1 1.61% 1982 5811 227 3.91% 917 36 3.93% 84 3 3.73% 1983 6461 249 3.85% 1072 38 3.54% 109 5 4.58% 1984 7617 315 4.14% 1315 49 3.73% 164 9 5.32% 1985 9716 400 4.12% 1882 50 2.66% 246 8 3.20% 1986 11194 688 6.15% 2056 87 4.23% 265 23 8.55% 1987 13813 977 7.07% 2619 144 5.50% 396 45 11.40% 1988 18224 1231 6.75% 3661 229 6.26% 620 71 11.48% 1989 22017 1395 6.34% 4739 310 6.54% 796 99 12.40% 1990 23924 2222 9.29% 4989 533 10.68% 869 182 20.96% 1991 26625 2967 11.14% 6183 752 12.16% 1134 238 20.95% 1992 34599 3740 10.81% 8929 1076 12.05% 1710 378 22.11% 1993 48402 4325 8.94% 13822 1308 9.46% 2149 465 21.65% 1994 70176 8724 12.43% 18031 2756 15.28% 2665 1065 39.95% 1995 91894 10653 11.59% 21898 3671 16.76% 3373 1367 40.53% Notes: (a) gross value of industrial output at current prices (100 m yuan); (b) exports value at current pices (100 m yuan), converted from US$ data at ocial exchange rates. Output data cover enterprises at all levels, i.e. including establishments at and below the village level, and those that are not registered as independently accounting industrial enterprises. Output data of mechanical and electronics industry are converted from constant-price ®gures by using the ex-factory price index of machinery as the de¯ator. Output data of the electronics industry cover enterprises both inside and outside the administration of the Ministry of Electronics Industry. The 1981±85 export data of electronics are estimated on the basis of exports by enterprises under the Ministry of Electronics Industry. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) 740 D. Lo and T. M. H. Chan

Machinery and Chinas Trade-Growth Nexus 741 the labour intensity of the mechanical and electronic exports exceed those sold in the domestic market by an extremely wide margin Our analysis thus makes a necessary correction to the picture of China's exports composition painted by the World Bank (1994). This study, which provides comprehensive analysis of the relative labour productivity of the industries corresponding to Chinas exports, covers the period up to 1990 and concludes that for the near term, Chinas major export opportunities mainly lie within the labor intensive products '(p 255) This conclusion appears to be farfetched in view of its own findings. In the main, the study emphasizes the exports expansion of labour intensive products like clothing, footwear and toys and sporting goods, which combined to increase their share in total exports from 10. 4 per cent in 1980 to 16.7 per cent in 1985 and 31.6 per cent in 1990. Yet the study also recognizes that the sector whose share in China's exports grew the fastest over 1985-90 was actually electrical machinery-from 1 2 per cent in 1980 to 1.9 per cent in 1985 and 10.5 per cent in 1990-and that virtually all products in this sector are classified as capital intensive according to the criterion of relative value added per employee(World Bank, 1994; Table I in Annex 7.2). The main reasons for drawing the conclusion, therefore, seer to be two: first, that by 1990 labour-intensive products still accounted r a over whelming share of total exports, and, second, that compared with the early or mid 1980s the exports share of these products was on a rising trend The acceleration of the rate of growth of non-labour intensive exports like electrica machinery, however, implies that a linear projection of this kind might not be appro- priate. In other words, the growth of exports that do not accord with the given comparative advantage implies that there is no pre-determined, natural path of exports growth. The fast increasing exports share of mechanical and electronic products in the subsequent years through 1996 appears to confirm such a judgement 3 THE GROWTH SIDE: THE CENTRALITY OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT That a significant and increasing share of China's manufacturing exports is not plained by the country's endowment-determined comparative advantage implies that we need to turn to look for the sources of competitiveness from the production side of the trade-growth nexus. In this section, we give a schematic account of the pattern of China's industrial growth over the 1980-96 period that puts technology imports and development at the centre. This is to provide the background for our more detailed analysis of the insights that can be derived from the case of the electronics industry. In the first place, however, it is intended to assess the impact of trade on growth from an alternative perspective Table 6 presents a picture of structural change of Chinese industry, which contrasts arply with the evolution of the country's exports composition. It is particularly noted that the industries that have been chiefly responsible for the expansion of facturing exports, i.e., textiles, clothing and leather prc are in fac main loser in terms of their output shares in Chinese industry as a whole-from 18 per cent in 1980 to 12 per cent in 1996. In contrast, the mechanical and electronic industry has its output share increased from 22 to 27 per cent. But this sector started exports expansion only from 1988 and was in fact a laggard in this respect before 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

the labour intensity of the mechanical and electronic exports exceed those sold in the domestic market by an extremely wide margin. Our analysis thus makes a necessary correction to the picture of China's exports composition painted by the World Bank (1994). This study, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the relative labour productivity of the industries corresponding to China's exports, covers the period up to 1990 and concludes that `for the near term, China's major export opportunities mainly lie within the laborintensive products.' (p. 255) This conclusion appears to be farfetched in view of its own ®ndings. In the main, the study emphasizes the exports expansion of labourintensive products like clothing, footwear and toys and sporting goods, which combined to increase their share in total exports from 10.4 per cent in 1980 to 16.7 per cent in 1985 and 31.6 per cent in 1990. Yet the study also recognizes that the sector whose share in China's exports grew the fastest over 1985±90 was actually electrical machinery Ð from 1.2 per cent in 1980 to 1.9 per cent in 1985 and 10.5 per cent in 1990 Ð and that virtually all products in this sector are classi®ed as capital intensive according to the criterion of relative value added per employee (World Bank, 1994; Table 1 in Annex 7.2). The main reasons for drawing the conclusion, therefore, seem to be two: ®rst, that by 1990 labour-intensive products still accounted for a overwhelming share of total exports, and, second, that compared with the early or mid- 1980s the exports share of these products was on a rising trend. The acceleration of the rate of growth of non-labour intensive exports like electrical machinery, however, implies that a linear projection of this kind might not be appropriate. In other words, the growth of exports that do not accord with the given comparative advantage implies that there is no pre-determined, natural path of exports growth. The fast increasing exports share of mechanical and electronic products in the subsequent years through 1996 appears to con®rm such a judgement. 3 THE GROWTH SIDE: THE CENTRALITY OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT That a signi®cant and increasing share of China's manufacturing exports is not explained by the country's endowment-determined comparative advantage implies that we need to turn to look for the sources of competitiveness from the production side of the trade-growth nexus. In this section, we give a schematic account of the pattern of China's industrial growth over the 1980±96 period that puts technology imports and development at the centre. This is to provide the background for our more detailed analysis of the insights that can be derived from the case of the electronics industry. In the ®rst place, however, it is intended to assess the impact of trade on growth from an alternative perspective. Table 6 presents a picture of structural change of Chinese industry, which contrasts sharply with the evolution of the country's exports composition. It is particularly noted that the industries that have been chie¯y responsible for the expansion of manufacturing exports, i.e., textiles, clothing and leather products, are in fact the main loser in terms of their output shares in Chinese industry as a wholeÐ from 18 per cent in 1980 to 12 per cent in 1996. In contrast, the mechanical and electronics industry has its output share increased from 22 to 27 per cent. But this sector started exports expansion only from 1988 and was in fact a laggard in this respect before #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) Machinery and China's Trade±Growth Nexus 741

742 D. Lo and.h chan Table 6. Structural change in Chinese industry (%), 1980-96. Sources: ZGJTN (1993 pp.142-144,148-149,153-154);ZTN(1997,p.424) (a)1980(b)1988(c)1996(b)-(a)(c)-(b) I. Light industry-using farm products as 34.56 222 raw materials 2. Light industry-using 11.22 14.84 14.37 0.47 products as raw materials lustry-extract +0.62 4. Heavy industry--raw materials +177 1. 1. Textile, clothing and leather industry 5. 1. Mechanical and electronics industry 26.0827.16+4.12 5.1.1. Electronics industry 4.86 +1.45 Notes: Figures are sectoral shares of Chinese industry as a whole in terms of gross output value at current rices Data cover township-and-above independently accounting industrial enterprises. Mechanical and electronics industry encompasses the following sectors: metal products, machinery, transport equipment, electrical equipment, electronics and instruments. A minor proportion of these sectors are classified unde Go tegory (2)in the table-i.e, light industries using non-farm products as raw materials. Electronics refers he electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. hen-as one can see it by looking back at Table 1, where the growth of machinery and transport equipment exports during 1980-88 lagged behind total manufacturing exports. This mis-match of structural change in output and exports in the 1980s appears to contradict the expectation of standard neoclassical theory which empha sizes the allocative efficiency gains through the transfer of resources to the more dynamic, higher productivity exporting sector as the main contribution of exports to growth. What, then, is the main channel through which foreign trade contributes to Chinas economic growth? Our account begins with a phenomenal development over the period that has beer felt by virtually the entire Chinese population: the consumption revolution signified by the explosive growth of a wide range of consumer durables. Starting from almost nowhere in the early 1980s, by the end of the decade, China became one of the worlds biggest producers of consumer durables like television receivers, washing machines, household refrigerators, air conditioners, cassette recorders, microwave ovens, electric pokers, etc In the case of colour TV sets, the annual output volume surged from 0.03 million in 1980 to 10.38 million in 1988. This pace of growth is also especially visible in washing machines and refrigerators, another two representative items: the former increased its annual output volume from 0. 25 million to 10.47 million, while he latter from 0.05 million to 7.58 million Two factors are discernible as having been chiefly responsible for the consumption revolution. The first, concerning the supply side, is technology imports. Within a few years, a huge production capacity was built up through the importation of numerous turn-key plants or production lines. In the case of colour TV receivers, for example, 110 production lines of different designs were imported during 1984-88. The second factor concerns the demand side Underpinned by China's specific pattern of income distribution, the domestic demand condition was all-favourable for the consumption revolution as a huge number of consumers were out to purchase similar products at the same time. There was readily available a mass consumption market of enormous 01998 John Wiley Sons, Ltd J.mnt.Dev.10,733-74901998)

then Ð as one can see it by looking back at Table 1, where the growth of machinery and transport equipment exports during 1980±88 lagged behind total manufacturing exports. This mis-match of structural change in output and exports in the 1980s appears to contradict the expectation of standard neoclassical theory which emphasizes the allocative eciency gains through the transfer of resources to the more dynamic, higher productivity exporting sector as the main contribution of exports to growth. What, then, is the main channel through which foreign trade contributes to China's economic growth? Our account begins with a phenomenal development over the period that has been felt by virtually the entire Chinese population: the `consumption revolution' signi®ed by the explosive growth of a wide range of consumer durables. Starting from almost nowhere in the early 1980s, by the end of the decade, China became one of the world's biggest producers of consumer durables like television receivers, washing machines, household refrigerators, air conditioners, cassette recorders, microwave ovens, electric cookers, etc. In the case of colour TV sets, the annual output volume surged from 0.03 million in 1980 to 10.38 million in 1988. This pace of growth is also especially visible in washing machines and refrigerators, another two representative items: the former increased its annual output volume from 0.25 million to 10.47 million, while the latter from 0.05 million to 7.58 million. Two factors are discernible as having been chie¯y responsible for the consumption revolution. The ®rst, concerning the supply side, is technology imports. Within a few years, a huge production capacity was built up through the importation of numerous turn-key plants or production lines. In the case of colour TV receivers, for example, 110 production lines of dierent designs were imported during 1984±88. The second factor concerns the demand side. Underpinned by China's speci®c pattern of income distribution, the domestic demand condition was all-favourable for the consumption revolution as a huge number of consumers were out to purchase similar products at the same time. There was readily available a mass consumption market of enormous Table 6. Structural change in Chinese industry (%), 1980±96. Sources: ZGJTN (1993, pp. 142±144, 148±149, 153±154); ZTN (1997, p. 424). (a) 1980 (b) 1988 (c) 1996 (b)± (a) (c)±(b) 1. Light industry Ð using farm products as raw materials 34.56 32.34 28.67 ÿ2.22 ÿ3.67 2. Light industryÐ using non-farm products as raw materials 11.22 14.84 14.37 3.62 ÿ0.47 3. Heavy industryÐ extraction 7.37 5.99 6.61 ÿ1.38 0.62 4. Heavy industryÐ raw materials 22.31 20.38 22.15 ÿ1.93 1.77 5. Heavy industryÐ manufacturing 24.54 26.45 28.20 1.91 1.75 1.1. Textile, clothing and leather industry 18.21 14.84 12.13 ÿ3.37 ÿ2.71 5.1. Mechanical and electronics industry 21.96 26.08 27.16 4.12 1.08 5.1.1. Electronics industry 1.62 3.41 4.86 1.79 1.45 Notes: Figures are sectoral shares of Chinese industry as a whole in terms of gross output value at current prices. Data cover township-and-above independently accounting industrial enterprises. Mechanical and electronics industry encompasses the following sectors: metal products, machinery, transport equipment, electrical equipment, electronics and instruments. A minor proportion of these sectors are classi®ed under category (2) in the tableÐ i.e., light industries using non-farm products as raw materials. Electronics refers to the electronics and telecommunication equipment industry. #1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998) 742 D. Lo and T. M. H. Chan

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复旦大学：《发展经济学》阅读材料与文献_MACHINERY AND CHINA'S NEXUS OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH