模型建立D第n周需求量,均值为1的波松分布A P(Dn=k)=ek(k=012…) D 0 2 3 P0.3680.368018400610.019 S第n周初库存量(状态变量)S∈{2状态转移阵 移规律0 状态转 <S Pu p12 P13 n D.≥S P=p21P2P23 Pn1=P(SmH=lSn=1)=P(D2=0)=0368 P31P32P3 P2=P(Sn1=2S=1)=0 036800632 P13=P(S 036803680264 n+1 =1)=P(Dn≥1)=0.632 0.18403680448 P23=P(Sn1=3S=3)=P(D=0)+P(D,≥3)=0448模型建立 Dn~第n周需求量，均值为1的波松分布 ( ) / ! ( 0,1,2 ) P Dn = k = e−1 k k = " Dn 0 1 2 3 >3 P 0.368 0.368 0.184 0.061 0.019 Sn~第n周初库存量(状态变量 ) 状态转 移规律 ⎩⎨⎧ ≥ − < + = n n n n n n n D S S D D S S 3, , 1 p11 = P(Sn+1 =1Sn =1) = P(Dn = 0) = 0.368 ( 2 1) 0 p12 = P Sn+1 = Sn = = p13 = P(Sn+1 = 3Sn =1) = P(Dn ≥1) = 0.632 ∈{1,2,3} n S ⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤ ⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡ = 0.184 0.368 0.448 0.368 0.368 0.264 0.368 0 0.632 ⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤ ⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡ = 31 32 33 21 22 23 11 12 13 p p p p p p p p p P 状态转移阵 ( 3 3) ( 0) ( 3) 0.448 p33 = P Sn+1 = Sn = = P Dn = + P Dn ≥ = … …