D0L:10.13374/.issn1001-053x.2013.11.004 第35卷第11期 北京科技大学学报 Vol.35 No.11 2013年11月 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Nov.2013 基于黏滑失稳与突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型 郭德勇)凶，李佳乃)，王彦凯2) 1)中国矿业大学（北京）资源与安全工程学院，北京100083 2)山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司，长治046102 ☒通信作者，E-mail:kikfg@cumtb.cdu.cn 摘要在矿井瓦斯地质研究基础上，根据煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理和突变理论，建立了煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳一突变理 论预警模型.以瓦斯因素和地质因素为煤与瓦斯突出预警的控制变量，将其归类分化为相应的预警指标，提出了突出危 险等级划分指标的界限，利用模糊数学推导出突变模糊隶属度函数，选择对应突变模型计算出突出警情的突变级数.以 潞安环能股份有限公司余吾煤业为例对煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳一突变预警模型的可行性进行了验证 关键词煤与瓦斯突出：预警：黏滑失稳：突变理论 分类号TD713 Early-warning model of coal and gas outburst based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory GU0De-yong)☒，LI Jia-na),WANG Yan-ka2) 1)School of Resource and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing),Beijing 100083,China 2)Shanxi Lu'an Environment and Energy Development Corporation Ltd.,Changzhi 046102,China Corresponding author,E-mail:kikfg@cumtb.edu.cn ABSTRACT According to gas-geological research,an early-warning model of coal and gas outburst was built based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory.In the model,gas factors and geological factors were considered as control variables of coal and gas outburst early-warning and were classified to the corresponding early warning indexes,then the coal and gas outburst grades of danger were determined and their warning index limits were divided.Fuzzy mathematics was used to deduce the mutation fuzzy membership function,and the catastrophe series,which can reflect the outburst. was worked out by means of choosing the corresponding mutation model.An example of Yuwu Coal Mine of Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co.,Ltd.verified the feasibility of this early-warning model. KEY WORDS coal and gas outburst;early warning;stick-slip instability;catastrophe theory 煤与瓦斯突出是由多种因素共同作用造成的矿 黏滑机理科学地解释了瓦斯突出的突变过程及突 井地质灾害-2，对煤与瓦斯突出准确预测是有 出的动力特征，突变理论是描述突发事件的数学方 效防治瓦斯事故的前提，煤与瓦斯突出预测方法主 法1-12，将煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理与突变理论有机地 要建立在对瓦斯突出机理及动力特征的全面把握基 结合，可以为煤与瓦斯突出预警提供新的技术途径 础上，其中建立科学的瓦斯突出预测模型是有效预 1煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理与突变理论 测的关键，通过对瓦斯突出预警指标B-司的数学 处理形成了多种预警模型，如模糊综合评价法同、 1.1煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理 灰色关联法可、可拓聚类法s)和神经网络法回 煤与瓦斯突出过程摩擦滑动模拟实验发现在 煤与瓦斯突出是一个突变的过程，煤与瓦斯突出 煤与瓦斯突出过程中存在黏滑失稳现象.对含瓦斯 收稿日期：2013-05-10 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41172144)：教育部科学技术研究重大项目(311022)第 35 卷 第 11 期 北 京 科 技 大 学 学 报 Vol. 35 No. 11 2013 年 11 月 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Nov. 2013 基于黏滑失稳与突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型 郭德勇1) ，李佳乃1)，王彦凯2) 1) 中国矿业大学 (北京) 资源与安全工程学院，北京 100083 2) 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司，长治 046102 通信作者，E-mail: kjkfg@cumtb.edu.cn 摘 要 在矿井瓦斯地质研究基础上，根据煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理和突变理论，建立了煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳 – 突变理 论预警模型. 以瓦斯因素和地质因素为煤与瓦斯突出预警的控制变量，将其归类分化为相应的预警指标，提出了突出危 险等级划分指标的界限，利用模糊数学推导出突变模糊隶属度函数，选择对应突变模型计算出突出警情的突变级数. 以 潞安环能股份有限公司余吾煤业为例对煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳 – 突变预警模型的可行性进行了验证. 关键词 煤与瓦斯突出；预警；黏滑失稳；突变理论 分类号 TD713 Early-warning model of coal and gas outburst based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory GUO De-yong1) , LI Jia-nai1), WANG Yan-kai2) 1) School of Resource and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China 2) Shanxi Lu’an Environment and Energy Development Corporation Ltd., Changzhi 046102, China Corresponding author, E-mail: kjkfg@cumtb.edu.cn ABSTRACT According to gas-geological research, an early-warning model of coal and gas outburst was built based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory. In the model, gas factors and geological factors were considered as control variables of coal and gas outburst early-warning and were classified to the corresponding early warning indexes, then the coal and gas outburst grades of danger were determined and their warning index limits were divided. Fuzzy mathematics was used to deduce the mutation fuzzy membership function, and the catastrophe series, which can reflect the outburst, was worked out by means of choosing the corresponding mutation model. An example of Yuwu Coal Mine of Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. verified the feasibility of this early-warning model. KEY WORDS coal and gas outburst; early warning; stick-slip instability; catastrophe theory 煤与瓦斯突出是由多种因素共同作用造成的矿 井地质灾害 [1−2]，对煤与瓦斯突出准确预测是有 效防治瓦斯事故的前提，煤与瓦斯突出预测方法主 要建立在对瓦斯突出机理及动力特征的全面把握基 础上，其中建立科学的瓦斯突出预测模型是有效预 测的关键，通过对瓦斯突出预警指标 [3−5] 的数学 处理形成了多种预警模型，如模糊综合评价法 [6]、 灰色关联法 [7]、可拓聚类法 [8] 和神经网络法 [9] . 煤与瓦斯突出是一个突变的过程，煤与瓦斯突出 黏滑机理科学地解释了瓦斯突出的突变过程及突 出的动力特征[10]，突变理论是描述突发事件的数学方 法[11−12]，将煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理与突变理论有机地 结合，可以为煤与瓦斯突出预警提供新的技术途径. 1 煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理与突变理论 1.1 煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理 煤与瓦斯突出过程摩擦滑动模拟实验发现在 煤与瓦斯突出过程中存在黏滑失稳现象. 对含瓦斯 收稿日期：2013-05-10 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目 (41172144)；教育部科学技术研究重大项目 (311022) DOI:10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2013.11.004