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Assessing the safety of routes in a regional DOI:10.3969/.issn.10096744.2012.01.016 http://journal.seu.edu.cnｈｔｔｐ：／／ｊｏｕｒｎａｌ．ｓｅｕ．ｅｄｕ．ｃｎ ｗｉｔｈｓｐａｔｉｏｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｃｏｒｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓ［Ｊ］．Ｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎ ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＰａｒｔＣ：ＥｍｅｒｇｉｎｇＴｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅｓ，２０１１，１９ （４）：６０６ ６１６．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ｔｒｃ．２０１０．１０．００２． ［３７］ ＫｕｒｚｈａｎｓｋｉｙＡ Ａ，ＶａｒａｉｙａＰ．Ｇｕａｒａｎｔｅｅｄｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ ａｎｄｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｓｔａｔｅｏｆａｒｏａｄｎｅｔｗｏｒｋ［Ｊ］． ＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＰａｒｔＣ：ＥｍｅｒｇｉｎｇＴｅｃｈｎｏｌｏ ｇｉｅｓ，２０１２，２１（１）：１６３ １８０．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ｔｒｃ． ２０１１．０８．００７． ［３８］ＰａｎＴＬ，ＳｕｍａｌｅｅＡ，ＺｈｏｎｇＲＸ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｓｈｏｒｔｔｅｒｍ ｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓｔａｔｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｂａｓｅｄｏｎＴｅｍｐｏｒａｌＳｐａｔｉａｌｃｏｒｒｅ ｌａｔｉｏｎ［Ｊ］．ＩＥＥＥＴｒａｎｓａｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｎＩｎｔｅｌｌｉｇｅｎｔＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒ ｔａｔｉｏｎＳｙｓｔｅｍｓ，２０１３，１４（３）：１２４２ １２５４．ＤＯＩ：１０． １１０９／ｔｉｔｓ．２０１３．２２５８９１６． ［３９］ＪｅｎｅｌｉｕｓＥ，ＫｏｕｔｓｏｐｏｕｌｏｓＨＮ．Ｔｒａｖｅｌｔｉｍｅｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ ｆｏｒｕｒｂａｎｒｏａｄｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｓｕｓｉｎｇｌｏｗｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙｐｒｏｂｅｖｅ ｈｉｃｌｅｄａｔａ［Ｊ］．ＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＰａｒｔＢ：Ｍｅｔｈ ｏｄｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ，２０１３，５３：６４ ８１．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ｔｒｂ． ２０１３．０３．００８． ［４０］ＫｏｎｇＱＪ，ＺｈａｏＱＫ，ＷｅｉＣ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｔｔｒａｆｆｉｃ ｓｔａｔｅｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｌａｒｇｅｓｃａｌｅｕｒｂａｎｒｏａｄｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｓ ［Ｊ］．ＩＥＥＥＴｒａｎｓａｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｎＩｎｔｅｌｌｉｇｅｎｔＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍｓ，２０１３，１４（１）：３９８ ４０７．ＤＯＩ：１０．１１０９／ ｔｉｔｓ．２０１２．２２１８２３７． ［４１］ＬｉＬ，ＣｈｅｎＸＱ，ＺｈａｎｇＬ．Ｍｕｌｔｉｍｏｄｅｌｅｎｓｅｍｂｌｅｆｏｒ ｆｒｅｅｗａｙｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓｔａｔｅｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｓ［Ｊ］．ＩＥＥＥＴｒａｎｓａｃ ｔｉｏｎｓｏｎＩｎｔｅｌｌｉｇｅｎｔＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＳｙｓｔｅｍｓ，２０１４，１５ （３）：１３２３ １３３６．ＤＯＩ：１０．１１０９／ｔｉｔｓ．２０１４．２２９９５４２． ［４２］ＺｈｕＧＹ，ＬｕＧＮ，ＹａｎｇＣＧ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｔｈｅ ｃｏｍｐｒｅｈｅｎｓｉｖｅｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓｔａｔｅｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎ ｍｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｋｅｄ ｗｉｔｈｄｒｉｖｅｒｓ’ｐｅｒｃｅｐｔｉｏｎｕｎｄｅｒｔｈｅｖｅｈｉｃｌｅｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｉｎｇ ［Ｊ］．ＰｅｒｓｏｎａｌａｎｄＵｂｉｑｕｉｔｏｕｓＣｏｍｐｕｔｉｎｇ，２０１４，１８ （８）：１９５５ １９６１．ＤＯＩ：１０．１００７／ｓ００７７９０１４０８０１ ４． ［４３］ＸｕＤＷ，ＷａｎｇＹＤ，ＬｉＨＪ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｔｈｅｍｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔ ｏｆｒｏａｄｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓｔａｔｅｓｕｎｄｅｒｈｉｇｈｄａｔａｌｏｓｓｒａｔｅ［Ｊ］． Ｍｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔ，２０１５，６９：１３４ １４５．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ． ｍｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔ．２０１５．０３．０２０． ［４４］赵新勇，安实，丛浩哲．基于路网抗毁可靠度的交通 突发事件态势分析［Ｊ］．交通运输系统工程与信息， ２０１３，１３（５）：７９ ８５．ＤＯＩ：１０．３９６９／ｊ．ｉｓｓｎ．１００９ ６７４４．２０１３．０５．０１２． ＺｈａｏＸＹ，ＡｎＳ，ＣｏｎｇＨＺ．Ｔｒａｆｆｉｃｉｎｃｉｄｅｎｔｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎ ｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｂａｓｅｄｏｎｒｏａｄｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｒｅｌｉａｂｉｌｉｔｙｏｆｉｎｖｕｌ ｎｅｒａｂｉｌｉｔｙ［Ｊ］．ＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＥｎｇｉ ｎｅｅｒｉｎｇａｎｄＩｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎＴｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙ，２０１３，１３（５）： ７９ ８５．ＤＯＩ：１０．３９６９／ｊ．ｉｓｓｎ．１００９６７４４．２０１３．０５． ０１２．（ｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅ） ［４５］ＹｏｕｎｇＷ，ＳｏｂｈａｎｉＡ，ＬｅｎｎéＭ Ｇ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎ ｏｆｓａｆｅｔｙ：Ａｒｅｖｉｅｗｏｆｔｈｅｓｔａｔｅｏｆｔｈｅａｒｔｉｎｒｏａｄｓａｆｅｔｙ ｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｍｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇ［Ｊ］．ＡｃｃｉｄｅｎｔＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ＆Ｐｒｅｖｅｎ ｔｉｏｎ，２０１４，６６：８９ １０３．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ａａｐ．２０１４． ０１．００８． ［４６］ＤｉｊｋｓｔｒａＡ．Ａｓｓｅｓｓｉｎｇｔｈｅｓａｆｅｔｙｏｆｒｏｕｔｅｓｉｎａｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌ ｎｅｔｗｏｒｋ［Ｊ］．ＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＰａｒｔＣ：Ｅｍｅｒ ｇｉｎｇＴｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅｓ，２０１３，３２：１０３ １１５．ＤＯＩ：１０． １０１６／ｊ．ｔｒｃ．２０１２．１０．００８． ［４７］ＤｉｊｋｓｔｒａＡ，ＭａｒｃｈｅｓｉｎｉＰ，ＢｉｊｌｅｖｅｌｄＦ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｄｏｃａｌ ｃｕｌａｔｅｄｃｏｎｆｌｉｃｔｓｉｎｍｉｃｒｏｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｍｏｄｅｌｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｎｕｍ ｂｅｒｏｆｃｒａｓｈｅｓ？［Ｊ］．ＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＲｅｃｏｒｄ： ＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆｔｈｅＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＢｏａｒｄ，２０１０， ２１４７（１）：１０５ １１２．ＤＯＩ：１０．３１４１／２１４７１３． ［４８］ＥｌｖｉｋＲ．Ｏｐｅｒａｔｉｏｎａｌｃｒｉｔｅｒｉａｏｆｃａｕｓａｌｉｔｙｆｏｒｏｂｓｅｒｖａ ｔｉｏｎａｌｒｏａｄｓａｆｅｔｙｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｓｔｕｄｉｅｓ［Ｊ］．Ｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａ ｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＲｅｃｏｒｄ：ＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆｔｈｅＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎ ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＢｏａｒｄ，２００７，２０１９（１）：７４ ８１．ＤＯＩ：１０． ３１４１／２０１９１０． ［４９］ＨａｕｅｒＥ．Ｃａｕｓｅ，ｅｆｆｅｃｔａｎｄｒｅｇｒｅｓｓｉｏｎｉｎｒｏａｄｓａｆｅｔｙ： Ａ ｃａｓｅｓｔｕｄｙ［Ｊ］．ＡｃｃｉｄｅｎｔＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ＆Ｐｒｅｖｅｎｔｉｏｎ， ２０１０，４２（４）：１１２８ １１３５．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ａａｐ． ２００９．１２．０２７． ［５０］ ＬａｕｒｅｓｈｙｎＡ，Ｓｖｅｎｓｓｏｎ￾，ＨｙｄéｎＣ．Ｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｏｆ ｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓａｆｅｔｙ，ｂａｓｅｄｏｎｍｉｃｒｏｌｅｖｅｌｂｅｈａｖｉｏｕｒａｌｄａｔａ： Ｔｈｅｏｒｅｔｉｃａｌｆｒａｍｅｗｏｒｋａｎｄｆｉｒｓｔｉｍｐｌｅｍｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎ［Ｊ］． ＡｃｃｉｄｅｎｔＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ＆Ｐｒｅｖｅｎｔｉｏｎ，２０１０，４２（６）：１６３７ １６４６．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ａａｐ．２０１０．０３．０２１． ［５１］ＹｕＲＪ，ＡｂｄｅｌＡｔｙＭ．Ａｎｏｐｔｉｍａｌｖａｒｉａｂｌｅｓｐｅｅｄｌｉｍ ｉｔｓｓｙｓｔｅｍｔｏａｍｅｌｉｏｒａｔｅｔｒａｆｆｉｃｓａｆｅｔｙｒｉｓｋ［Ｊ］．Ｔｒａｎｓ ｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＰａｒｔＣ：ＥｍｅｒｇｉｎｇＴｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅｓ， ２０１４，４６：２３５ ２４６．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ｔｒｃ．２０１４．０５． ０１６． ［５２］ ＹｕＲＪ，ＡｂｄｅｌＡｔｙＭ．Ｕｔｉｌｉｚｉｎｇｓｕｐｐｏｒｔｖｅｃｔｏｒｍａ ｃｈｉｎｅｉｎｒｅａｌｔｉｍｅｃｒａｓｈｒｉｓｋｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎ［Ｊ］．Ａｃｃｉｄｅｎｔ Ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ＆Ｐｒｅｖｅｎｔｉｏｎ，２０１３，５１：２５２ ２５９．ＤＯＩ：１０． １０１６／ｊ．ａａｐ．２０１２．１１．０２７． ［５３］ＺｈａｎｇＮ，ＨｕａｎｇＨ，ＳｕＢＮ，ｅｔａｌ．Ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｄｙｎａｍ ｉｃｒｏａｄｒｉｓｋｆｏｒｐｅｄｅｓｔｒｉａｎｅｖａｃｕａｔｉｏｎ［Ｊ］．ＰｈｙｓｉｃａＡ： ＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓａｎｄｉｔｓＡｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓ，２０１５，４３０： １７１ １８３．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０１６／ｊ．ｐｈｙｓａ．２０１５．０２．０８２． ［５４］ＣｏｌｌｉｎｓＡＪ，ＲｏｂｉｎｓｏｎＲＭ，ＦｏｙｔｉｋＰ，ｅｔａｌ．Ｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｎｇ ａｓｉｍｐｌｅｔｒａｆｆｉｃｉｎｃｉｄｅｎｔｍｏｄｅｌｆｏｒｒａｐｉｄｅｖａｃｕａｔｉｏｎａｎａｌｙ ｓｉｓ［Ｊ］．ＩｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎ，２０１６，４ （３）：１５ ３２．ＤＯＩ：１０．１４２５７／ｉｊｔ．２０１６．４．３．０２． ［５５］ ＮｏｇａｌＭ，Ｏ’ＣｏｎｎｏｒＡ，ＭａｒｔｉｎｅｚＰａｓｔｏｒＢ，ｅｔａｌ． Ｎｏｖｅｌｐｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｓｔｉｃｒｅｓｉｌｉｅｎｃｅａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔｆｒａｍｅｗｏｒｋｏｆ ｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｓａｇａｉｎｓｔｅｘｔｒｅｍｅｗｅａｔｈｅｒｅｖｅｎｔｓ ［Ｊ］．ＡＳＣＥＡＳＭＥＪｏｕｒｎａｌｏｆＲｉｓｋａｎｄＵｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙｉｎ Ｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍｓ， ＰａｒｔＡ： ＣｉｖｉｌＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ， ２０１７，３（３）： ０４０１７００４． ＤＯＩ：１０．１０６１／ａｊｒｕａ６． ００００９０８． ［５６］ＬｉｕＭ，ＡｇａｒｗａｌＪ，ＢｌｏｃｋｌｅｙＤ．Ｖｕｌｎｅｒａｂｉｌｉｔｙｏｆｒｏａｄ ｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｓ［Ｊ］．ＣｉｖｉｌＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇａｎｄＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍｓ，２０１６，３３（２）：１４７ １７５．ＤＯＩ：１０．１０８０／ １０２８６６０８．２０１６．１１４８１４２． ［５７］杨露萍，钱大琳．道路交通网络脆弱性研究［Ｊ］．交 通运输系统工程与信息，２０１２，１２（１）：１０５ １１０． ＤＯＩ：１０．３９６９／ｊ．ｉｓｓｎ．１００９６７４４．２０１２．０１．０１６． 第 ２期 陆建，等：道路交通网络安全风险辨识研究进展 ４１１