The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton,New Jersey,will have sun or rain on a day one month away.At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about,tiny deviations from the average.By 12.01,those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale,and so on up to the size of the globe. 参考译文 世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了 任何价值。 原因是蝴蝶效应。对于小片的恶劣天气-一对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小"可以意味着雷 暴雨和暴风雪任何预测的质量会很快下降。错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的 徵状，从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。 现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里。既使是这样，有些开始时 的资料也不得不依靠推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。假设地球上可 以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每 个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分， 一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上12：01、12：02、12：03时可 能出现的情况。 计算机无法推断出1个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竞是晴天还是雨天。正午时 分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、任何偏平均值的变化。到12：01时，那些 波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差。很快这种偏差会增加到尺10英的范围，如此等等， 直到全球的范围。 Lesson15 Secrecy in industry工业中的秘密 Two factors weigh heavily against the effectiveness of scientific research in industry.One is the general atmosphere of secrecy in which it is carried out,the other the lack of freedom of the individual research worker.In so far as any inquiry is a secret one,it naturally limits all those engaged in carrying it out from effective contact with their fellow scientists either in other countries or in universities,or even, often enough,in other departments of the same firm.The degree of secrecy naturally varies considerably.Some of the bigger firms are engaged in researches which are of such general and fundamental nature that it is a positive advantage to them not to keep them secret.Yet a great many processes depending on such research are sought for with complete secrecy until the stage at which patents can be taken out.Even more processes are never patented at all but kept as secret processes.This applies particularly to chemical industries,where chance discoveries play a much larger part than they do in physical and mechanical industries. Sometimes the secrecy goes to such an extent that the whole nature of the research cannot be mentioned.Many firms,for instance,have great difficulty in obtaining technical or scientific books from libraries because they are unwilling to have names entered as having taken out such and such a book,for fear the agents of other firms should be able to trace the kind of research they are likely to be undertaking. 参考译文 有两个因素严重地妨碍工业中科学研究的效率：一是科研工作中普遍存在的保密气氛：二是研 究人员缺乏个人自由。任何一项研究都涉及到保密，那些从事科研的人员自然受到了限制。他们不 能和其他国家、其他大学、甚至往往不能与本公司的其他部门的同行们进行有效的接触。保密程度 自然差别很大。某些大公司进行的研究属于一般和基础的研究，因此不保密对他们才有利。然而， 依赖这种研究的很多工艺程序是在完全保密的情况下进行的，直到可以取得专利权的阶段为止。更 多的工艺过程根本就不会取得专利权，而是作为秘方保存着。在这化学工业方面尤为突出。同物理 和机械工业相比，化学工业中偶然发现的机会要多得多。有时，保密竞达到了这样的程度，即连研 究工作的整个性质都不准提及。比如，很多公司向图书馆借阅科技书籍时感到困难，因为它们不愿The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations f rom the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe. 参考译文 世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了 任何价值。 原因是蝴蝶效应。对于小片的恶劣天气 -- 对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小”可以意味着雷 暴雨和暴风雪 -- 任何预测的质量会很快下降。错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的 徵状，从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。 现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔 60 英里。既使是这样，有些开始时 的资料也不得不依靠推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。假设地球上可 以布满传感器，每个相隔 1 英尺，并按 1 英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每 个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分， 一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上 12：01、12：02、12：03 时可 能出现的情况。 计算机无法推断出 1 个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。正午时 分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、任何偏平均值的变化。到 12：01 时，那些 波动就已经会在 1 英尺远的地方造成偏差。很快这种偏差会增加到尺 10 英的范围，如此等等，一 直到全球的范围。 Lesson 15 Secrecy in industry 工业中的秘密 Two factors weigh heavily against the ef fectiveness of scientific research in industry. One is the general atmosphere of secrecy in which it is carried out, the other the lack of f reedom of the individual research worker. In so far as any inquiry is a secret one, it naturally limits all those engaged in carrying it out f rom ef fective contact with their fellow scientists either in other countries or in universities, or even, of ten enough, in other departments of the same firm. The degree of secrecy naturally varies considerably. Some of the bigger firms are engaged in researches which are of such general and fundamental nature that it is a positive advantage to them not to keep them secret. Yet a great many processes depending on such research are sought for with complete secrecy until the stage at which patents can be taken out. Even more processes are never patented at all but kept as secret processes. This applies particularly to chemical industries, where chance discoveries play a much larger part than they do in physical and mechanical industries. Sometimes the secrecy goes to such an extent that the whole nature of the research cannot be mentioned. Many firms, for instance, have great dif ficulty in obtaining technical or scientific books f rom libraries because they are unwilling to have names entered as having taken out such and such a book, for fear the agents of other firms should be able to trace the kind of research they are likely to be undertaking. 参考译文 有两个因素严重地妨碍工业中科学研究的效率：一是科研工作中普遍存在的保密气氛；二是研 究人员缺乏个人自由。任何一项研究都涉及到保密，那些从事科研的人员自然受到了限制。他们不 能和其他国家、其他大学、甚至往往不能与本公司的其他部门的同行们进行有效的接触。保密程度 自然差别很大。某些大公司进行的研究属于一般和基础的研究，因此不保密对他们才有利。然而， 依赖这种研究的很多工艺程序是在完全保密的情况下进行的，直到可以取得专利权的阶段为止。更 多的工艺过程根本就不会取得专利权，而是作为秘方保存着。在这化学工业方面尤为突出。同物理 和机械工业相比，化学工业中偶然发现的机会要多得多。有时，保密竟达到了这样的程度，即连研 究工作的整个性质都不准提及。比如，很多公司向图书馆借阅科技书籍时感到困难，因为它们不愿